2015 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Euro shows Jimena in 10 days.

GFS has nothing, 16 days out.

GFS is having genesis issues this year in this basin. The NASA model does show a system after 94E along with the ECMWF. So does the CMC.

[Yellow Evan]

0z NASA is quite interesting.

[NDG]

So when is the EPAC season really going to kick in? This August so has been uneventful compared to August of last year but August 1997 was also slower than last year to be fair.

[Yellow Evan]

So when is the EPAC season really going to kick in? This August so has been uneventful compared to August of last year but August 1997 was also slower than last year to be fair.

Probably September. Right now, waves aren't doing too good, shear form the Caribbean is spreading to the SE part of the basin. Like most strong El Ninos, lots of the action is west of 130W. I'm not all that surprised honestly, given how strong this Nino has gotten.

[NDG]

So when is the EPAC season really going to kick in? This August so has been uneventful compared to August of last year but August 1997 was also slower than last year to be fair.

Probably September. Right now, waves aren't doing too good, shear form the Caribbean is spreading to the SE part of the basin. Like most strong El Ninos, lots of the action is west of 130W. I'm not all that surprised honestly, given how strong this Nino has gotten.

Your explanation makes sense, Atlantic's TWs most of them have not made it past the Caribbean.

[galaxy401]

Do models show an uptick in the next couple weeks? It's quite interesting how one zone can become so hostile, it can affect entire basins...

[Yellow Evan]

Do models show an uptick in the next couple weeks? It's quite interesting how one zone can become so hostile, it can affect entire basins...

They show the WPAC monsoonal trough making it to the CPAC, and show better African waves, but thats'a about it. The NASA model, however, is somewhat bullish in the long range, but it's NASA.

[cycloneye]

Is somewhat surprising that despite the Strong El Nino,this basin has not responded as it should with the ENSO factor but I guess there are more things that is not letting it blossom like what occurred early in the season.

[CaliforniaResident]

I would have thought we would be up to "O" by now and we're not even up to "I" yet; very disappointing. Where are all those El Nino spawned storms? I'm still thinking that this is a lull or the "calm before the storm" and the EPAC will blossom in full fury in a couple of weeks. Are there any signals in the way long range that support my hunch? Ignacio? Jimena? Kevin? LINDA, where are you?

[Yellow Evan]

I would have thought we would be up to "O" by now and we're not even up to "I" yet; very disappointing. Where are all those El Nino spawned storms? I'm still thinking that this is a lull or the "calm before the storm" and the EPAC will blossom in full fury in a couple of weeks. Are there any signals in the way long range that support my hunch? Ignacio? Jimena? Kevin? LINDA, where are you?

Not trying to sound rude, but I've noted several times that El Nino years aren't as active as ppl make them out to be.

[Kingarabian]

CPAC ACE counts for the EPAC so don't fear! Kilo is almost here!

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF

[CaliforniaResident]

0z ECMWF

Didn't they have a similar run about 10 days ago and it turned out to only be a TD that failed to develop? Oh well, I'm still leaning towards a very active September.

I looked up 1997 (which ironically had the same name list as this year) and we were ONLY at "Ignacio" this time of the year and didn't get superactive until September.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Paci ... ane_season
Most notable from that year was hurricane Linda: once a powerful cat 5 with sustained winds of 185 mph, it was forecast to make landfall in California as a category 1 at one point (it was forecast to make landfall about 5 days after peak and even the colder waters wouldn't have killed it entirely due to it being annular; it would have only weakened the sustained winds from 185 mph to about 75 mph) but then it took a turn away from land and only brought a few light rain showers to the greater L.A and San Diego area (still a major news event in summer).

Right now our SST off of San Diego is at 76 F and it will only warm into September so I'm still not ruling out a very rare California landfall even if EPAC activity is much, much lower than I anticipated. Our SST are actually warmer than they were in 1997 at this time even if the El Nino is not quite as strong yet.

[Yellow Evan]

Yes, that system was a TD. I agree September could be active as models like NASA, ECMWF, and CMC have been hinting.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF

[Yellow Evan]

An area of disturbed weather has formed about 950 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions could become favorable for some development by the
weekend while the system moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Yellow Evan]

1. An area of disturbed weather centered about 950 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions could become
favorable for gradual development of this system over the weekend
while the disturbance moves westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Yellow Evan]

1. A tropical wave located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized
showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days while the disturbance moves westward at
about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

2. A low pressure area is forecast to form several hundred miles south
of the coast of Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for subsequent slow development
of the system while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS is now on the EPAC bandwagon again.

[CaliforniaResident]

18z GFS is now on the EPAC bandwagon again.

Odds look only mediocre: what would be Ignacio only has a 50 percent chance of forming within 5 days (down from 60 percent forecast yesterday). The storm that follows it only has a 30 percent chance of forming within 5 days.