EPAC: HILDA- Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow:

http://i.imgur.com/tcrkUZQ.jpg

Not too beat up it seems. Should still be a major before too long.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  HILDA       EP102015  08/08/15  06 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    90    97   102   105   105   102    96    82    69    57    45    31    23
V (KT) LAND       90    97   102   105   105   102    96    82    69    57    45    31    23
V (KT) LGE mod    90   100   105   107   107   104    97    87    72    59    47    37    29
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        10     7     5     5     2     1    12    21    35    38    44    50    50
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     1     2     4     4    -1    -3     1     5     1     1     3     0    -2
SHEAR DIR         84    97    70    78    98   256   237   236   243   255   264   269   272
SST (C)         28.5  28.4  28.2  28.0  27.8  27.5  27.3  27.1  27.1  27.1  27.1  27.1  27.1
POT. INT. (KT)   150   149   147   144   142   139   136   133   133   133   133   133   133
200 MB T (C)   -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -51.0 -51.5 -51.3 -52.0 -52.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C)       8     7     7     7     7     7     7     6     7     7     7     7     8
700-500 MB RH     59    60    58    60    57    57    57    60    61    56    54    50    47
MODEL VTX (KT)    16    17    18    18    17    16    18    16    16    15    14    10     9
850 MB ENV VOR    31    27    26    32    36    32    29    29    28    14    35    29    23
200 MB DIV        14    25    29    42    38    41    64    95    54    40     9   -13   -30
700-850 TADV      -1    -2    -2    -2    -2     1     3     8    10     9     4     5     0
LAND (KM)       1697  1570  1445  1333  1222  1000   797   634   532   431   348   264   176
LAT (DEG N)     13.2  13.5  13.8  14.2  14.6  15.4  16.4  17.4  18.3  19.2  19.9  20.5  20.8
LONG(DEG W)    140.3 141.5 142.6 143.5 144.5 146.4 148.0 149.2 149.9 150.7 151.5 152.5 153.7
STM SPEED (KT)    12    12    10    10    10     9     8     7     6     5     5     6     6
HEAT CONTENT       9    10    18    23    18    24    36    25    24    20    17    15    18

SHIPS insists on near zero shear in 24-36 hours. Watch out if this verifies.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow:

http://i.imgur.com/tcrkUZQ.jpg

Not too beat up it seems. Should still be a major before too long.

Hard to make estimates without recon IMO. It's a small hurricane and a pinhole eye makes it worse.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow:

http://i.imgur.com/tcrkUZQ.jpg

Not too beat up it seems. Should still be a major before too long.

Hard to make estimates without recon IMO. It's a small hurricane and a pinhole eye makes it worse.

Best guess is around 95 knots. 105 easily if the eye warms a little.

[Kingarabian]

Best guess is around 95 knots. 105 easily if the eye warms a little.

Too bad recon won't fly in until another 3 days.

ECMWF and GFS pretty much the same idea. Keep moving it west until it gets picked up and then back west.

40kts of shear continues to sit right on top the Hawaiian islands. Boy are we lucky.

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

Eye has warmed:

[Kingarabian]

WTPA45 PHFO 080849 TCDCP5 HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015 1100 PM HST FRI AUG 07 2015 THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAT HILDA EXHIBITED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS RECENTLY EASED...WITH THE EYE BECOMING CLOUD-FILLED IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO AND SAB ARE 5.0/90 KT AND 5.5/102 KT RESPECTIVELY...WHILE ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE NEAR 4.5/77 KT. A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES YIELDS A 90 KT INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE RELATIVELY SMALL HURRICANE IS BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED TO ITS NORTH...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/13 KT. HILDA IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THEN EVEN MORE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON DAYS 3 AND 4 AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE. THE SLOWING IN FORWARD MOTION AND INCREASE IN LATITUDE ON DAYS 3 AND 4 WILL ALSO BE DUE TO THE CYCLONE/S INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER LOW ALOFT NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A RELATIVELY WEAK HILDA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AS THE SHALLOW SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS THROUGH DAY 3...AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ON DAYS 4 AND 5...IN DEFERENCE TO THE CHANGES IN THE GFEX GUIDANCE. A WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AS EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND THE HURRICANE TRAVERSES SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER. AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS HILDA WILL ENCOUNTER STEADILY INCREASING SHEAR AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE...AND BEGINS TO FEEL THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING NORTH OF HAWAII. SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES SHEAR VALUES NEAR 20 KT ON MONDAY MORNING WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KT BY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM BARELY HANGING ON AS A WEAK TROPICAL LOW BY DAY 5. THEREFORE A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO COMMENCE IN 48 HOURS...WITH RAPID WEAKENING STILL EXPECTED IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS AND THE IVCN CONSENSUS...BUT PRESENTS A SLOWER WEAKENING TREND ON DAY 5 THAN SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 13.3N 140.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 13.9N 142.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 14.6N 144.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 15.5N 146.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 16.4N 147.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 18.4N 149.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 20.0N 151.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 21.0N 153.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD

Sorry it's jumbled up. Posted on my phone.

Can't believe they cited ADT when it literally fixed on Hildas eye for only two frames.

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 13:19:29 N Lon : 141:00:21 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 979.5mb/ 77.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 6.4
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km
Center Temp : -22.9C Cloud Region Temp : -71.4C
Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

[Yellow Evan]

Now the eye has cleared out.

[Yellow Evan]

TPPZ02 PGTW 081203

A. HURRICANE 10E (HILDA)

B. 08/1131Z

C. 13.37N

D. 141.52W

E. THREE/GOES15

F. T5.0/5.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (-0.5 ADJ CMG) OF 5.0. PT AGREES WITH DT
WHILE MET IS UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE

TXPN41 PHFO 081147
TCSNP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1150 UTC SAT AUG 08 2015

A. Hurricane Hilda.

B. 08/1130Z.

C. 13.4°N.

D. 141.5°W.

E. Goes-15.

F. T5.0/5.0/d1.5/24 hours.

G. Eir/ir.

H. Remarks: Eye pattern with EIR bd black shade eye > 30 nm within white ring gives a 6.0 with an adjustment of -1.0 for a total DT of 5.0. MET is 4.0. PT is 5.0. FT based on DT.

I. Addl positions none.

$$

Ryshko.

TXPN24 KNES 081157
TCSCNP

A. 10E (HILDA)

B. 08/1130Z

C. 13.4N

D. 141.5W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...LG EYE SURROUNDED BY W RING AND EMBEDDED IN B YIELDS AN E#
OF 5.5. NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. DT IS 5.5. MET IS 4.5 AND PT IS 5.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO

Since then the eye has cleared. Time to go 100 for once IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  HILDA       EP102015  08/08/15  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    95    97    99    99    98    93    80    67    52    40    27    16   DIS
V (KT) LAND       95    97    99    99    98    93    80    67    52    40    27    16   DIS
V (KT) LGE mod    95    96    96    95    93    88    78    66    55    44    35    28    23
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         5     6     4     1     3     9    18    26    36    42    47    50    56
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     5     3     6     2    -2    -1     3     4     5     1    -1    -3    -4
SHEAR DIR         82    57    57   341   193   242   243   239   243   249   263   265   273
SST (C)         28.4  28.2  28.1  27.8  27.6  27.4  27.2  27.1  27.0  27.1  27.1  27.1  27.1
POT. INT. (KT)   149   146   145   142   140   137   134   133   132   133   132   132   132
200 MB T (C)   -51.2 -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -52.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     7     7     7     7     7     6     7     7     7     7
700-500 MB RH     59    57    60    58    57    57    61    62    60    57    55    52    51
MODEL VTX (KT)    18    18    18    17    16    18    16    15    13    12    10     8     7
850 MB ENV VOR    26    24    31    40    35    27    22    20    18    20    12     3    -1
200 MB DIV        21    28    50    36    30    52    70    79    59    38     9     1    -8
700-850 TADV      -2    -3    -1     0     0     3     6    12    11     8     3     3     0
LAND (KM)       1556  1445  1334  1224  1115   907   758   629   499   398   320   274   244
LAT (DEG N)     13.5  13.8  14.1  14.6  15.0  15.9  16.8  17.8  18.8  19.6  20.1  20.7  21.2
LONG(DEG W)    141.6 142.6 143.6 144.5 145.4 147.1 148.2 149.1 150.1 151.0 151.8 152.5 153.2
STM SPEED (KT)    11    10    10    10    10     8     7     7     6     5     5     4     3
HEAT CONTENT      14    22    28    20    15    20    33    24    21    17    16    15    15

So they went 95.

[Ntxw]

This looks like a major to me, these tiny eyes are always tough I would've given her the benefit of the doubt . If clearing and warming continues in the eye wouldn't be crazy to think cat 4 is possible.



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 13:32:26 N Lon : 141:45:52 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 980.4mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.9 6.6

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 13:25:31 N Lon : 141:49:16 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 976.7mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.8 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -36.3C Cloud Region Temp : -72.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 13:27:38 N Lon : 141:55:43 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 974.7mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 5.8 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -28.9C Cloud Region Temp : -72.1C

Scene Type : EYE

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
500 AM HST SAT AUG 08 2015

THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE OF HILDA HAD BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO SYNOPTIC
TIME...WITH A RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS NEARLY ENCIRCLING THE
CENTER AT TIMES. THIS LED TO DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PHFO/SAB/PGTW THAT RANGED BETWEEN 5.0/90 KT AND 5.5/102 KT.
THE ADDITIONAL WARMING OF THE EYE IN THE LAST COUPLE OF SATELLITE
IMAGES...AND COOLING EYE WALL TEMPERATURES...SUPPORTS INCREASING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY TO 100 KT...WHICH MAKES HILDA A
CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE.

LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY ACCOMPANIES THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HILDA IS CURRENTLY
BEING STEERED STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
CENTERED TO ITS NORTHEAST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
280/13 KT. HILDA IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON DAYS 3 AND 4 WITH A FURTHER
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS WILL OCCUR AS HILDA REACHES AND THEN
ROUNDS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE...AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
A DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER LOW ALOFT NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A RELATIVELY WEAK HILDA
IS FORECAST TO MAKE A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM THAT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS...CLOSELY FOLLOWS A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE IN
THE EARLIER PERIODS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS IN THE
LATER PERIODS WHEN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BEGINS TO INCREASE
DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN MODEL INTENSITIES.

A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND THE
HURRICANE TRAVERSES SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER. AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS
HILDA WILL ENCOUNTER STEADILY INCREASING SHEAR AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WATER TEMPERATURES AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE. ONCE HILDA
MOVES NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...IT/S CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
COMPROMISED AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING NORTH
OF HAWAII. SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES SHEAR VALUES NEAR 20 KT MONDAY
MORNING WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO OVER 50 KT BY EARLY THURSDAY...AND
FORECASTS DISSIPATION AT THAT TIME. THUS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO
COMMENCE THEREAFTER...AND RAPID WEAKENING ANTICIPATED IN THE LATTER
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS AND THE IVCN CONSENSUS...BUT IS LESS AGGRESSIVE
IN FORECAST WEAKENING THAN SHIPS GUIDANCE ON DAY 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 13.6N 142.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 14.2N 143.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 15.0N 145.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 16.0N 147.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 16.9N 148.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 18.7N 150.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 20.0N 152.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 21.0N 153.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[Yellow Evan]

ADT catching up:

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 13:31:39 N Lon : 142:03:07 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 967.0mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.8 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 9 km

Center Temp : -18.0C Cloud Region Temp : -71.6C

Scene Type : EYE



I'd say it's around 110 knts.

[Ntxw]

Eye continues to warm

[Yellow Evan]

Recon not pushed forward.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE HILDA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 78
A. 10/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0110E HILDA
C. 10/0200Z
D. 16.5N 148.3W
E. 10/0415Z TO 10/0715Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES.