ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

#1001 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:08 am

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-50&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

#1002 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:08 am

Speaking of recon all are eagered to know how much meat Danny has including them.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 17m17 minutes ago
Can't wait to see what recon will find later today with tiny #Danny -- rarely get a plane into a system like this!

Gustywind · #1003 Postby **Gustywind** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:10 am

Cycloneye, could you post the best track please?

Gustywind · #1004 Postby **Gustywind** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:11 am

Given my untrained Danny is maybe bursting more and more and expanding convection seems to pop nicely in its southern part.

#1005 Postby **Fego** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:12 am

Wuup
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
21/1145 UTC 13.8N 47.8W T5.0/5.0 DANNY -- Atlantic

Gustywind · #1006 Postby **Gustywind** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:12 am

Again increasing numbers for Hurricane Danny...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
21/1145 UTC 13.8N 47.8W T5.0/5.0 DANNY
21/0545 UTC 13.5N 46.9W T4.5/4.5 DANNY
20/2345 UTC 13.2N 46.0W T4.5/4.5 DANNY
20/1745 UTC 12.7N 45.3W T4.0/4.0 DANNY
20/1145 UTC 12.4N 44.2W T3.0/3.0 DANNY
20/0545 UTC 12.0N 43.1W T2.5/3.0 DANNY
19/2345 UTC 11.9N 42.3W T3.0/3.0 DANNY
19/1745 UTC 11.6N 41.4W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/1145 UTC 11.0N 40.6W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/0545 UTC 11.3N 39.2W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
18/2345 UTC 11.0N 38.3W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
18/1745 UTC 11.1N 37.0W T2.0/2.0 04L
18/1145 UTC 10.2N 35.9W T2.0/2.0 96L
18/0545 UTC 9.5N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 96L
18/0000 UTC 9.3N 33.2W T1.0/1.0 96L

#1007 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:22 am

Go Danny go.

11:15Z

source: ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/goeseast/overview2/vis/

#1008 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:26 am

Larger view. The Islands are where the clouds are on the left side of this picture. Danny seems to be pushing the dust out of the way.

#1009 Postby **northjaxpro** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:26 am

WOW!! Danny may be tiny, but it is the best looking intense tropical cyclone we have had in the Atlantic basin in quite some time. Beautiful storm!!

#1010 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:29 am

Dvorak estimates up to T 5.0 as of 12Z. That is approximately 90 knots.

Gustywind · #1011 Postby **Gustywind** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:31 am

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: WOW!! Danny may be tiny, but it is the best looking intense tropical cyclone we have had in the Atlantic basin in quite some time. Beautiful storm!!

Northjaxpro given the latest Dvorak numbers, do you tkink that Danny could be a cat 2 cane right now?

#1012 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:32 am

Looking really good this morning, with improved banding:

The eye is so small microwave imagery is having a really hard time accurately depicting it.

TheStormExpert · #1013 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:35 am

Exactly how long from now until the wall of shear takes it down?

#1014 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:39 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Exactly how long from now until the wall of shear takes it down?

97,203 seconds from this post.

All joking aside, SHIPS shows the shear starting to increase around 06Z tomorrow, so overnight tonight into tomorrow morning.

#1015 Postby **northjaxpro** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:40 am

Gustywind wrote:
northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: WOW!! Danny may be tiny, but it is the best looking intense tropical cyclone we have had in the Atlantic basin in quite some time. Beautiful storm!!

Northjaxpro given the latest Dvorak numbers, do you tkink that Danny could be a cat 2 cane right now?

I have thought Danny to be Cat 2 since I went to bed last night. Read my previous posts for the last couple of pages.

#1016 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:40 am

NDG wrote:I really doubt that Danny is only at 85 mph winds, it's eyewall only looks like is like 20-30 miles in diameter, incredible!

I am measuring it's eye at 6nm in diameter. Radius of max winds is only 12-15nm. Probably over 100 kts, maybe 110 kts now.

#1017 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:42 am

wxman57 wrote:
NDG wrote:I really doubt that Danny is only at 85 mph winds, it's eyewall only looks like is like 20-30 miles in diameter, incredible!

I am measuring it's eye at 6nm in diameter. Radius of max winds is only 12-15nm. Probably over 100 kts, maybe 110 kts now.

Agreed on all accounts. I'm very glad NOAA is flying out there today.

#1018 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:43 am

spiral wrote:cranking hard looks like there mesovortices now in the eyewall.

What satellite imagery are you using to see this?

#1019 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:44 am

Only 85kts??

AL, 04, 2015082112, , BEST, 0, 138N, 478W, 85, 980, HU

Frank2 · #1020 Postby **Frank2** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:45 am

It shows how intensity forecasting has a long way to go, because the Cat 2 scenario was dropped yesterday, but it certainly looks that way now and perhaps a bit higher...

Frank

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

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