Texas Summer-2015

[JDawg512]

I am going to channel my inner Porta.....

Second. Worst. Summer. Ever.

Really? We had our first 100 a little over a week ago and abundant rain in June and this summer is second only to 2011 in severity? I'm inclined to disagree...

It has been the typical Texas summer so far. Not even the likes of 2009, 2010, 2012 etc no less 2011. I think what makes it FEEL so horrible is the boring prolonged stretch of 3-4 weeks. Heat is normal, but we haven't had any thunderstorm days to break it up. This weekend will be the highlight of summer 2015. After that seasonal changes are underway as we begin to step down and hopefully into a prolonged wet period next few months.

Normally I would be inclined to agree with you but considering the shear amount of rainfall that fell in May and June and the amount of land area that it fell across, this persistent high pressure should not have been able to become this strong and last this long. I don't think it would have been able to so if it was 30 years ago. To see saturated soils across huge swaths of the state completely dissappear in only 40 days indicates that the evaporation rate has increased considerably. I know that the subject of climate change is generally not spoken of on this thread but IMO there is no doubt there is something more than your typical dry summer Niño going on. I'm being reminded that we are entering uncharted territory and we can't really look on historical data and expect a similar outcome and the it will become more of the case in the future.

I really do hope that a shift is indeed on the horizon at the end of August but other than that possible front in the area the middle of next week, it looks to be short lived.

Ntxw do you see any consistency with the models or is it a fairly recent development that shows that a wet pattern is setting up in a couple of weeks?

[weatherdude1108]

[/quote]

It has been the typical Texas summer so far. Not even the likes of 2009, 2010, 2012 etc no less 2011. I think what makes it FEEL so horrible is the boring prolonged stretch of 3-4 weeks. Heat is normal, but we haven't had any thunderstorm days to break it up. This weekend will be the highlight of summer 2015. After that seasonal changes are underway as we begin to step down and hopefully into a prolonged wet period next few months.[/quote]

Normally I would be inclined to agree with you but considering the shear amount of rainfall that fell in May and June and the amount of land area that it fell across, this persistent high pressure should not have been able to become this strong and last this long. I don't think it would have been able to so if it was 30 years ago. To see saturated soils across huge swaths of the state completely dissappear in only 40 days indicates that the evaporation rate has increased considerably. I know that the subject of climate change is generally not spoken of on this thread but IMO there is no doubt there is something more than your typical dry summer Niño going on. I'm being reminded that we are entering uncharted territory and we can't really look on historical data and expect a similar outcome and the it will become more of the case in the future.

I really do hope that a shift is indeed on the horizon at the end of August but other than that possible front in the area the middle of next week, it looks to be short lived.

Ntxw do you see any consistency with the models or is it a fairly recent development that shows that a wet pattern is setting up in a couple of weeks?[/quote]

I have had those same thoughts JDawg512 brought up. The vast square miles of saturated soils from this past Spring should not have evaporated so fast IMO. Could be higher evaporation rates from climate change, more urbanization, or a combination of both(?). Kind of bewildering.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw do you see any consistency with the models or is it a fairly recent development that shows that a wet pattern is setting up in a couple of weeks?

The signal is pretty good, from different methods and models.

To be fair a similar heat streak happened in 1957 after a very wet spring. That was quite some time ago and many areas saw much more 100+ readings than during this event. I don't want to dive too deep into climate because frankly I am unable to differentiate truly what is induced and what is natural variability. But it is not unprecedented, that was also during a strong El Nino and very wet spring.

[opticsguy]

I'm also surprised with the heat considering such a cool spring. Normally (in my observations) 100+ weather comes along with dewpoints in the low 60s/upper 50's in the afternoon. This year, because of the moisture in the soil and vegetation, the dewpoints are around 70.

On Thursday I flew my little plane from Green Bay down to Addison. I've done this trip every year for the last decade. I was shocked at how green Oklahoma and SW Missouri looked this time of year. All that water is making for some mean Heat Indices there.

Over Muskogee the air was 70F at 7500 feet above sea level.

[lukem]

Ntxw do you see any consistency with the models or is it a fairly recent development that shows that a wet pattern is setting up in a couple of weeks?

The signal is pretty good, from different methods and models.

To be fair a similar heat streak happened in 1957 after a very wet spring. That was quite some time ago and many areas saw much more 100+ readings than during this event. I don't want to dive too deep into climate because frankly I am unable to differentiate truly what is induced and what is natural variability. But it is not unprecedented, that was also during a strong El Nino and very wet spring.

In fact, it would have been unusual if this had not happened. In late June, there were many warnings on this tread that we were about to enter a prolonged period of triple digit heat with no rain. This has usually been the case with past strong Ninos (including 57), but I think many of us just refused to believe it.

[Tireman4]

That was just my emotions getting the better of me. Forgive me all. I am a cool/cold weather person. Temperatures over 100 make me queasy. A week of it makes me stir crazy. Lol

[Ntxw]

That was just my emotions getting the better of me. Forgive me all. I am a cool/cold weather person. Temperatures over 100 make me queasy. A week of it makes me stir crazy. Lol

Our time is coming yes...the fall equinox is about 6 weeks away. The sun will leave the Arctic, crisp air will make it's way south...live on Tireman4 live on!

[aggiecutter]

Pattern change is on the way:

[weatherdude1108]

That was just my emotions getting the better of me. Forgive me all. I am a cool/cold weather person. Temperatures over 100 make me queasy. A week of it makes me stir crazy. Lol

Our time is coming yes...the fall equinox is about 6 weeks away. The sun will leave the Arctic, crisp air will make it's way south...live on Tireman4 live on!

I feel ya Tireman4! I get stir crazy and complain after a week of 100s and no rain. My apologies too. We'll have our time like Ntxw mentioned.

[Ntxw]

I feel ya Tireman4! I get stir crazy and complain after a week of 100s and no rain. My apologies too. We'll have our time like Ntxw mentioned.

We endured 7 straight years of drought and below annual rainfall. We can do this, it could be worse, always think back at where it was and could be.

It is always worst elsewhere...124 in Basrah, Iraq just disgusting

I am very interested in this winter. It has been a good 17 years since we have experienced a solid conventional El Nino winter. Not much to go by!

In addition to the NW flow/backdoor fronts advertised by the euro it also has some kind of TUTT low or upper level low backtracking from the northern gulf towards Texas.

[aggiecutter]

I feel ya Tireman4! I get stir crazy and complain after a week of 100s and no rain. My apologies too. We'll have our time like Ntxw mentioned.

In addition to the NW flow/backdoor fronts advertised by the euro it also has some kind of TUTT low or upper level low backtracking from the northern gulf towards Texas.

[weatherdude1108]

I feel ya Tireman4! I get stir crazy and complain after a week of 100s and no rain. My apologies too. We'll have our time like Ntxw mentioned.

We endured 7 straight years of drought and below annual rainfall. We can do this, it could be worse, always think back at where it was and could be.

It is always worst elsewhere...124 in Basrah, Iraq just disgusting

I am very interested in this winter. It has been a good 17 years since we have experienced a solid conventional El Nino winter. Not much to go by!

In addition to the NW flow/backdoor fronts advertised by the euro it also has some kind of TUTT low or upper level low backtracking from the northern gulf towards Texas.

Very true. Could be worse (2011). What did people do here before air conditioning?

Thank you for all your input Ntxw. I always appreciate your analytical thoughts on the weather.

[wxman57]

The 12Z GFS continues to indicate a major pattern change after the 15th. Upper low builds along the central Gulf Coast and shifts west to Texas by the 18th-20th. Ridge in the east toward the end of the run with deep Gulf flow into TX. Another week of dry weather to go then I think we'll see a change. But, before then, we will experience the hottest week of 2015 over the next 7 days.

[Brent]

I am very interested in this winter.

You and me both!

I'm just ready to get past this heat wave(which increasingly I think will be the worst one of the summer)

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Just saw the GFS raw output. Dont even want to give the heat miser credit by posting it!

[Ntxw]

Yep hottest days of the year next few. GFS was a little crazy a few days with the 110+ which usually requires a very hot summer to achieve (only a few summers have them). 100-103 for IAH and 104-106 for DFW is reasonable.

Is it fall yet?

[aggiecutter]

Heatwave, going-going-gone:

[JDawg512]

Ntxw do you see any consistency with the models or is it a fairly recent development that shows that a wet pattern is setting up in a couple of weeks?

The signal is pretty good, from different methods and models.

To be fair a similar heat streak happened in 1957 after a very wet spring. That was quite some time ago and many areas saw much more 100+ readings than during this event. I don't want to dive too deep into climate because frankly I am unable to differentiate truly what is induced and what is natural variability. But it is not unprecedented, that was also during a strong El Nino and very wet spring.

Yes but to also be fair, the amount of rain that fell in 1957 was not in the same league or fell as much over such a large land area as what we saw this year. I also think back to 2007 when we had a wet early to mid summer but again even then the area coverage was not the same as this year. We saw a couple of 100 degree days but not many.

I can understand if the rains were more scattered with pockets getting a lot of rain and others just getting modest amounts but we saw 2/3rds of Texas as well as Oklahoma get inundated with wide spread 20 to 30 inch amounts. We had what many were referring to as a brown ocean phenomenon and yet in just 4 to 5 weeks of dry weather, that ground moisture is basically gone with the return of soil drought conditions with parts of northeast Texas moving into moderate drought. That's a huge amount of evaporation. Sure the plants and trees took a good amount of that water as well but we have talked about this before just a few weeks ago if you go back and read over at the start of the thread. Soil moisture combined with the cooling effect of all the greenery should have stunted this high. I'm not saying that it wasn't going to get to 100 although I'll point out that there was a lot of talk that it may not or if it did it would be just a couple of days. Obviously this has caught everyone off guard a bit.

I'm friends with a head meteorologist that works at one of Austin's news stations and I can tell you he did not think this summer would turn out the way it has back in June. Sure even in cooler summers there are times when it will still get very hot but they are typically short lived. That hasn't been the case this time around.


I'm just considering all these points when I say there's more going on than a strong Niño summer but having said that I'm glad things are looking up.

Besides the models over the past 3 nights the frogs and toads around my pond in the back yard have started their mating calls. They have been quiet since the start of July. They are a pretty good indication the weather pattern is about to change as they start making noise right before an increase of moisture or rain moving in.

[Brent]

I'm surprised 32 days rain free is the longest streak since 2000 at DFW... I mean this is my first summer here but I always figured this wasn't unusual for summer, especially with 2011 more recent.

[Ntxw]

I can understand if the rains were more scattered with pockets getting a lot of rain and others just getting modest amounts but we saw 2/3rds of Texas as well as Oklahoma get inundated with wide spread 20 to 30 inch amounts. We had what many were referring to as a brown ocean phenomenon and yet in just 4 to 5 weeks of dry weather, that ground moisture is basically gone with the return of soil drought conditions with parts of northeast Texas moving into moderate drought. That's a huge amount of evaporation. Sure the plants and trees took a good amount of that water as well but we have talked about this before just a few weeks ago if you go back and read over at the start of the thread. Soil moisture combined with the cooling effect of all the greenery should have stunted this high. I'm not saying that it wasn't going to get to 100 although I'll point out that there was a lot of talk that it may not or if it did it would be just a couple of days. Obviously this has caught everyone off guard a bit.

1957 was actually quite similar to this year, expanse wise also. One could argue it was even wetter then during April/May than this year. It is possible this heat wave was helped by background warming, but it's hard to prove it. If it's happened before then it can happen again, unless we can decipher that something has not happened in the past like this then I'd be more comfortable saying it was the cause. Regardless 1957's background state was similar to this year but it produced a more impressive heat wave. This heat ridge has been aided by the western drought. Every time it waned early in the summer it was allowed to intensify as it moved westward. Then when it bulged east it gradually weakened but remained persistent.

None of the stations across the state have recorded any kind of records throughout all this nor has it been that much above normal, just persistent and definitely dry for the past 4-6 weeks.





Our weather changes the ridge is moving back west and intensifying next week. But signs are looks like it's getting beaten down for good even there as seasonal changes takes place soon, per euro.