ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[drezee]

Glad recon decided to go to Danny first, might have caught his peak...

I suspect Danny peaked hours ago. CDO was colder and eye was warmer per IR.

[drezee]

BTW, unless Danny is tilted like the leaning tower of Pisa...Recon missed the eye on the last pass. The did not even get a clean wind shift...

[Hammy]

Rising pressure and still finding borderline winds should hopefully be enough to upgrade post-analysis if they don't do it operationally--if it's at this intensity now (probably 110 mph) it was certainly stronger earlier.

BTW, unless Danny is tilted like the leaning tower of Pisa...Recon missed the eye on the last pass. The did not even get a clean wind shift...

If it is tilted at all this might explain why strongest flight winds were north of the strongest surface winds.

[tatertawt24]

Shear is what causes the tilt, right?

[tropicwatch]

101 knt SMFR winds in the newest recon pass. Looks like it is a cat 3.

Where did you get that?

[gatorcane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/flash-vis-long.html

Looks like a little jog NW?

Yep looks like it to me. Let's see how much latitude Danny gains.

[galaxy401]

101 knt SMFR winds in the newest recon pass. Looks like it is a cat 3.

Where did you get that?

From the recon thread. Post #22 has 101 knots at one point unflagged.

[Hammy]

101 knt SMFR winds in the newest recon pass. Looks like it is a cat 3.

Where did you get that?

From the recon thread. Post #22 has 101 knots at one point unflagged.

I doubt they'll upgrade though especially since it's trending downward, probably 90kt operational peak.

[drezee]

Latest vortex estimates surface winds at

D. 104 kt

[galaxy401]

Where did you get that?

From the recon thread. Post #22 has 101 knots at one point unflagged.

I doubt they'll upgrade though especially since it's trending downward, probably 90kt operational peak.

With the new VDM data, I see no reason why not.

[drezee]

based on the letter of the law and past history, I would upgrade to 115mph and call it a day.

104kt SFMR
111 Flt level
965 pressure

Done

[abajan]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Probably my favorite color scheme for water vapor. Really shows how much of a fight Danny is going to have to put up. Menacing.

That link did not work.

Kinda similar to what happens if you try to directly visit the URLs of the satellite images and loops found on the this page.

[drezee]

This thing is impressive over 100mph winds at the surface in S eyewall that is open!

[CrazyC83]

based on the letter of the law and past history, I would upgrade to 115mph and call it a day.

104kt SFMR
111 Flt level
965 pressure

Done

Combined, that data provides good support for 105 kt.

[drezee]

If we don't get a special upgrade then expect the following:

We believe when recon passed through Danny around 17z, it was near peak intensity of 100kts. Since then, the eye has become obscured and convection warmed. Therefore, we are using a blend of the T5.0 and recon to set the intensity at 95kts.

In other words, you had a major but you missed it. see you during reanalysis time...enjoy

[SFLcane]

Bob Henson on WU...

The outlook for Danny: becoming more complex

Track models remain in fairly good agreement on a continued west-northwest track for Danny. The NHC forecast track (see Figure 3) now brings Danny to the vicinity of Puerto Rico by Tuesday and Hispanola by Wednesday. Assuming the west-northwest bearing remains solid, only a slight deviation could play a big role in Danny’s future, as interaction with the mountainous terrain of these islands could quickly disrupt weaken a storm as small as Danny. If the model trend further toward the north continues, Danny has a better chance of escaping landfall on the islands; in this case, its small size could actually result in less disruption from the islands than for a larger hurricane.

If Danny manages to track well north of Puerto Rico and Hispanola with its structure relatively intact, it could encounter a more favorable environment for some potential restrengthening in the 5-to-6-day window, as suggested by the 0600 and 1200 GMT run of the GFDL model.

[N2FSU]

Question: does anyone expect any significant changes to the models in track/intensity once this data is input? Or do you think they continue to show Danny's demise around P.R. or the Dominican with no threat to the U.S.?

[Hammy]

I don't think it's ever taken so long for 30 minutes to pass waiting to see if they upgrade or not here, but I doubt that they will, numerous times I've seen them not use the recon VDM peak either operationally or post-analysis if the system was weakening at the time, with the reasoning that winds weren't reaching the surface due to the weakening.

Edit: Of course they'd upgrade as I post this

[drezee]

BOOM!!! Nevermind!!!

000
WTNT64 KNHC 211747
TCUAT4

HURRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Danny
is now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.

No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving into
an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend is
expected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to the
forecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 48.6W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven/Roberts

[Hammy]

First major hurricane in August since 2011 (Ironic considering several people here including myself were expecting to see little if anything in the MDR)