ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

latest VIS floater. Very impressive!

[JPmia]

This has to be our first major hurricane of the season. I've been following these suckers for years and this is what they look like!

[Hyperstorm]

According to the plan of the day for the NOAA Aircraft it looks like they were going to be there on 21/1300z, which would have been 9:00 am ET. Does anyone know if they've already departed and are on the way?

[perk]

very impressive hurricane, seems to have grown is size some overnight too - it's been years since we have had one like this deep in the MDR.

to other comments - we have a long way to go with intensity forecasts that is for sure.

It has grown some in size.

[Ntxw]

He looks amazing this morning, definitely my favorite visually of the past several years. It's nice to see a well organized storm (even if small) vs those large slop mess we've been getting. Hopefully he weakens before the islands and brings much needed rain to them.

Kudos to the NHC for being consistent from the start, we're mere mortals


----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 AUG 2015 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 13:53:21 N Lon : 47:51:01 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 990.7mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 5.0 5.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 9 km

Center Temp : -20.5C Cloud Region Temp : -58.8C



Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[ouragans]

Waouw that's surprising, Danny is getting stronger and stronger since this morning. Looks like intensity is much higher than what NHC was predicting today. Sat presentation is pretty impressive given my untrained eyes. Islanders in the EC let's continue to monitor closely the situation.

By the way ouragans, what do you think about Danny?

Well, just ahead of Danny lies a big area of SAL. If ever it survives, right after come a wall of windshear. My bet: TD or a weak TS crossing the islands.

Talking of the track, if it's a weak system, it should take a West. Everything will depend on where Danny is downgraded.

Do you imagine my first idea was an open wave?

[MGC]

Only a cat-1? Doubt it...looks to be much stronger to me. Hope Danny starts falling apart soon and only brings rain and a little wind to the islands.......MGC

[tolakram]

NOAA43 is on the way according to the NASA tracker



source: http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/#view=map&mapid=hybrid&zoom=4&lat=8.4836&lng=-36.6743&callsign=NOAA43

No regular recon info is available at the moment.

[fd122]

However small it is that is one better looking storms I've seen in the past few years. Hoping it will be weak TS or TD by the time it approaches us.

[NDG]

[wxman57]

According to the plan of the day for the NOAA Aircraft it looks like they were going to be there on 21/1300z, which would have been 9:00 am ET. Does anyone know if they've already departed and are on the way?

Word is that a NOAA P-3 is scheduled to depart at 9am CDT. The plane is doing a pre-storm ocean survey and at the end of the mission they plan to do a single figure-4 pattern through Danny. I'd look for some data by 21Z or so.

[tropicwatch]

[tatertawt24]

Ha, can anyone guess what storm that particular sat image reminds me a lot of?

[galaxy401]

According to the plan of the day for the NOAA Aircraft it looks like they were going to be there on 21/1300z, which would have been 9:00 am ET. Does anyone know if they've already departed and are on the way?

Word is that a NOAA P-3 is scheduled to depart at 9am CDT. The plane is doing a pre-storm ocean survey and at the end of the mission they plan to do a single figure-4 pattern through Danny. I'd look for some data by 21Z or so.

Cool but I'm worried the storm will be weaker by that time.

[Bocadude85]

They went with 90kts.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2015

...DANNY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 48.2W
ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

[tolakram]

14:15Z

[TheStormExpert]

Track trends a little north.

[tolakram]

From the discussion:

It is notable that experimental multispectral METEOSAT imagery suggests
that low-level moisture has wrapped around the cyclone and pushed
the drier air farther away. This could be helping both the
intensification and the increase in outer banding.

[ConvergenceZone]

Per that intensity map, I'm surprised they still think this will be a tropical storm by next Wednesday Morning. Personally I don't think there will be much left of it, based upon the up and coming environment.

[SFLcane]

Thinking Danny may find a more favorable environment nearing the Bahamas especially if stays over water as models keep trending. GFDL showing just that this morning but we shall see. I expect more northward shifts to nhc track.