ATL: DANNY - Models

[LarryWx]

Agree about the very low likelihood for a strong Niño storm that first becomes a TC in the E MDR and then takes this classic track followed by a hit on the CONUS though one did develop there and later hit the CONUS:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

There'd obviously be a better chance if it would become a TC in the W MDR like these two during strong Nino's and later hit the US:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[floridasun78]

:uarrow: Agree about the very low likelihood for a Niño storm that first becomes a TC in the E MDR though one did develop there and later hit the CONUS:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

There'd obviously be a better chance if it would become a TC in the W MDR like these two during strong Nino's and later hit the US:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

all those close to fl

[FireRat]

Wow it's been a while since the last conceivable threat from the southeast! El Nino will certainly pose a challenge to anything that tries to come at the CONUS from this direction, but if any storm does break through the obstacles, watch out! It will have a feast on all the "untouched" above-normal ocean temps all around South FL and points just southeast! Andrew in 1992 was such a case, we gotta watch these things closely...even in El Nino years, just can't let the guard down just yet. Lets see how this storm evolves...or not.

[Hammy]

0z Euro has backed off considerably from the earlier run, now showing a system of barely storm intensity for the duration and weakening as it enters the Caribbean.

[Siker]

0z Euro has backed off considerably from the earlier run, now showing a system of barely storm intensity for the duration and weakening as it enters the Caribbean.

Not sure which run you're looking at... following this on WxBell, intensities are identical to the 12z run up until ~156 hours, when it does not become a hurricane.

[La Breeze]

:uarrow: It seems kind of unusual to have a tight consensus of model tracks with a developing system isn't it?

I thought so as well, panama.

[La Breeze]

0z Euro has backed off considerably from the earlier run, now showing a system of barely storm intensity for the duration and weakening as it enters the Caribbean.

Wouldn't a weaker storm tend to stay on a more westerly course and an intensifying storm would tend to curve more to the northwest or north?

[Hammy]

0z Euro has backed off considerably from the earlier run, now showing a system of barely storm intensity for the duration and weakening as it enters the Caribbean.

Wouldn't a weaker storm tend to stay on a more westerly course and an intensifying storm would tend to curve more to the northwest or north?

Pretty much, looks like after a day or two we could have a fast-moving storm go through the Antilles but weaken once it enters the Caribbean. Chantal in 2013 could be a good comparison.

[Brent]

Euro looks a lot weaker to me too... just a tropical storm at max intensity, weakens as it comes into the islands, and dies in the Caribbean.

It is 16 mb weaker when it passes through the Leewards(1005 this run vs 989 last run)




and then no sfc low beyond that

[jlauderdal]

0z Euro has backed off considerably from the earlier run, now showing a system of barely storm intensity for the duration and weakening as it enters the Caribbean.

welcome to a strong el nino...models can develop all the storms they want and we know they do....reality is something completely different

[abajan]

0z Euro has backed off considerably from the earlier run, now showing a system of barely storm intensity for the duration and weakening as it enters the Caribbean.

welcome to a strong el nino...models can develop all the storms they want and we know they do....reality is something completely different

But don't the models take El Niño into account?

[tolakram]

0Z Euro looks much more realistic, 997MB looks to be the lowest pressure as it passes over the islands, then it appears to be destroyed by shear.

[Frank2]

GFS seems to lose it also...

[WPBWeather]

I'm glad everyone is on the same page with this storm (not).

[tolakram]

GFS, at least at the resolution I'm looking at, does not develop this wave but does develop the wave behind and sends it on a more NW track. Personally I think the track will be a little more north than the Euro is showing, but not sure how much more north and how that will effect strength.


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[gatorcane]

Nobody bothered to post the 00Z UKMET? . The UKMET has been very consistent run after run.

Below it shows it going north if the islands and bending WNW at the end.

[gatorcane]

Looking way out the long range as far as steering, the ECMWF ensembles continue to show an expansive ridge sitting just north of the Caribbean islands all the way to Florida. That would allow the system to heads west if it is in the Caribbean or even north of the Caribbean no matter if it is a weak or stronger system. The ECMWF operational is showing a trough over the Eastern United States at 240 hours, with 96L around Jamaica as a weak low. If 96L were deeper it would curve north into that weakness. Needless to say there is disagreement, but both scenarios suggest the door may be open for a U.S. hit. Obviously WAY too early to know if it will impact the U.S.. The Caribbean islands are the first that may feel the impact.

ECMWF Ensembles 240 hours:


ECMWF Operational 240 hours:

[jlauderdal]

Looking way out the long range as far as steering, the ECMWF ensembles continue to show an expansive ridge sitting just north of the Caribbean islands all the way to Florida. That would allow the system to heads west if it is in the Caribbean or even north of the Caribbean no matter if it is a weak or stronger system. The ECMWF operational is showing a trough over the Eastern United States at 240 hours, with 96L around Jamaica as a weak low. If 96L were deeper it would curve north into that weakness. Needless to say there is disagreement, but both scenarios suggest the door may be open for a U.S. hit. Obviously WAY too early to know if it will impact the U.S.. The Caribbean islands are the first that may feel the impact.

ECMWF Ensembles 240 hours:


ECMWF Operational 240 hours:

that ridge has been locked down for months it seems..few breaks have occurred but our florida east coast drought is thanks to that ridge

[tolakram]

Looking at last nights euro run I realized it actually moved the storm south of west for a few days. When was the last storm to move south southwest in this region?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2015081800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[jlauderdal]

Looking at last nights euro run I realized it actually moved the storm south of west for a few days. When was the last storm to move south southwest in this region?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2015081800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

unusual for that deep in the tropics but the setup this year is unusual....modeling is going to be marginal the rest of the season not that it has been stellar the last few years