Texas Summer-2015

[Ntxw]

Here are the temperature maps for the two years to compare out of curiosity. You know it's bad when I have time to pull summer anomaly maps, just sad!

[gboudx]

I like the second section the best. From jeff:

Heat Advisory remains in effect until 800pm this evening

Area continues to bake under strong upper level ridging, yesterday evening soundings are starting to show small changes in the upper pattern which will finally lead to a break in this heat wave. This will not happen before some of the hottest temperatures of 2015 are felt today and Tuesday. IAH has recorded 4 straight days at or above 100 including 102 yesterday. We continue to maintain borderline heat advisory criteria each afternoon with heat index values topping out in the 106-110 range…generally highest near the passage of the seabreeze front when dewpoints spike.

Will go with widespread low 100’s this afternoon with most sites hitting 100-103 and a degree or two warmer on Tuesday. Tuesday will feature the approach of a weak cool front and compressional heating ahead of this boundary and SW surface winds will support a rapid and strong warm up. Highs on Tuesday of 102-105 appear likely. Increasing moisture an incoming boundary into a super-heated late day air mass looks to support a chance of strong thunderstorms. Sub-cloud layer will be dry and soundings show an inverted “V” profile favorable for strong and possibly damaging winds. Models have become a little more aggressive with rain chances on Tuesday and may need to up chances to 30% if the trend continues.

Boundary will be across the area on Wednesday and with clouds and a better chance at thunderstorms temperatures will likely be held to the upper 90’s. Not overly confident the front will push off the coast and allow a drier air mass to move SW into the region Thursday and Friday. Should the drier air mass work into the region high temperatures will be back at or above 100 for the end of the week.

More Significant Changes:
A strong upper level trough will move into the eastern US this week and then begin to retrograde (move westward). Models are coming into better agreement on this trough moving westward along the US Gulf coast late this weekend into early next week with the heat ridge breaking down and shifting into the SE US. This would be a favorable moist flow pattern for TX and both the ECMWF and GFS show decent height falls over the region by early next week. This change would certainly allow for cooling afternoon temperatures and possibly a daily shot of seabreeze thunderstorms.

Fire Weather:
Dry air aloft continues to mix to the surface each afternoon prior to the seabreeze. BUSH IAH dewpoint of 69 Saturday afternoon shot up to 77 with the seabreeze passage. Near critical fire weather conditions are expected each afternoon between noon and 400pm prior to the seabreeze passage. Luckily winds have been running less than 15mph. Fine fuels are showing poor conditions with fine fuel moisture running at less than 10%. Pan evaporation rates are on the order of .25 to .35 of an inch daily over the region. Over the past 7 days there have been 24 wild/grass fires over SE TX. KBDI values are running 700-800 over much of Trinity, Polk, San Jacinto, and Liberty Counties indicating no moisture in the soil layer 7-8 inches deep.

67 TX counties are under outdoor burn bans including:
Chambers, Galveston, Matagorda, Wharton, Waller, Grimes, Madison, Walker, San Jacinto, Houston.

[Brent]

GFS looks better in the long range... temps closer to 90 than 110.

[aggiecutter]

A little rain on the way:

[wxman57]

The 12Z Euro is about 2-3 days faster with moving the upper-level low westward into SE TX, placing it over SE TX by Monday (vs. Wed/Thu for the GFS).

[Tireman4]

The 12Z Euro is about 2-3 days faster with moving the upper-level low westward into SE TX, placing it over SE TX by Monday (vs. Wed/Thu for the GFS).

Umm, I know nothing. Should that worry you sir?

[Brent]

Such a tease:

[wxman57]

Umm, I know nothing. Should that worry you sir?

Shouldn't you be changing your avatar to this?

[Nikki]

It is so HOT! I sure hope this little blob in the GOM can bring us some rain!!!

[aggiecutter]

[aggiecutter]

[Brent]

For the first time that local 7 day forecast has zero 100's...

it's almost over guys.

[gpsnowman]

Yeah saw the same thing except tomorrow could hit 100. The drier air today has not made a bit of difference to me comfort wise. Still hot as hell and it sucks. Today I believe is the eleventh day of 100+ so this summer is nowhere near as bad as other summers here in the last 20 years. Anytime we Metroplexers are victims of a heat wave like this, fears of 1980, 1998, or 2011 are not unreasonable. The humidity has been awful but the temps have not been overly terrible. No records broken to my knowledge. I must admit, I was spoiled for two weeks in July in Mexico so the effects of this summer are not as full to me as many of you on the board. Brent(nice name by the way, mine also!) is correct in saying it is almost over. September and football will be here soon. The aromas of autumn with drier air and cooler breezes will soon be upon us. And hopefully some needed rain!!! As Carly Simon once said, "Anticipation".

[Tireman4]

Umm, I know nothing. Should that worry you sir?

Shouldn't you be changing your avatar to this?

Ha ha ha. You are a hoot sir. Just a hoot...sigh....

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Look at that high off of Cali coast.... Precursor to this winter some?

[MGC]

No where close to 100 on the Mississippi Coast. Of course we are dealing with near 80 dew points. I'll trade you some humidity.......MGC

[aggiecutter]

[Ntxw]

Look at that high off of Cali coast.... Precursor to this winter some?

That huge ridge you see in the GOA is a result of Molave (WPAC system) recurving and pumping it up.

Looks like the past few days was the highlight of summer and is now behind us. Can't rule out a few more 100's but could it be that is on it's last legs? Euro la la land hints at maybe sub 90 highs and rain.

[Tireman4]

Look at that high off of Cali coast.... Precursor to this winter some?

That huge ridge you see in the GOA is a result of Molave (WPAC system) recurving and pumping it up.

Looks like the past few days was the highlight of summer and is now behind us. Can't rule out a few more 100's but could it be that is on it's last legs? Euro la la land hints at maybe sub 90 highs and rain.

I hope so. I really do. I am suffering. My car A/C, such as it is, is on full blast. The heat is just saying..yeah right..

[weatherdude1108]

Look at that high off of Cali coast.... Precursor to this winter some?

That huge ridge you see in the GOA is a result of Molave (WPAC system) recurving and pumping it up.

Looks like the past few days was the highlight of summer and is now behind us. Can't rule out a few more 100's but could it be that is on it's last legs? Euro la la land hints at maybe sub 90 highs and rain.

I hope so. I really do. I am suffering. My car A/C, such as it is, is on full blast. The heat is just saying..yeah right..

Not laughing at your car A/C misery, just the personification of this miserable heat. I can relate all too well!