ATL: DANNY - Models

[johngaltfla]

Evening all,

Don't post a lot I have been watching this storm form, and am always tracking because of my interest in tropical weather. We all know long term tracks are just a guess. But I am becoming a bit more concerned with how the models keep showing a path towards Florida. On the that run I cannot tell where it makes land fall in the Keys before skirting the west coast, anyone want to place a guess.

At your request. This run, 300 hours out:

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Very scary run if it were to verify,

[stormlover2013]

What model is that one?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

If I am not mistaken it is the NAVGEM, unless I confused two different models posted a page or so back.

[johngaltfla]

What model is that one?

GFS via NHC.

[tropicwatch]

Anybody now what is up with this site http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time= it has been super slow to update most of the day.

[tropicwatch]

of course it updates after I post the url

[gatorcane]

[fox13weather]

Landfall near Tampa this run.

Yup. And not a winner for those of us south of the Bay either.

The models are obligated to nail south Florida at least twice a season...and the last south Florida hit was?

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

336 hour run?? The Farmers Almanac forecast has as much credibility

[SFLcane]

Another view at 00z models....

[floridasun78]

Evening all,

Don't post a lot I have been watching this storm form, and am always tracking because of my interest in tropical weather. We all know long term tracks are just a guess. But I am becoming a bit more concerned with how the models keep showing a path towards Florida. On the that run I cannot tell where it makes land fall in the Keys before skirting the west coast, anyone want to place a guess.

At your request. This run, 300 hours out:

i seen alot run do this other hurr few days i bet got going to nw Caribbean not south fl if stay together

[gatorcane]

As an aside, the GFS long-range is showing more activity behind Danny over the next couple of weeks with more threats to the Leewards. Could be a busy stretch here for the MDR.

[johngaltfla]

336 hour run?? The Farmers Almanac forecast has as much credibility

THANKFULLY!

But a lot of us remember Charlie still. I'll get excited a tad bit more if it confirms again in a week or so.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

336 hour run?? The Farmers Almanac forecast has as much credibility

Agree. I know this has been a painfully boring season thus far but it seems an awful lot of people are getting way too worked up over one or two super long range models and its ensembles. Let's remember how far off these models can and will be for 12-14 days out, hundreds and hundreds of miles. In a few days they could very well be showing our resident east coast trough building back in just like it is going to do this weekend and this thing goes up and out and is never a threat to the US, if it even survives which I'm nowhere near convinced it will.

[tolakram]

336 hour run?? The Farmers Almanac forecast has as much credibility

Agree. I know this has been a painfully boring season thus far but it seems an awful lot of people are getting way too worked up over one or two super long range models and its ensembles. Let's remember how far off these models can and will be for 12-14 days out, hundreds and hundreds of miles. In a few days they could very well be showing our resident east coast trough building back in just like it is going to do this weekend and this thing goes up and out and is never a threat to the US, if it even survives which I'm nowhere near convinced it will.

Mike, you are getting worked up about people getting worked up! I would rather people be prepared for a dud then downcast this thing until it's too late. I think many folks here know how long range it is, but it's fun to talk about and this IS the forum for it.

[toad strangler]

336 hour run?? The Farmers Almanac forecast has as much credibility

THANKFULLY!

But a lot of us remember Charlie still. I'll get excited a tad bit more if it confirms again in a week or so.

That was Charley.

[WPBWeather]

Are any models showing a turning trough along the east coast in the near term? If so, perhaps someone with a cite (not an opinion) could post that. Thanks.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What is a turning trough? No model but this should do

MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE COUNTRY WED AND THURS BUT STALL WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. DESPITE THIS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW IN
TOWARDS THAT BOUNDARY AND ANY UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER. THAT COMBINATION WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THUS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

A GRADUALLY DRYING OUT WILL TAKE PLACE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN.

[WPBWeather]

What is a turning trough? No model but this should do

MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE COUNTRY WED AND THURS BUT STALL WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. DESPITE THIS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW IN
TOWARDS THAT BOUNDARY AND ANY UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER. THAT COMBINATION WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THUS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

A GRADUALLY DRYING OUT WILL TAKE PLACE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN.

Thanks, but this doesn't do. Any models anyone? Any troughs that could turn a storm?

[blp]

336 hour run?? The Farmers Almanac forecast has as much credibility

Agree. I know this has been a painfully boring season thus far but it seems an awful lot of people are getting way too worked up over one or two super long range models and its ensembles. Let's remember how far off these models can and will be for 12-14 days out, hundreds and hundreds of miles. In a few days they could very well be showing our resident east coast trough building back in just like it is going to do this weekend and this thing goes up and out and is never a threat to the US, if it even survives which I'm nowhere near convinced it will.

Mike, you are getting worked up about people getting worked up! I would rather people be prepared for a dud then downcast this thing until it's too late. I think many folks here know how long range it is, but it's fun to talk about and this IS the forum for it.

Amen, thank you for the post, could not have said it better myself.