ATL: DANNY - Models

[TheStormExpert]

18Z GFS going now with the Euro is far as the 500MB pattern in the long-range. No longer does it show the big trough along the Eastern seaboard of the U.S. Look how different it is from the 12Z run. Also, not sure anybody in South Florida wants to see a system in the SE Bahamas with this type of pattern this time of year.

Thankfully it hugs the north coasts of Hispaniola, and Cuba and stats relatively weak compared to what it could be if it was a little further away from the coast. Still gotta keep watch!

[Hammy]

Interesting thing with the Euro, is I think this is the first run that has closed isobars (closed low) at the end of the run

[TheStormExpert]

Gfs is really struggling, just flopping and thrashing around like a fish out of water right now. Troughs, dry air, shear, high pressure really putting it to the test, doesn't know how to resolve things. Not even sure if can be trusted 5 days out right now.

This is the Windshield Wiping effect that we all love(sarcasm).

[northjaxpro]

Euro and GFS basically show the same pattern and have Danny or whatever is left of it at the same area in 8-10 days. Pretty darn good agreement!

For the time being gatorcane. Just know , which I know you and everyone does, that more changes will come.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Euro and GFS basically show the same pattern and have Danny or whatever is left of it at the same area in 8-10 days. Pretty darn good agreement!

For the moment or at least til tonights runs come out. Euro has been the one that has been fairly consistent so far.

[AJC3]

It would definitely be more useful to look at the GEFS and ECM ensembles/means at this point (7-10 days out) rather than to focus too much on their respective op-runs. This is especially true when model consensus and continuity are lacking, which is often the case that far out.

[Blown Away]

The EURO & GFS are trending a fizzled out shallow system to the west... That's what I see...

[SFLcane]

The EURO & GFS are trending a fizzled out shallow system to the west... That's what I see...

+1

[Siker]

The EURO & GFS are trending a fizzled out shallow system to the west... That's what I see...

Explain? The GFS did trend weaker in the short term, but did not fizzle it at all. Are you assuming this is the beginning of the GFS caving to an opened up system?

[Blown Away]

The EURO & GFS are trending a fizzled out shallow system to the west... That's what I see...

Explain? The GFS did trend weaker in the short term, but did not fizzle it at all. Are you assuming this is the beginning of the GFS caving to an opened up system?

The model runs showing a very weak system as it moves west of the Caribbean.

[blp]

The EURO & GFS are trending a fizzled out shallow system to the west... That's what I see...

Explain? The GFS did trend weaker in the short term, but did not fizzle it at all. Are you assuming this is the beginning of the GFS caving to an opened up system?

The model runs showing a very weak system as it moves west of the Caribbean.

At least we got something to track. If it was not for the CCK wave we would still be hibernating.

[tailgater]

It would definitely be more useful to look at the GEFS and ECM ensembles/means at this point (7-10 days out) rather than to focus too much on their respective op-runs. This is especially true when model consensus and continuity are lacking, which is often the case that far out.

Very wise words, from one of our promets. Thanks for your input.
Still tons of dust to deal with but it may have seen the worst.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE5.html

[Hammy]

It would definitely be more useful to look at the GEFS and ECM ensembles/means at this point (7-10 days out) rather than to focus too much on their respective op-runs. This is especially true when model consensus and continuity are lacking, which is often the case that far out.

Very wise words, from one of our promets. Thanks for your input.
Still tons of dust to deal with but it may have seen the worst.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE5.html

Interesting thing here is I think you can see the dry air that was ingested, a narrow east-west line that was pushed southwest by the high pressure between 0z and 12z, and the convection collapsed shortly afterwards.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS going now with the Euro is far as the 500MB pattern in the long-range. No longer does it show the big trough along the Eastern seaboard of the U.S. Look how different it is from the 12Z run. Also, not sure anybody in South Florida wants to see a system in the SE Bahamas with this type of pattern this time of year.

http://i.imgur.com/RiWnGbE.png

Thankfully it hugs the north coasts of Hispaniola, and Cuba and stats relatively weak compared to what it could be if it was a little further away from the coast. Still gotta keep watch!

Yes agreed, that GFS run has it passing over a lot of the big islands of the Greater Antilles which obviously would cause weakening. If you compare to the 12Z GFS, nothing else looks different in terms of dry air or upper-level winds, yet the 12Z GFS blows it up on that more northern route over open water. Wouldn't surprise me if a future run of the GFS blows it up again, if it shows it not getting impacted by land as much.

[TheStormExpert]

00z Track Guidance



00z Intensity Guidance

[Steve]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_04.gif

Oh those sneaky Clipper and Xtrapolation models.

[Dean4Storms]

I think the GFS is going back and forth with a deeper Cyclone run to a more shallow Cyclone run thus missing the break in the ridge on the more shallow runs taking whatever is left of Danny through the Straits.

It would make sense that a deeper Storm missing well north of the Islands would turn whereas a weaker Storm passing over the Islands might be steered by the lower level flow.

[AJC3]

It would definitely be more useful to look at the GEFS and ECM ensembles/means at this point (7-10 days out) rather than to focus too much on their respective op-runs. This is especially true when model consensus and continuity are lacking, which is often the case that far out.

Very wise words, from one of our promets. Thanks for your input.
Still tons of dust to deal with but it may have seen the worst.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE5.html

Interesting thing here is I think you can see the dry air that was ingested, a narrow east-west line that was pushed southwest by the high pressure between 0z and 12z, and the convection collapsed shortly afterwards.

Dr. Ryan Maue had a great tweet on this earlier today...

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/634105591678566400

[stormlover2013]

I just think gfs is stronger with ridge like euro, no matter if it's a big storm or small storm ridge looks strong so won't feel weakness

[Stormcenter]

I hate to bring this up considering the 10th anniversary is coming up but Katrina was nothing when it got to the area around Bahamas so I wouldn't
put much emphasis on what condition/strength Danny is in if and when it gets there. I'm NOT implying this will end up anything like Katrina just noting how quickly
these things can wind up in the right conditions. IMO

The EURO & GFS are trending a fizzled out shallow system to the west... That's what I see...

Explain? The GFS did trend weaker in the short term, but did not fizzle it at all. Are you assuming this is the beginning of the GFS caving to an opened up system?

The model runs showing a very weak system as it moves west of the Caribbean.