ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[OuterBanker]

And I would like to add kudos to the HWRF. It turned out right after all. Maybe a lucky fluke.
Could NOAA have hit a home run with its upgrade?
Jury still out of GFS, but it doesn't look good.

[SunnyThoughts]

Sorry if already mentioned, but any reason why the NHC is doing advisories every 6 hours instead of every 3 hours. Seems like in past years they've done it every 3 hours.

If and when watches/warnings go out, it will change to every 3 hours.

[SFLcane]

Canadian...

[SouthFLTropics]

And I would like to add kudos to the HWRF. It turned out right after all. Maybe a lucky fluke.
Could NOAA have hit a home run with its upgrade?
Jury still out of GFS, but it doesn't look good.

Agreed on the HWRF...big

[sunnyday]

I just heard on a Florida radio station that Danny is not going to be a threat to the US and especially not to Florida.
Is that for certain?

[beagleagle23]

Thanks for the answers guys...

[FireRat]

If Danny becomes larger, he could create his own environment and be more resistant to shear down the road!
Hitting the DR would no doubt likely weaken it big time, Lets hope that shear is in place near FL and the Bahamas, because Danny would gorge off virtually "untouched" 85+ degree water in this region.

just my personal opinion guys! This is not official forecast or suggestion

Latest Visible...He's finally entering the CONUS Visible View Range on satellite

[tropicwatch]

Canadian...

Whoa, does that mean Florida is going to have a north easter

[FireRat]

Almost looks like Florida winter front in August lol

[SouthFLTropics]

Canadian...

Whoa, does that mean Florida is going to have a north easter

That's a massive trough for this time of year. It looks like October.

[Nimbus]

The shear a week away looks like the classic savior trough that digs and picks up even strong systems.
As long as the trough reaches Florida first it would stall and wait for any approaching tropical systems.
Looks like a frontal boundary back around the four corners region that could sweep east.
Timing isn't a sure thing with a hurricane modifying the environment dynamically.

[stormlover2013]

Models aren't good with troughs this early in the season, and especially august, they are better come october

[vbhoutex]

I just heard on a Florida radio station that Danny is not going to be a threat to the US and especially not to Florida.
Is that for certain?

NOTHING is ever for certain with a tropical cyclone!! However, the probabilities of that statement being correct are currently very high imho.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Danny looks to be weakening right now. Everyone else see that latest image? Eye is well to the south of convection.

[Nimbus]

Recon said Danny is going through an Eye Wall Replacement Cycle.
Southern quadrant inflow looks a little dry but I don't think the core has been undercut.

[YoshiMike]

After about a WEEK of figuring out what my username and password was, I found it. Hey guys, Doubt anyone recognizes me.

Danny has really impressed me. I have been lurking on both here and the model discussion (which i am WAYYY too new to this to even attempt on posting in that thread, i would be like DURRRRP) I have learned a few things since last year, like convection, wind shear, dry air, and Danny did have some impressive burst of convection at times and i really didn't expect it to become a category 3 so soon, if at all. I do not want Danny to hurt anyone, but i am definitely waiting to see how well he turns out after passing through that band of wind shear coming up. I really don;t know enough yet to say whether or not I feel if it will survive or not, so I am basically just sitting back, relaxing, and tracking.

[Hammy]

And I would like to add kudos to the HWRF. It turned out right after all. Maybe a lucky fluke.

The HWRF has actually been doing a somewhat decent job for the most part since last year, I think the only storm (of the ones I followed for the model) that it really did bad with was Bertha, which it showed reaching low-end Cat 2. It performed well with Ana as well (I didn't check for Bill and Claudette due to their short lifespans).

As far as the CMC shear, it has a bad habit of overdoing it with the troughs (It's certainly gotten my hopes up on numerous occasions of getting cooler than normal temperatures during summer and fall only to not happen.)

[floridasun78]

nhc surprise to see cat 3 because was suppose go cat 2 few day ago not cat 3

[Steve]

Interesting trough depicted on the Canadian. The main thing to take from that is the strength of the bounce-back ridge you'd expect once that splits or lifts out.

[Hammy]

You can actually see the eyewall splitting from the ERC in IR imagery.