Interesting comparison of comments about Danny and Andrew 19

[Tommedic]

The below was copied from archives of Andrew:

Between the 17th and 20th of August, the tropical storm passed south of the center of the high pressure area over the eastern Atlantic. Steering currents carried Andrew closer to a strong upper-level low pressure system centered about 500 n mi to the east-southeast of Bermuda and to a trough that extended southward from the low for a few hundred miles. These currents gradually changed and Andrew decelerated on a course which became northwesterly. This change in heading spared the Lesser Antilles from an encounter with Andrew. The change in track also brought the tropical storm into an environment of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and quite high surface pressures to its north. Although the estimated maximum wind speed of Andrew varied little then, a rather remarkable evolution occurred.

Satellite images suggest that Andrew produced deep convection only sporadically for several days, mainly in several bursts of about 12 hours duration. Also, the deep convection did not persist. Instead, it was stripped away from the low-level circulation by the strong southwesterly flow at upper levels. Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft investigated Andrew and, on the 20th, found that the cyclone had degenerated to the extent that only a diffuse low-level circulation center remained. Andrew's central pressure rose considerably (Fig. 2 [87K GIF]). Nevertheless, the flight-level data indicated that Andrew retained a vigorous circulation aloft. Wind speeds near 70 kt were measured at an altitude of 1500 ft near a convective band lying to the northeast of the low-level center. Hence, Andrew is estimated on 20 August to have been a tropical storm with 40 kt surface winds and an astonishingly high central pressure of 1015 mb (Figs. 2 and 3 [87K GIF]).

Significant changes in the large-scale environment near and downstream from Andrew began by 21 August. Satellite imagery in the water vapor channel indicated that the low aloft to the east-southeast of Bermuda weakened and split. The bulk of the low opened into a trough which retreated northward. That evolution decreased the vertical wind shear over Andrew. The remainder of the low dropped southward to a position just southwest of Andrew where its circulation enhanced the upper-level outflow over the tropical storm. At the same time, a strong and deep high pressure cell formed near the U.S. southeast coast. A ridge built eastward from the high into the southwestern Atlantic with its axis lying just north of Andrew. The associated steering flow over the tropical storm became easterly. Andrew turned toward the west, accelerated to near 16 kt, and quickly intensified.

Not saying Danny will be an Andrew, but we need to remember that smaller systems can sometimes slide in and out between negative environments. I think we need to try to observe and use this as a time to prep if we are in an area that could be effected at any time by a storm. To the professionals, thanks for all the knowledge that you impart to all of us amateurs.

[CaneCurious]

That is a pretty spot on comparison.

[SouthFLTropics]

I didn't want to bring it up but I was thinking almost the same thing. By August 20th Andrew was all but written off in most peoples minds. Little did we know we were watching an anomaly and history was in the making.

SFT

[Yellow Evan]

Honestly I think most people are aware of this. However, since most models tear Danny apart, I'd say that is far more likely at this time.

[SouthFLTropics]

Honestly I think most people are aware of this. However, since most models tear Danny apart, I'd say that is far more likely at this time.

You are most likely correct...And obviously we have much better modeling and science than we did 23 years ago.

SFT

[vbhoutex]

Interesting that you bring this up. I too have been wondering if we might see an Andrew type scenario. Although the modeling now is much better and appears to be, at a minimum, keeping Danny weaker and more southerly, I think it is very prudent to introduce this to our though processes as we track and predict Danny. Not about to say that this will or could happen, but there are some "similarities" that would make most weather geeks think about it. And yes I do know the models are now starting to split into two camps.