WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN41 PHFO 210556
TCSNP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0600 UTC FRI AUG 21 2015

A. Tropical depression Three-C.

B. 21/0530Z.

C. 11.9°N.

D. 150.9°W.

E. Goes-15.

F. T2.5/2.5/d0.5/24 hrs.

G. Vis/ir/eir.

H. Remarks: Shear pattern with center < than 45 nm from EIR bd dg yields a data t of 2.5. MET and PT are 2.0. Final T based on data t.

I. Addl positions none.

$$

Ryshko.

[Yellow Evan]

SAB center fix way far off from the CPHC's and honestly I might agree with it:

21/0530 UTC 12.8N 148.5W T1.5/2.0 03C -- Central Pacific

[Alyono]

cphc going 12N, 150.7W

SHIPS and LGE no longer forecast a hurricane. They seem off as all dynamical models show intensification during the trough interaction.

I agree this wont do much for about 48 hours. Not sure why CPHC went quick intensification in the short term. The real intensification occurs once this interacts with the trough

[Kingarabian]

Satcon is at 40kts from 2 hours ago.

[Yellow Evan]

cphc going 12N, 150.7W

SHIPS and LGE no longer forecast a hurricane. They seem off as all dynamical models show intensification during the trough interaction.

I agree this wont do much for about 48 hours. Not sure why CPHC went quick intensification in the short term. The real intensification occurs once this interacts with the trough

SHIPS shows shear induced by the GFS due to the CPHC track being different from the GFS output. We saw this with Ana last year.

[Alyono]

cphc going 12N, 150.7W

SHIPS and LGE no longer forecast a hurricane. They seem off as all dynamical models show intensification during the trough interaction.

I agree this wont do much for about 48 hours. Not sure why CPHC went quick intensification in the short term. The real intensification occurs once this interacts with the trough

SHIPS shows shear induced by the GFS due to the CPHC track being different from the GFS output. We saw this with Ana last year.

Not surprised. Also, SHIPS cannot handle trough interaction intensification, which this clearly is

[Yellow Evan]

JTWC in agreement with SAB over the center:

TPPZ01 PGTW 210607

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03C (SE OF HAWAII)

B. 21/0530Z

C. 12.61N

D. 148.48W

E. FIVE/GOES15

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
21/0011Z 12.02N 149.17W MMHS


CHAPPOTIN

[Kingarabian]

Probably why the CPHC went with that fix.

[Yellow Evan]

IMO hard to tell based on that image.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1100 PM HST THU AUG 20 2015

FINAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED THAT THE WELL-DEFINED
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
CONTINUED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD...REMOVED FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION BY ABOUT 150 MILES. THIS FEATURE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN INFRARED IMAGERY. WHILE IT IS CERTAINLY
PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS IS THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
/LLCC/...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FOLLOW THE ASSUMPTION MADE IN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THAT A DIFFERENT LLCC EXISTS...OR WILL SOON
DEVELOP...CLOSER TO THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING
GENERALLY WESTWARD. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE CYCLONE IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH ARE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE ANALYZED POSITION OF THE LLCC...RANGE FROM
1.0/25 KT TO 2.5/35 KT. WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION
NOTED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS A SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN 300/13 KT. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POSITION OF
THE LLCC...THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS AS PRESENTED
PREVIOUSLY. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THREE-C MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
STEERED BY WESTWARD-BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE
UPDATED FORECAST TRACK THROUGH DAY 3 IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS...AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR A NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON DAYS 4
AND 5...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A DECREASE IN FORWARD
MOTION...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE MAIN DYNAMICAL
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS TURN...WITH THE
HWRF ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE ECMWF ONCE
AGAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. THE LONGER IT TAKES FOR THIS BREAK TO
DEVELOP...THE FARTHER WEST THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE BEFORE
TURNING...AND THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CONTAIN A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST POSITIONS ON DAY 4
AND 5 LIE CLOSE TO THE HWRF GUIDANCE...AND A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...DUE TO A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE LATEST ECMWF
GUIDANCE...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TVCN CONSENSUS.

THREE-C IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATER...ABOVE 29C IN THE LATEST
ANALYSIS...AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ANALYSIS FROM RAMMB-CIRA
INDICATES INCREASING VALUES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. EASTERLY SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 KT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...BUT
IT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN
REMAIN RATHER WEAK THROUGH DAY 3. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT THE
DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN...BUT LATEST DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.
WHILE THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS...
THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN SLOWED...AND REPRESENTS A BLEND
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE ASSETS ARE IN THE
PROCESS OF DEPLOYING TO HAWAII AND A WC-130J IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE AN
INITIAL PASS THROUGH THREE-C FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE
VALUABLE DATA TO HELP BETTER DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE WIND FIELD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 12.3N 151.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 13.0N 153.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 13.9N 156.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 15.0N 159.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 16.0N 161.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 18.0N 163.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 19.5N 162.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 21.0N 161.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[Kingarabian]

06z slower but the same as 00z GFS.

[talkon]

03C KILO 150821 1200 12.5N 151.0W CPAC 35 1004

[Yellow Evan]

Interesting center fix

A. Tropical depression Three-C.

B. 21/1130Z.

C. 12.2°N.

D. 151.2°W.

E. Goes-15.

F. T3.0/3.0/d1.0/24 hrs.

G. Ir/eir.

H. Remarks: Shear pattern with center < than 45 nm from EIR bd dg yields a data t of 3.0. MET is 3.0. PT is 3.5. Final T based on data t.

I. Addl positions none.

$$

Ryshko.

[Alyono]

03C KILO 150821 1200 12.5N 151.0W CPAC 35 1004

They are UPGRADING this?

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA21 PHFO 211434
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM KILO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 151.7W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 151.7W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 151.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.5N 154.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.2N 157.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 10SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.2N 160.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 10SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.3N 162.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.4N 162.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 20.0N 162.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 21.5N 161.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 151.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[CrazyC83]

T3.0 on a shear pattern I guess?

[Yellow Evan]

T3.0 on a shear pattern I guess?

Yea. This is where the CPHC's lack of Dvorak experience shows.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 AM HST FRI AUG 21 2015

AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE
HAS BEEN EXPANDING SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHILE TRACKING
STEADILY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
/LLCC/ IS ESTIMATED TO BE ON SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THIS DEEP
CONVECTION...WITH BI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY HELPING TO HIGHLIGHT LOW CLOUD
MOTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH APPEARS TO BE A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THIS
POSITION ESTIMATE CORRELATES WELL WITH SHEAR EVALUATIONS FROM
UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATE EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 15 TO 20 KT. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
1.0/25 KT TO 3.0/45 KT...AND WITH THE LLCC ESTIMATED TO BE
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE SYSTEM IS BEING
UPGRADED TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM WITH THIS ADVISORY...AND
HAS BEEN NAMED KILO.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 295/14 KT...WITH
THE STORM BEING DRIVEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ON THIS GENERAL TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...
WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THEREAFTER. AFTER
THIS TIME...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES INTO THIS WEAKNESS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS TURN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WITH THE HWRF REMAINING ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS ON THE WEST SIDE...DUE
TO THE ECMWF...WHICH REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE
UPDATED TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE LEFT...IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF A WELL CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH DAY 3...AND
LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE HWRF...GFS AND GFDL ON DAYS 4 AND 5.

KILO IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATER...ABOVE 29C IN THE LATEST
ANALYSIS...AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ANALYSIS FROM RAMMB-CIRA
INDICATES INCREASING VALUES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. EASTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER TODAY...AND THEN REMAIN RATHER
WEAK THROUGH DAY 3. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT THE STORM WILL
STRENGTHEN...AND THE LATEST DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS AGREE.
WHILE THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS...
THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN SLOWED...AND REPRESENTS A BLEND
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE U.S. 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON /WRS/ WILL BEGIN
FLIGHTS INTO KILO THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AT 12
HOURLY INTERVALS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...PROVIDING CRITICAL INSIGHT
INTO KILO/S STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY. WITH THE G-IV AIRCRAFT TASKED
IN THE ATLANTIC...THE 53RD WRS IS ALSO SCHEDULED TO DO A SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON SATURDAY MORNING IN ORDER TO SAMPLE THE
STRENGTH OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KILO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 12.7N 151.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 13.5N 154.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 14.2N 157.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.2N 160.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 16.3N 162.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 18.4N 162.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 20.0N 162.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 21.5N 161.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[Alyono]

a 3.0 on this?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks

[CrazyC83]

I would go with a T2.0 at most personally.