WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Goni going over warmer waters untapped by Soudelor...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM WEST OF
ANATAHAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A 10-
NM EYE. A 151719Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL EYEWALL WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH
IS ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. TY GONI IS
UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), INCREASING 25 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS FROM 55 KNOTS AT 15/18Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80
KNOTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE JUMPED TO
T4.5 (77 KNOTS). TY 16W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING LOW VWS, WARM SST AND
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, TY 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MODEL GUIDANCE FANS OUT WITH
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK SPEEDS AND THE TIMING OF THE
POLEWARD TURN. CURRENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN EXTREMELY
COMPLEX SYNOPTIC SITUATION AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGS INTO NORTHEASTERN CHINA, WEAKENING THE STR NORTH OF TY 16W.
ADDITIONALLY, TY 17W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF
HONSHU UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO ITS NORTH.
CONSEQUENTLY, TY 16W IS LIKELY TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND EXHIBIT SLOW AND POSSIBLY EVEN QUASI-STATIONARY
MOTION NEAR TAIWAN. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT THE
TROUGH WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF 16W IN THE WEST SEA. FOR
THIS REASON, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Nice early morning visible image of the pinhole eye.

[Yellow Evan]

Likely nearing 100 knots with a nice small eye. Barring an ERC, this should be a Cat 4 in 12 hours.

[SouthDadeFish]

Visible satellite looks fantastic right now, but microwave imagery reveals the secondary eyewall continues to develop

[Yellow Evan]

Not sure the wind field has caught up, but agree with T6.5.

TPPN10 PGTW 170017

A. TYPHOON 16W (GONI)

B. 16/2332Z

C. 16.46N

D. 141.72E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D3.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURR BY W (+0.5 W
ADJ) YIELDS A DT OF 6.5. PT YIELDS A 5.5 WHILE MET YIELDS A
5.0. DBO DT. BREAKING CONSTRAINTS (CHANGE OF 1.0 OVER 6HRS,
FINAL T-NO +/- 1.0 OF MET).

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/1930Z 16.13N 142.35E MMHS
16/2027Z 16.15N 142.33E WIND
16/2040Z 16.12N 142.15E SSMS


MARTINEZ

[cycloneye]

And here we go with 120kts.

16W GONI 150817 0000 16.5N 141.7E WPAC 120 933

[cycloneye]

Peak now is 150kts.

[Yellow Evan]

Only question here is when will it ERC? Microwave shows an outer eyewall.

[dexterlabio]

Like the previous typhoons that initially had pinhole eyes, I bet that will morph into a larger and fiercer-looking eye. Soudelor didn't become a Cat5 with that tiny eye until EWRC happened.

I'm not sure about the moisture around Goni but the warm SST's and friendly shear will definitely aid to a successful eyewall replacement. After all this is a classic El Nino year.

[dexterlabio]

SK model has this storm a bit to close to the Northern PI for comfort this guidance suggests its likely they would get some effects of this storm it does look a large size TY on realtime satpics.

That's quite a similar track to Soudelor, however Soudelor didn't affect the Northern PI that much. If anything its effect to Luzon will mainly be the enhanced wet monsoon.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322 NM NORTHWEST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED LLCC WITH
A 6 NM PINHOLE EYE. A 170641Z GPM IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL EYEWALL WITH A
SIGNIFICANT MOAT REGION AND TIGHTLY-CURVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. THERE IS VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON THE SMALL EYE. TY GONI IS UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION,
INCREASING NEARLY 60 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH AN ASSESSED
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY LOW (LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS) VWS AND VIGOROUS DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TY 16W
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING LOW VWS, WARM SST AND EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW, TY 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THROUGH
TAU 24 WITH A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS. HOWEVER, DUE TO INCREASED VWS,
EXPECT A SLIGHT DIP IN INTENSITY AROUND TAU 48 DUE TO AN APPROACHING
TROUGH CAUSING SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SYSTEM. BEYOND TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM WILL RE-INTENSIFY TO A SECOND PEAK OF 140 KNOTS DUE TO
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CAUSED BY THE PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MODEL GUIDANCE WIDENS WITH REGARD TO
BOTH SPEED AND TIMING. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
COMPLICATED WITH THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND A SMALL STR
ANCHORED OVER SHIKOKU AND A DEEP HIGH OVER EASTERN CHINA. THE SMALL
SIZE OF TY 16W WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO FORCE POLEARD THOUGH ANY
(MARGINAL) BREAK IN THE RIDGE DUE TO THE PASSING ZONAL TROUGH. AS
SUCH, TY GONI IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS TRACK AND SLOWLY TURN POLEWARD
DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, TO INCLUDE SOME INFLUENCE OF
TY 17W TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SHIKOKU STR,
REINFORCING THE RIDGES POSITION. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. BECAUSE OF THE
COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Visible satellite looks fantastic right now, but microwave imagery reveals the secondary eyewall continues to develop

That looks better than Wilma, the only known pinhole in the Atlantic...

This is being underestimated big time...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Visible satellite looks fantastic right now, but microwave imagery reveals the secondary eyewall continues to develop

That looks better than Wilma, the only known pinhole in the Atlantic...

This is being underestimated big time...

Really? Every pinhole eye storm is a category 5????????????

125 kts seems right, since the winds usually lag with the satellite presentation.

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 170939

A. TYPHOON 16W (GONI)

B. 17/0832Z

C. 17.38N

D. 139.85E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. SUBTRACTED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD
A DT OF 5.0. MET AGREES WITH DT YIELDING A 5.0. WHILE PT YIELDS
A 5.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/0423Z 16.83N 140.75E MMHS
17/0439Z 16.78N 140.82E ATMS
17/0641Z 17.05N 140.25E GPMI


LEMBKE

[euro6208]

Wow....

look at how small that eye was...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 AUG 2015 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 17:21:54 N Lon : 139:23:28 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 954.3mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 4.6

Center Temp : -69.7C Cloud Region Temp : -73.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 107km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 21.3 degrees

[xtyphooncyclonex]

That argument is getting old 'winds usually lag with the satellite presentation' what other support can you can post to justify this system is not being underestimated in intensity.

This system is underestimated I NEVER even mentioned about being overestimated

I just said that this is not a cat 5

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I can recall you have previously posted a good compassion between JMA and JTWC-1min is the JMA gust speed is likely the 1min sustained and i agree with that so 125kts would be under estimating intensity.


JMA Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)

Oh yeah, agreed. The JTWC is underestimating this storm, not the JMA

[euro6208]

Remains 115 knots...

16W GONI 150817 1200 17.4N 139.3E WPAC 115 937