ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Danny has overachieved and if shows that even with Strong El Nino you can have things like this.If a plane would be now I wonder if it have found stronger winds than 70kts.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I would like his opinion as well on that.

[Hurricaneman]

watch the research missions find a cat 2 or 3 hurricane

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[northjaxpro]

I think Danny is at least at 85 kts currently based on satellite prrsentation.

[Steve]

I am by no means a met, but Danny looks really good tonight. in fact better than he has since it was classified, I think it has to be more than a minimal Cat 1 based only by appearance.

Agreed. Not sure if it is the final peak, but danny is rolling for the time being and should easily be at it's strongest yet if not ever based on what happens next 36 hours. But yeah. You are right. Also notice the eye is pretty far south in the convective mass.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

looks like the eye is in the middle to me but I could be wrong

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Yeah. As the loop updated, that's what happened. Initially it took a jog to the west as the eye (haven't said that in a while) peaked out but it ended up being more or less center there for a while.

[bahamaswx]

I think Danny is at least at 85 kts currently based on satellite prrsentation.

Agreed.

[tropicwatch]

Very healthy looking system.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Is there a delay with the run of the GFS don't see anything in the models forum, Caneman posted it had started but nothing since.

[Siker]

Is there a delay with the run of the GFS don't see anything in the models forum, Caneman posted it had started but nothing since.

No issues with it, people will tend to post fewer images from a model if there is nothing interesting to see (in this case, the GFS's likely poor handling of the system's intensity).

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks Siker

[1900hurricane]

Not sure this has been mentioned yet or not, but even with the correct center fix, ADT is struggling mightily with Danny.

[Steve]

Run it in rbtop as the blackish hue circles the center sort of with that almost annular look even though you know it's nowhere near that level of a system. Might be the peak before dmin.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Sorta has that category 2 look, no?

[Hammy]

watch the research missions find a cat 2 or 3 hurricane

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I think that happened with Bertha in 1996 interestingly enough, the satellite estimates were off due to the size (though not this small) and it got bumped from 90 to 115 mph once the plane arrived. Wouldn't surprise me at all at this point (I just hope it doesn't weaken prior to the plane getting there so we can get a full estimate at it's peak)

[ozonepete]

Not sure this has been mentioned yet or not, but even with the correct center fix, ADT is struggling mightily with Danny.

Yep buddy. We had a discussion earlier this afternoon and that's exactly what I said. So let's watch it closely and we all can probably learn something about Dvorak and especially CIMSS ADT. I am a big, big fan of CIMSS so I would love to figure out why they are busting on this. My first guess of course is the size is throwing them off.

[ozonepete]

Wow, this is looking very impressive. The overall symmetry, pinhole eye, banding features and even the outflow are all organizing at the same time.

Care to share an intensity estimate?

Sure. 85 knots right now, conservatively.

[Evil Jeremy]

Hot towers firing all around the system, especially in the SW quad.

This is as much a Cat 1 as I am a billionaire.

[SouthDadeFish]

I would say 85-90 knots is a good guess at the moment. Really wish we had recon right now. Convection continues to deepen.

[tropicwatch]

Wow, intensifying further. Going from red to pink.

[ozonepete]

Hot towers firing all around the system, especially in the SW quad.

This is as much a Cat 1 as I am a billionaire.

Hahahaha. We can always count on you to nail it with a great quote.

[Siker]

Wow, this is looking very impressive. The overall symmetry, pinhole eye, banding features and even the outflow are all organizing at the same time.

Care to share an intensity estimate?

Sure. 85 knots right now, conservatively.

Thanks a ton, great to have active pro-mets like you!