ATL: DANNY - Models

[stormlover2013]

Longs ways out and I mean long ways, will keep flip flopping but this gives us something to watch that's for sure!!!!! I don't look at anything past 7 days, but atleast this gives us time to watch

[ronjon]

Hahaha...which means at 10 days out it'll never hit florida.

[BobHarlem]

So fantasyland range GFS US landfall projection #1 is around Marathon Key (ala Donna in 1960) on August 31st? I'd be curious to see how far off this winds up being.

[ronjon]

Looks like a hurricane Donna track in 1960.

[SFLcane]

18Z models...

[blp]

18z Navgem FWIW:

[gatorcane]

Thanks for posting that NAVGEM run NDG. The NAVGEM track-wise is similar to the UKMET as it take it WNW just north of the islands under a building ridge heading for the SE Bahamas. Here is another view of how the 18Z NAVGEM ends.

[cycloneye]

We were laughing at HWRF but maybe it may be the best one for Danny.A coup.

[adam0983]

Any chances this storm will affect Florida or the US. Just an opinion not a forecast

[johngaltfla]

Landfall near Tampa this run.

Yup. And not a winner for those of us south of the Bay either.

[northjaxpro]

quote="cycloneye"]We were laughing at HWRF but maybe it may be the best one for Danny.A coup.[/quote]

I tell you this much, if Danny stays relatively intact and tracks north of theCaribbean Islands like the NAVGEM is showing on that latest run and if conditions remain st least marginally conducive at that time, that would potentially be an omnious path for a lot of folks down the road. However, too much can happen between now and then, so l am just going to assess things with Danny one day at a time for the time being.

[Nimbus]

The first forecast will be for the islands and that is not certain yet.
That ridge looks very strong if Danny misses that transitory TUT weakness there is lots of room to sweep the track left later.

[stormlover2013]

Don't even look past the 7 day track but what we do know is we have something to watch and stay up late to track

[jlauderdal]

Landfall near Tampa this run.

Yup. And not a winner for those of us south of the Bay either.

The models are obligated to nail south Florida at least twice a season...and the last south Florida hit was?

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

[Hammy]

We were laughing at HWRF but maybe it may be the best one for Danny.A coup.

It did pretty well with Ana/Bill intensities, as it (along with NAM) were the only two models that showed it intensifying to where it did. Also Cristobal and Edouard last year (the only two that I recall checking it for). That said, all the models are untested as far as MDR development post-upgrades so far.

[TheStormExpert]

Landfall near Tampa this run.

Yup. And not a winner for those of us south of the Bay either.

The models are obligated to nail south Florida at least twice a season...and the last south Florida hit was?

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

I see Give Florida Something is back at it!

[Dean4Storms]

So what we can take from the latest models overall is an increasing threat to the NE Carib. Islands, from there a lot can change this far out.

[TheStormExpert]

The Big Picture. Looks impressive tonight! We'll see how it does over the next day or so.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Landfall near Tampa this run.

Yup. And not a winner for those of us south of the Bay either.

Evening all,

Don't post a lot I have been watching this storm form, and am always tracking because of my interest in tropical weather. We all know long term tracks are just a guess. But I am becoming a bit more concerned with how the models keep showing a path towards Florida. On the that run I cannot tell where it makes land fall in the Keys before skirting the west coast, anyone want to place a guess.

[cycloneye]

[bCHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC WED AUG 19 2015

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DANNY (AL042015) 20150819 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
150819 0000 150819 1200 150820 0000 150820 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.1N 38.3W 11.8N 40.5W 12.1N 42.2W 12.3N 43.6W
BAMD 11.1N 38.3W 11.4N 40.3W 11.7N 42.0W 12.0N 43.6W
BAMM 11.1N 38.3W 11.4N 40.3W 11.8N 41.8W 12.1N 43.2W
LBAR 11.1N 38.3W 11.6N 40.5W 12.2N 42.8W 13.0N 45.1W
SHIP 45KTS 58KTS 70KTS 79KTS
DSHP 45KTS 58KTS 70KTS 79KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
150821 0000 150822 0000 150823 0000 150824 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.6N 44.7W 13.5N 47.3W 14.7N 51.0W 16.1N 56.1W
BAMD 12.5N 45.2W 13.6N 48.6W 14.6N 52.8W 16.0N 57.9W
BAMM 12.5N 44.5W 13.5N 47.5W 14.4N 51.4W 15.3N 56.5W
LBAR 13.8N 47.1W 15.7N 50.3W 17.8N 53.6W 20.0N 57.5W
SHIP 84KTS 92KTS 91KTS 91KTS
DSHP 84KTS 92KTS 91KTS 91KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.1N LONCUR = 38.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 35.9W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 33.7W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 40NM
][/b]