ATL: DANNY - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
TheStormExpert

#501 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:35 pm

:uarrow: The 18z GFS also looks to have two weaker friends behind it! :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
perk
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:35 am
Location: Richmond Texas

Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#502 Postby perk » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:39 pm

Danny is just north of Haiti at hour 186.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Siker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 904
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: Miami, FL

#503 Postby Siker » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:43 pm

Instantweathermaps has terrible resolution but runs so much more quickly than others.

228 hours, in the Florida Straits headed WNW.
0 likes   
Top
TheStormExpert

Re:

#504 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:46 pm

Siker wrote:Instantweathermaps has terrible resolution but runs so much more quickly than others.

228 hours, in the Florida Straits headed WNW.

With such a forecasted small system I wonder if this is why the Euro is having trouble doing much with it? Hmmm...
0 likes   
Top
stormlover2013

Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#505 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:50 pm

lol gfs is having so many problems lol, flip flop flip flop
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Siker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 904
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#506 Postby Siker » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:54 pm

Panama City landfall at 288 hours.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
perk
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:35 am
Location: Richmond Texas

Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#507 Postby perk » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:54 pm

Hour 234 south of the Florida Straits moving WNW.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5868
Age: 42
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:
Contact Hammy

#508 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:03 pm

GFS sticking to it's guns intensity-wise, gotta give it credit for intensity consistency at least :lol:
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1069
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#509 Postby N2FSU » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:04 pm

Image

trending towards Euro with a more westerly track?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
perk
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:35 am
Location: Richmond Texas

Re:

#510 Postby perk » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:08 pm

Hammy wrote:GFS sticking to it's guns intensity-wise, gotta give it credit for intensity consistency at least :lol:


But not track wise.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
perk
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:35 am
Location: Richmond Texas

Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#511 Postby perk » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:09 pm

N2FSU wrote:Image

trending towards Euro with a more westerly track?


That's what i call a sizeable shift to the west.
0 likes   
Top
stormlover2013

Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#512 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:13 pm

Fish to the panhandle!!!! Lol atleast we can still watch and have something to do
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 16275
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#513 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:14 pm

This is the problem you'll get when you have a model running 4 times a day and 16 days out. Massive flip flopping.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23703
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#514 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:28 pm

18Z GFS going now with the Euro is far as the 500MB pattern in the long-range. No longer does it show the big trough along the Eastern seaboard of the U.S. Look how different it is from the 12Z run. Also, not sure anybody in South Florida wants to see a system in the SE Bahamas with this type of pattern this time of year.

Image
0 likes   
Top
stormlover2013

Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#515 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:31 pm

one run, will keep flip flopping or go poof gone like euro, but still long time to watch
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4886
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#516 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:32 pm

Trending a little ominously for Fl and GOMers but still a long ways off. We get inside 5 days, then I'll start to worry.
0 likes   
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7240
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#517 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:38 pm

ronjon wrote:Trending a little ominously for Fl and GOMers but still a long ways off. We get inside 5 days, then I'll start to worry.


inside 5 days with euro and gfs agreement but euro always takes priority until further notice...been that way for several years
0 likes   
Top
stormlover2013

Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#518 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:42 pm

euro run still scary though in terms of pattern with what its showing with that ridge because if danny does make it through there into the gom watch out
0 likes   
Top
CYCLONE MIKE
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2183
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:04 pm
Location: Gonzales, LA

Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#519 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:47 pm

Gfs is really struggling, just flopping and thrashing around like a fish out of water right now. Troughs, dry air, shear, high pressure really putting it to the test, doesn't know how to resolve things. Not even sure if can be trusted 5 days out right now.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23703
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#520 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:49 pm

Euro and GFS basically show the same pattern and have Danny or whatever is left of it at the same area in 8-10 days. Pretty darn good agreement!
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 50 guests