ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

wow was their prediction off. They weren't predicting this to be a hurricane until tomorrow........I guess that's what makes the tropics exciting.

[SouthFLTropics]

First hurricane!

Kinda funny how it stayed at 50 mph for over 24 hours then suddenly it jumps to hurricane strength where the last advisory forecaste it to peak at.

I think it was evident by how that eye cleared out that it underwent RI over the last 12 hours. Now to see if it continues or is able to maintain it and possibly grow in size. If it maintains that tight inner core I think Danny will keep throwing some curveballs into the forecast.

SFT

[Steve H.]

I have a feeling he will stay just to the north of the islands at this point. Things do change though. A small hurricane can be rather fragile though. He could get decapitated quickly if he enters a hostile environment (remember Danielle many years back). But if he stays just to the north of the islands he may stay in survival mode.

[AJC3]

wow was their prediction off. They weren't predicting this to be a hurricane until tomorrow........I guess that's what makes the tropics exciting.

Ironically, There were two earlier forecasts which had Danny at a 70kt (ADV #3) and 65kt (ADV #4) hurricane by 8AM this morning.

[Gustywind]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 191426
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 19 AUGUST 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-085

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK:
A. FIX TROPICAL STORM DANNY NEAR 14.8N 53.0W AT 22/2000Z.
B. P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO DANNY EVERY
12 HOURS BEGINNING AT 22/1800Z.
4. REMARKS: NOAA'S P-3 AND G-IV WILL DO RESEARCH MISSIONS
AROUND DANNY AT 21/1300Z AND 21/1730Z RESPECTIVELY

[NCSTORMMAN]

Danny is about to grow in size. The last frame clouds are firing up all around him. This could be him breaking away from monsoonal moisture envelope and becoming his own self sustaining storm. I think he will grow in size and I think he misses the islands to the north. I think he also threatens the US in a week or so.

[Alyono]

Danny is about to grow in size. The last frame clouds are firing up all around him. This could be him breaking away from monsoonal moisture envelope and becoming his own self sustaining storm. I think he will grow in size and I think he misses the islands to the north. I think he also threatens the US in a week or so.

very little chance this misses the Caribbean

[NCSTORMMAN]

Danny is about to grow in size. The last frame clouds are firing up all around him. This could be him breaking away from monsoonal moisture envelope and becoming his own self sustaining storm. I think he will grow in size and I think he misses the islands to the north. I think he also threatens the US in a week or so.

very little chance this misses the Caribbean

I could be wrong but I am sticking with it passing just north of Caribbean islands. Even the NHC keeps adjusting its track north.

[WPBWeather]

Danny is about to grow in size. The last frame clouds are firing up all around him. This could be him breaking away from monsoonal moisture envelope and becoming his own self sustaining storm. I think he will grow in size and I think he misses the islands to the north. I think he also threatens the US in a week or so.

very little chance this misses the Caribbean

I could be wrong but I am sticking with it passing just north of Caribbean islands. Even the NHC keeps adjusting its track north.

I hope Alyono IS correct. But the past models runs seem to continue to bump north, so???

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting, didn't know the Deep Tropics still had it in it to produce hurricanes.

@hurrtrackerapp: #Danny is the farthest south that a #hurricane has formed in the Atlantic basin since Fred in 2009.

[SouthFLTropics]

My personal opinion is that Danny will clip the Lesser Antilles but will slide north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

SFT

[bahamaswx]

Starting to look kinda ragged on the last couple of frames.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Starting to look kinda ragged on the last couple of frames.

It is just convection firing on top of the eye. It is no doubt still strengthening in my opinion. Matter of fact the last frame of visible shows clouds increasing around it. I think it is growing in size currently and will do so all day long.

[TheStormExpert]

Starting to look kinda ragged on the last couple of frames.

It is just convection firing on top of the eye. It is no doubt still strengthening in my opinion. Matter of fact the last frame of visible shows clouds increasing around it. I think it is growing in size currently and will do so all day long.

It is after all a bare minimal hurricane and minimal Cat.1's usually don't have visible eyes.

[CronkPSU]

Was in Puerto Rico this summer and they are having a heckuva drought, would be great if they caught just the edge of it for some much needed rain

[cycloneye]

Interesting data.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 26m26 minutes ago
#Danny is the farthest south than a #hurricane has formed in the Atlantic basin since Fred 2009 - impressive!

[Gustywind]

Interesting data.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 26m26 minutes ago
#Danny is the farthest south than a #hurricane has formed in the Atlantic basin since Fred 2009 - impressive!

Yeah in terms of stats for sure. But do you think that this could have a particular meaning in what we're are seeing right now?

[Bocadude85]

This loop really shows just how small Danny is.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

[Yellow Evan]

One question.

The
initial intensity of 65 kt is based on NHC objective Dvorak
classifications of T4.1-T4.2 using an eye feature.

What does this mean? Modified ADT?

[Dean4Storms]

Kudo's to the HWRF that back on Mon/Tues had this a Hurricane by early Thursday!

As a Deeper storm that the ECM is having a hard time realizing I don't know that I would totally buy its solution. A hurricane even this small is going to feel any weaknesses in a ridge and try to go poleward.