ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[WPBWeather]

First major hurricane in August since 2011 (Ironic considering several people here including myself were expecting to see little if anything in the MDR)

We promise not to mention it again

Seriously, you are one of the several best on here.

[CrazyC83]

First major hurricane in the MDR since 2010 I believe.

[HurricaneRyan]

YESSSSS Danny a major hurricane! :clap3:

[TheAustinMan]

First major hurricane in the MDR since 2010 I believe.

Where exactly is the MDR? I personally consider the Caribbean as part of the MDR, which would mean Sandy was the last major by that definition.

[wxman57]

Wind shear across Florida & the Bahamas (and Gulf) is forecast to be quite strong next week into the following weekend. Anything left of Danny after it passes the DR will be toast.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Wind shear across Florida & the Bahamas (and Gulf) is forecast to be quite strong next week into the following weekend. Anything left of Danny after it passes the DR will be toast.

This is the same GFS that flip flopped about once every 6 hours? I thought GFS and wind shear forecast are subject to change that far out?

[SunnyThoughts]

Awesome that we actually got a cat 3 out of such a small system. Now let the weakening begin so nobody has to deal with anything other than some rain and a few squalls hopefully.

[tolakram]

Wind shear forecast subject to change without notice.

But I think the general pattern is one that will create a lot of shear.

[RL3AO]

Wind shear across Florida & the Bahamas (and Gulf) is forecast to be quite strong next week into the following weekend. Anything left of Danny after it passes the DR will be toast.

[ img]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015082112/gfs_shear_watl_32.png[/img]

This is the same GFS that flip flopped about once every 6 hours? I thought GFS and wind shear forecast are subject to change that far out?

The synoptic (large) scale forecast did not flip flop every 6 hours. Don't confuse a global model struggling to handle a mesoscale (small) tropical cyclone, with it not being correct in forecasting wind shear in the 5 to 7 day period.

[Nimbus]

Someone needs to tell Danny that he is over optimistic, looks like an EWRC and he is going for a bigger eye!

[Hammy]

First major hurricane in the MDR since 2010 I believe.

Where exactly is the MDR? I personally consider the Caribbean as part of the MDR, which would mean Sandy was the last major by that definition.

The most common definition I've seen of it is between Africa and 60W and south of 20N.

[Weatherlover12]

Wind shear across Florida & the Bahamas (and Gulf) is forecast to be quite strong next week into the following weekend. Anything left of Danny after it passes the DR will be toast.

We'll see.. because my local weathermen is saying the Bahamas will be favorable for development. That far out is really hard to predict the shear across a area. We have to wait and see
WeatherLover12

[OuterBanker]

Congrats to Danny on making Cat 3. So many were ready to write his epitaph just two days ago.
There is no doubt he will meet his demise starting tomorrow, but today he reigns.
On top of that he has cleared the way for his siblings to follow. And apparently the models are starting to show that.
He had me fooled from the get go. I thought what became Danny was the weaker wave which would pave the way for the stronger wave behind it.
That didn’t happen.
No matter what happens in the future he has already defied the odds.
I’m starting to wonder what surprises the rest of the season holds.

[Weatherboy1]

I think the issue is whether Danny actually does hit Hispanola. If it does, yes, he's in big trouble. But with every model cycle, the projected path seems to shift a little more north. TVCN line now only kissing the northern coast of the island at the SFWMD website. Also, as some have noted, that shear forecast is pretty far out in the future. We will see!

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_04.gif

[Sanibel]

That shear map is also saying the Bahamas will be favorable for development.

[Weatherboy1]

That shear map is also saying the Bahamas will be favorable for development.

Yes, it appears so. Which means IF Danny survives his trip through the shear zone and the PR/DR gauntlet, he could get stronger again before potentially taking aim at FL or the FL straits/Cuba. What does appear clearer with each model cycle is that we don't have an obvious recurve scenario like we've had with so many other systems the last few years.

Just my opinion, listen to the experts, and all that!

[perk]

Wind shear across Florida & the Bahamas (and Gulf) is forecast to be quite strong next week into the following weekend. Anything left of Danny after it passes the DR will be toast.

[ img]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015082112/gfs_shear_watl_32.png[/img]

This is the same GFS that flip flopped about once every 6 hours? I thought GFS and wind shear forecast are subject to change that far out?

The synoptic (large) scale forecast did not flip flop every 6 hours. Don't confuse a global model struggling to handle a mesoscale (small) tropical cyclone, with it not being correct in forecasting wind shear in the 5 to 7 day period.

So are you saying that you trust a shear analysis over 7 and a half days out.

[beagleagle23]

Sorry if already mentioned, but any reason why the NHC is doing advisories every 6 hours instead of every 3 hours. Seems like in past years they've done it every 3 hours.

[MGC]

I would not trust wind shear forecast 5-6 days out. Not surprised at all to see Danny get to cat-3. Now lets watch Danny fall apart just as fast as it approaches the islands. Hope the latest GDFL run don't verify.....MGC

[MaineWeatherNut]

Sorry if already mentioned, but any reason why the NHC is doing advisories every 6 hours instead of every 3 hours. Seems like in past years they've done it every 3 hours.

It's every 6 hours while there are no watches and warnings, every 3 hours once watches and warnings are posted, then every hour during the hours leading up to land fall.