WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Worst Dvorak fix ever.

TPPN10 PGTW 030623

A. TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR)

B. 03/0532Z

C. 16.90N

D. 142.98E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. NOT A CLEAR CUT EYE FIX,
AS THE CENTER IS BECOMING CLOUD FILLED. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY
DG, WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT
YIELD A 5.0. DBO PT, AS DT IS NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[talkon]

Agreed. It's easily T6.5.


TY 1513 (SOUDELOR)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 3 August 2015

<Analyses at 03/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N16°55'(16.9°)
E143°00'(143.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 03/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°30'(17.5°)
E140°50'(140.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 04/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°00'(18.0°)
E138°40'(138.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 05/06 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N19°05'(19.1°)
E134°40'(134.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 06/06 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N20°35'(20.6°)
E130°55'(130.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

[Yellow Evan]

Worst Dvorak fix ever.

TPPN10 PGTW 030623

A. TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR)

B. 03/0532Z

C. 16.90N

D. 142.98E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE Not really ragged/ANMTN. NOT A CLEAR CUT EYE FIX,
AS THE CENTER IS BECOMING CLOUD FILLED. Appears to be finishing an ERC LG EYE DG SURROUNDED BY
DG uhh W, WITH NO EYE .5 probs ADJUSTMENT FOR W YIELDS A DT OF 4.5 6.5. MET Rapid development curve would be 5.5 MET since DT 24 hours ago was 4.0 AFAIK AND PT
YIELD A 5.0 PT=6.0 it appesrs. DBO PT, AS DT IS NOT CLEAR CUT. IMO quite clear for an ERC storm

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

Broke down where the JTWC went wrong above in blue. IF the CMG can thicken, this is an easy T7.0.



Now talk about pretty. This is why I love tracking tropical cyclones.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  03 AUG 2015    Time : 063000 UTC
      Lat :   17:10:59 N     Lon :  142:44:21 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.3 / 957.8mb/ 97.2kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                5.3     6.2     6.2

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

 Center Temp : -44.2C    Cloud Region Temp : -78.1C

 Scene Type : EYE

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WHAT THE HELL? WOAH. I doubt this is a category 3 already, maybe a mid Cat 4

[mrbagyo]

Now at 6.5 per KNES
I cant wait for tomorrow's first visible...
TXPQ21 KNES 030911
TCSWNP

A. 13W (SOUDELOR)

B. 03/0832Z

C. 17.2N

D. 142.4E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=6.5 BASED ON CMG RING WITH OW EYE. PT=6.5. MET=6.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Early best track

13W SOUDELOR 150803 1200 17.5N 142.0E WPAC 125 929

[xtyphooncyclonex]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 AUG 2015 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 17:17:18 N Lon : 142:14:52 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 940.6mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.2 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : -13.0C Cloud Region Temp : -80.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 115km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.5 degrees

[talkon]

TPPN10 PGTW 030933

A. TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR)

B. 03/0832Z

C. 17.14N

D. 142.50E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. PT YIELDS A 6.0, WHILE MET YIELDS A 5.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[euro6208]

wow...

[euro6208]

889mb!

[euro6208]

Saipan in 'state of disaster' after Typhoon Soudelor direct hit

http://www.guampdn.com/story/news/2015/08/03/fema-cnmi-state-disaster-after-typhoon-soudelor-direct-hit/31042799/

This is incredible...

Buoy near Tanapag measured 32 feet...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 AUG 2015 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 17:24:54 N Lon : 141:55:08 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 936.2mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.5 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +0.6C Cloud Region Temp : -81.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 115km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.7 degrees

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This storm without doubt is a Super Typhoon and has been for awhile.

Remember, the winds usually lag with satellite appearance. I guess 125 kts is just an ample wind speed

[euro6208]

This storm without doubt is a Super Typhoon and has been for awhile.

Yup.

Without recon, JTWC is playing catchup especially with strong typhoons...Dvorak is a mess...

[euro6208]

06Z GFS brings this down to 892 mb, awfully close to Taiwan's Capital Taipei and Okinawa and slams it into China...

Edited: It's 882mb not 892mb!

[euro6208]

00Z EURO slams it into Taiwan, 908 mb...

[Ntxw]

Another WPAC monster, no doubt it is a STY and on it's way to cat 5 if it isn't already. Going to rack up another 30-50 ACE points easily.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If JT's forecast verifies, maybe 40-70 units

[euro6208]