Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[NCSTORMMAN]

Reminder folks the NHC are the experts and we are but mere mortals lol.

[SouthDadeFish]

The steering flow is currently weak and mesoscale processes appear to be "tugging" any low-level center towards the SW. However, by tomorrow the steering flow appears it will be a bit stronger and a upper level trough will pull the disturbance out towards the NE.

[crownweather]

Taking a look at radar and factoring in surface obs & buoy reports, I have circled where about a low level circulation likely is. I agree with everyone else that it is indeed drifting S-SSE and don't see any mechanism to turn it northeastward immediately. Kind of confused with the TWO as it certainly looks like a TD to me and I'd even argue a minimal TS.

[Dean4Storms]

The steering flow is currently weak and mesoscale processes appear to be "tugging" any low-level center towards the SW. However, by tomorrow the steering flow appears it will be a bit stronger and a upper level trough will pull the disturbance out towards the NE.

True enough and we can't really see the surface low under the cloud deck now either. All we see on radar and satellite is mid and upper level circulations. Thar surface Low might just appear up near Lake City by the AM visible look as a naked swirl.

[northjaxpro]

The upper level wind flow analysis from University of Wisconsin. Note the flow over the Low currently. This gets us to see why it is currently on a slow southward drift. The Low is on the extreme eastern outer edge of the Upper High ridge centered over West -central TX, with the flow around that high flowing south-southeastward currently. Also, it almost looks as if the trough is bypassing the Low. look at the trough axis. it is looking as if it is lifting out to me.

[NCSTORMMAN]

I think the low will redevelop or move to the southwest some overnight.

[SouthDadeFish]

Northjaxpro, that is not the correct steering flow for a weak disturbance. That is the steering flow for a major hurricane. Here is the correct steering flow, with a weakness toward the NE evident:

[Hammy]

I don't see this moving NE as the NHC says.

[northjaxpro]

Ahh, OK. I pulled the wrong map. Sorry for that error folks. Thanks SouthDade for catching that.

[MGC]

this was just a naked swirl this morning while over land. Convection has really taken off this afternoon. Key here will be persistence. If the convection continues and becomes more organized than we might have something here. Hopefully it dies out or moves over land real quick.....MGC

[SouthDadeFish]

Ahh, OK. I pulled the wrong map. Sorry for that error folks. Thanks SouthDade for catching that.

No worries, just wanted to clarify things.

[Dean4Storms]

The upper level wind flow analysis from University of Wisconsin. Note the flow over the Low currently. This gets us to see why it is currently on a slow southward drift. The Low is on the extreme eastern outer edge of the Upper High ridge centered over West -central TX, with the flow around that high flowing south-southeastward currently. Also, it almost looks as if the trough is bypassing the Low. look at the trough axis. it is looking as if it is lifting out to me.

Yea, as Southdade pointed out wrong map but it does indicate some shear and dry air that looks to be flowing into it at 500mb.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I accidently pulled the wrong map in error, but as you pointed out, the map I posted at 500 mb still shws the environment present over the system.

[JonathanBelles]

There's a pretty clear front aligned from St. Marks, FL to between Moultrie and Albany, GA. This is not quite tropical.

[northjaxpro]

Hey Jonathan. Great to have you in here this evening tracking this Low pressure disturbance. I see we now have this designated as 95L, so I will move on to that thread.

[Kingarabian]

NRL has it at as Invest 95L.

[cycloneye]

Thread is locked because=Is Invest 95L