bevgo wrote:any chance Danny could make it to the gulf as an intact storm or remnats that could regenerate and be a threat?
It's possible. If you look at the EC ensembles at 850mb the energy sort of splits with some remnant energy looking like it ends up stretched out near the upper tx coast feeding into an onshore flow. GFS at 500 drives a deep and narrow trough in the south. It keeps it there for a while, possibly too long. Then it flattens the pattern and goes to an even deeper trough whose isobars almost connect with the Pacific. Not sure if it's not resolving an upper level low, if it's accurate or if its overdoing a trough in the east too early (particularly since its an El Niño year) or if it senses possible surface low pressure. I was hoping the WPAC would give some hints but there are mixed signals with a recurve (trough in the east a week later) followed by a recurve with a bend back toward Asia which argues somewhat for a building ridge a few days later. But with the CPAC Storm liable to get entrained into the westerlies and get its moisture into the North American pattern sooner, that resulting trough could be Great Lakes centered initially. That says moisture ahead of it and probably more into the se of there if there isn't massive swly flow in front of Danny's remnants to just turn them up and out.
In other words, you are going to have to watch the regional and global patterns evolve over the next few days before knowing if anyone in the U.S. is going to get rain out of the remnants. It should be clear when Danny or its remnant wave are at the big islands around Monday. <--- not much help, but there are a lot of things going on around the globe that could complicate the 7-10 day pattern, and too many for any high percentage guesses this early.
