2015 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Might as well keep recon here in Hawaii.

GFS doesn't have it. But again, it initially didn't have 08E and Guillermo.

GFs is having genesis issue. ECMWF shows it, but does not have it threatening Hawaii.

At this point, a few recon planes should always be on Hawaii. They get more threats these days than anywhere in the USA it seems aside from Guam.

[TheStormExpert]

IMO it seems to me that models have been kind of lost so far this season, or is it just me?

[TheStormExpert]

Might as well keep recon here in Hawaii.

GFS doesn't have it. But again, it initially didn't have 08E and Guillermo.

GFs is having genesis issue. ECMWF shows it, but does not have it threatening Hawaii.

At this point, a few recon planes should always be on Hawaii. They get more threats these days than anywhere in the USA it seems aside from Guam.

Yeah Hawaii seems to be the only U.S. state that recieves threats these days it seems. Next year could be a different story though.

[Yellow Evan]

IMO it seems to me that models have been kind of lost so far this season, or is it just me?

Same could be said last year or the year before. GFS isn't 100% lost and has improved with the new version but erratic. Lots of it may stem from not forecasting the MJO properly.

[Kingarabian]

Might as well keep recon here in Hawaii.

GFS doesn't have it. But again, it initially didn't have 08E and Guillermo.

GFs is having genesis issue. ECMWF shows it, but does not have it threatening Hawaii.

At this point, a few recon planes should always be on Hawaii. They get more threats these days than anywhere in the USA it seems aside from Guam.

Euro shows it moving north, getting blocked and moving west.

Previous runs it showed it on a track missing Hawaii from the south.

[Yellow Evan]

Might as well keep recon here in Hawaii.

GFS doesn't have it. But again, it initially didn't have 08E and Guillermo.

GFs is having genesis issue. ECMWF shows it, but does not have it threatening Hawaii.

At this point, a few recon planes should always be on Hawaii. They get more threats these days than anywhere in the USA it seems aside from Guam.

Euro shows it moving north, getting blocked and moving west.

Previous runs it showed it on a track missing Hawaii from the south.

GFS ensembles safely re-curve this out to sea.

[Yellow Evan]

Now 92E.

[Yellow Evan]

A few GFS runs ago

16 days out of course

[Kingarabian]

Euro and others show the EPAC swinging hard at Hawaii in the next few weeks. And it's only August.

[Yellow Evan]

Euro and others show the EPAC swinging hard at Hawaii in the next few weeks. And it's only August.

Well the long-range ensembles seem to have the EPAC entering a re-curving pattern in a few weeks and keeps a lot of storms north of Hawaii. Right now, Hawaii seems protected by the Great Hawaiin Shear, but all we need is the right timing.

[Kingarabian]

Euro and others show the EPAC swinging hard at Hawaii in the next few weeks. And it's only August.

Well the long-range ensembles seem to have the EPAC entering a re-curving pattern in a few weeks and keeps a lot of storms north of Hawaii. Right now, Hawaii seems protected by the Great Hawaiin Shear, but all we need is the right timing.

I hope so.

It's just that the Euro got 08E and Guillermo right and usually does a better job with storms affecting Hawaii.

The GIV data should also help the models in dealing with 92E too, right?

[Yellow Evan]

Euro and others show the EPAC swinging hard at Hawaii in the next few weeks. And it's only August.

Well the long-range ensembles seem to have the EPAC entering a re-curving pattern in a few weeks and keeps a lot of storms north of Hawaii. Right now, Hawaii seems protected by the Great Hawaiin Shear, but all we need is the right timing.

I hope so.

It's just that the Euro got 08E and Guillermo right and usually does a better job with storms affecting Hawaii.

The GIV data should also help the models in dealing with 92E too, right?

Too far out to have any affect.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has a long range development close to Mexican coast but ECMWF doesn't have anything.

[Yellow Evan]

That's because the ECMWF doesn't go out on any site that I know of past 10 days.

[Yellow Evan]

On another note, the CFS runs have been taking the EPAC to the Greeks still and show a total of 15 storms forming the next eight weeks.

No way this happens, but it gave me a good laugh.

[CaliforniaResident]

On another note, the CFS runs have been taking the EPAC to the Greeks still and show a total of 15 storms forming the next eight weeks.

No way this happens, but it gave me a good laugh.

With the possible strongest El Nino in recorded history at our heels, positive PDO, and record SST gradient off the Pacific coast, we could be heading into uncharted territory so I wouldn't dismiss their predictions yet. We won't know until the time passes.

[Yellow Evan]

On another note, the CFS runs have been taking the EPAC to the Greeks still and show a total of 15 storms forming the next eight weeks.

No way this happens, but it gave me a good laugh.

With the possible strongest El Nino in recorded history at our heels, positive PDO, and record SST gradient off the Pacific coast, we could be heading into uncharted territory so I wouldn't dismiss their predictions yet. We won't know until the time passes.

It's not gonna happen. We don't have the CCKW support for massive TC outbreaks, and there's too much dry air.

[Yellow Evan]

A tropical wave located about 1100 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large
area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
this system during the next several days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

A tropical wave located more than 1000 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large
area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
this disturbance during the next several days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Disorganized cloudiness and showers located more than 1000 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent