ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

There may be an ERC going on according to recon.

[ozonepete]

So pressure is lower and wind speeds are not as high as NHC has it?

So they probably over did wind speed which I actually thought was correct and under did MB?

A pressure drop like that means the storm's intensifying, IF it really did have a pressure in the mid 970s range earlier. And there's a lot more areas where winds could be higher. We have to wait.

[HurriGuy]

111 knots at flight level.

Good to know he made it to Cat 3.

[ScottNAtlanta]

They just posted a flight level wind of 123 mph

[NCSTORMMAN]

Okay thanks OzonePete I thought recon was almost done. Thanks for the information.

[NCSTORMMAN]

They just posted a flight level wind of 123 mph

Surface translation please?

[Hyperstorm]

Yep, category 3 now. Even if the pressure doesn't quite correspond to one on an average level, but this storm is so tiny that it's totally expected.

[SouthDadeFish]

It should be noted that the minimum in SLP occurred without a calm in the winds, so surface pressure could easily actually be around 960 mb.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Even with his small size, if Danny is as intense as recon is showing, would it be possible that Danny pull the anticyclone along with him and push the shear out of the way?

[HurriGuy]

Would NHC do any type of special advisory or something to justify Cat 3 status before the weakening begins?

[Hammy]

Would NHC do any type of special advisory or something to justify Cat 3 status before the weakening begins?

I would imagine at this point, even if they don't, it would go on the 18z position in post-analysis

[Hyperstorm]

Scott, in this case it's very unlikely. The hurricane is so small that any anticyclonic flow is too small to push the negative shear ahead of it. Hurricane Allen in 1980 WAS able to push the negative flow ahead of it due to its large size and huge anticyclone.

[SouthDadeFish]

The NHC might be waiting for better sampling of the northern eyewall. No point in issuing a special advisory now to find out stronger winds exist somewhere else. Also need a better center fix to get surface pressure.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Looks like a little jog NW?

[HurriGuy]

One last thing. I had at one point found where Danny's Dvorak numbers are, but now I am searching everywhere. Can anyone put a link?

[CrazyC83]

Based on the data and the pressure data compared to the really small size, I would go with 105 kt (pressure 964mb) for the intensity.

[windnrain]

From NWS New Orleans on upgrading it to cat 3:

NWSNewOrleans ‏@NWSNewOrleans 10s11 seconds ago
@realitybias @Dave_Nussbaum @Josh_Eachus if they have the data they could do a Tropical Cyclone Update.

[deltadog03]

Im not going to lie, I am impressed with how well Danny is doing. Very impressive how its moved up in the world. Looks like a nice healthy storm, but for how long. This should peak soon, I would think.

[windnrain]

Question - Higher it peaks, more likely it survives the shear ahead?

[ozonepete]

Based on the data and the pressure data compared to the really small size, I would go with 105 kt (pressure 964mb) for the intensity.

I want to see the rest of the data, but that seems really reasonable right now.