ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[NCSTORMMAN]

Question - Higher it peaks, more likely it survives the shear ahead?

I second this! Is that a chance pro mets?

[tolakram]

16:15Z

[ozonepete]

Question - Higher it peaks, more likely it survives the shear ahead?

More likely, yes. Also important is the forward speed. The faster it moves the quicker it can punch through that band of shear and get back in favorable conditions.

[Alyono]

not 105 kts with SFMR values as low as they are

[Steve]

Im not going to lie, I am impressed with how well Danny is doing. Very impressive how its moved up in the world. Looks like a nice healthy storm, but for how long. This should peak soon, I would think.

I tend to agree as one can clearly see the southwesterly flow just ahead of the system. However, it's still going to rack up a good bit of ACE over the next few days regardless of it's potential demise and particularly if it ends up having been a major for a couple of periods. I know wxman had posted the potential for ACE to potentially be significantly lower than what some forecasters have called for. But a couple of H's and IH's can pile up some ACE points.

[tolakram]

16:15Z big picture

[tolakram]

000
URNT12 KWBC 211655
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042015
A. 21/16:20:00Z
B. 14 deg 08 min N
048 deg 19 min W
H. EXTRAP 965 mb
I. 6 C / 3690 m
J. 21 C / 3321 m
K. 2 C / NA
L. OPEN S
M. C12
N. 12345 / NA
O. 1 / 4 nm
P. NOAA3 WA04A DANNY OB 06
SLP EXTRAP FROM 12000 FT
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 111 KT 026 / 04 NM 16:20:40Z

[tatertawt24]

It looks like the eye just keeps getting smaller and smaller. Anyone know the diameter of it?

[WeatherGuesser]

Question - Higher it peaks, more likely it survives the shear ahead?

More likely, yes. Also important is the forward speed. The faster it moves the quicker it can punch through that band of shear and get back in favorable conditions.

NOT what I want to see. I want it to die well before it gets to any populated area so that there's nothing left but needed rain showers.

[BobHarlem]

000
URNT12 KWBC 211655
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042015
A. 21/16:20:00Z
B. 14 deg 08 min N
048 deg 19 min W
H. EXTRAP 965 mb
I. 6 C / 3690 m
J. 21 C / 3321 m
K. 2 C / NA
L. OPEN S
M. C12
N. 12345 / NA
O. 1 / 4 nm
P. NOAA3 WA04A DANNY OB 06
SLP EXTRAP FROM 12000 FT
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 111 KT 026 / 04 NM 16:20:40Z

Tropical Cyclone Special Update imminent?

[SunnyThoughts]

It looks like the eye just keeps getting smaller and smaller. Anyone know the diameter of it?

I believe earlier that wxman said he measured it at 6 mi across. Perhaps an erc beginning?

[ScottNAtlanta]

One thing about such a small storm is that the recon pattern is much smaller too. They should be back at the center here shortly

[HurriGuy]

It must be going through an eye wall replacement? Or the new convection just filled in the eye momentarily.

[Hammy]

000
URNT12 KWBC 211655
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042015
A. 21/16:20:00Z
B. 14 deg 08 min N
048 deg 19 min W
H. EXTRAP 965 mb
I. 6 C / 3690 m
J. 21 C / 3321 m
K. 2 C / NA
L. OPEN S
M. C12
N. 12345 / NA
O. 1 / 4 nm
P. NOAA3 WA04A DANNY OB 06
SLP EXTRAP FROM 12000 FT
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 111 KT 026 / 04 NM 16:20:40Z

Tropical Cyclone Special Update imminent?

Winds weren't enough quite yet due to missing the strongest winds (and being on the weaker side for that matter) so I assume they're at least waiting for another pass or two.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I dont think the eye can get much smaller. What is the smallest known eye in a hurricane?

[tolakram]

Live loop. Eye is closing up.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-50&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray

[tolakram]

Radar presentation degrading fast, pressure up since last fix, I bet Danny was a cat 3 a few hours ago.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[galaxy401]

101 knt SMFR winds in the newest recon pass. Looks like it is a cat 3.

[tatertawt24]

I dont think the eye can get much smaller. What is the smallest known eye in a hurricane?

Wilma's was two miles.

[Blown Away]

Glad recon decided to go to Danny first, might have caught his peak...