ATL: DANNY - Models

[PTrackerLA]

I've been away from the board for only 2 hours, but the posts have definitely cooled from the earlier model comments...

Dynamical models are definitely at odds with the NHC forecast. I don't recall seeing this occur too often. I'm actually quite intrigued as to how this situation evolves, this could be a learning experience .

[adam0983]

Based on the current location of Tropical Depression 4 I think it will be highly unlikely for a US Landfall due to the location of the storm. I see this heading into Central America or the Yucantan if it survives the shear and the El Nino. Just an Opinion not a forcast.

[hurricanekid416]

Based on the models, the nhc seems to be overdoing the intensity

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

An upper-level ridge dominates the central and eastern Atlantic, and as a result shear should remain near or below 10 knots for at least the next 5 days. The only inhibitor will be dust and mid-level dry air.

[ronjon]

12z GFDL which previous runs didn't develop, now develops Danny into a hurricane at 972 mbs and 82 kts.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2015081812-four04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[gatorcane]

UKMET and ECMWF battling it out! GFS is lost.

From the 5pm NHC disco:

"The UKMET retains the weakness in the ridge longer, taking the
cyclone northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In contrast, the ECMWF
model strengthens the ridge sooner, which drives Danny more westward
and considerably faster at 96 and 120 hours. The GFS poorly
initialized Danny this morning, and it is noticeably slower than
all of the available model guidance and, therefore, has been given
much less weight on this forecast cycle.[/i]"

[NCSTORMMAN]

UKMET and ECMWF battling it out!

From the 5pm NHC disco:

The UKMET retains the weakness in the ridge longer, taking the
cyclone northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In contrast, the ECMWF
model strengthens the ridge sooner, which drives Danny more westward
and considerably faster at 96 and 120 hours.

The GFS is lost....

The GFS poorly
initialized Danny this morning, and it is noticeably slower than
all of the available model guidance and, therefore, has been given
much less weight on this forecast cycle.

So, they are saying it is a battle between UKMET and EURO lol they bashed the GFS.

[jlauderdal]

Based on the models, the nhc seems to be overdoing the intensity

good news is the models arent the only tools they use

[SeminoleWind]

Quick question.
I always thought the BAMM BAMMS and BAMMD when they are grouped together like they are leads to more likelihood of less shear forecasted?
wouldn't that indicate in theory since SSTs are good that less shear much better chance for development?
Excuse my ignorance if i am wrong.

[gatorcane]

I wonder if the GFS will initialize properly on this run starting now? If so very curious what it does with Danny.

[tolakram]

I wonder if the GFS will initialize properly on this run starting now? If so very curious what it does with Danny.

18Z loses it at 24 hours.

[SouthFLTropics]

I wonder if the GFS will initialize properly on this run starting now? If so very curious what it does with Danny.

18Z loses it at 24 hours.

I do hope your comment is a joke. If it's not then any remaining faith in the GFS just went out the window.

SFT

[perk]

I wonder if the GFS will initialize properly on this run starting now? If so very curious what it does with Danny.

18Z loses it at 24 hours.

It does not lose Danny thru 54 hours.

[Blown Away]

Looks like the 18z models will generally move Danny towards the NE Caribbean... Doesn't look like a Carribean cruiser for now...

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS down to 996MB at 90 hours

[Ivanhater]

18Z gfs is stronger this run...72 hours

[gatorcane]

90 hours and ramping up:

[tolakram]

I wonder if the GFS will initialize properly on this run starting now? If so very curious what it does with Danny.

18Z loses it at 24 hours.

Woops, not correct. Maybe viewed a cached image.

[tropicwatch]

[gatorcane]

GFS getting stronger and heading west towards Leewards. 18Z has it at 991MB.

Notice how it is speeding up the timeline here. To move that quickly, that must be a strong ridge to the north.