Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[bamajammer4eva]

Winds could be strong enough for TD in convection to the south

[Hammy]

Looking much better organized this afternoon, I'm honestly surprised it managed to organize given how close to land it is. Its pretty doubtful that it'll ever get classified, it doesn't meet the 50 mph criteria the NHC seems to be using this season and they've been fairly hesitant to upgrade systems this close to land in recent years as well especially without TS winds or reconnaissance.

[northjaxpro]

Wide radar view. This is looking like an organizing tropical cyclone to me! Also, look at that large convective band extending down through the peninsula. Hope that is helping relieve the drought there in portions of South florida.

[TheStormExpert]

Looking much better organized this afternoon, I'm honestly surprised it managed to organize given how close to land it is. Its pretty doubtful that it'll ever get classified, it doesn't meet the 50 mph criteria the NHC seems to be using this season and they've been fairly hesitant to upgrade systems this close to land in recent years as well especially without TS winds or reconnaissance.

Why must it be a 50mph TS to be classified?

[TheStormExpert]

I will be REALLY shocked if they do not up the development chances at least at the 8pm TWO.

[tropicwatch]

I will be REALLY shocked if they do not up the development chances at least at the 8pm TWO.

Or possibly give it a TD status.

[SunnyThoughts]

You guys stay safe over that way. Even if it isn't classified, the rain/flooding is no joke for sure. Seems at the very least there should be some sort of special marine statement for boaters along the coast.

[Hammy]

Looking much better organized this afternoon, I'm honestly surprised it managed to organize given how close to land it is. Its pretty doubtful that it'll ever get classified, it doesn't meet the 50 mph criteria the NHC seems to be using this season and they've been fairly hesitant to upgrade systems this close to land in recent years as well especially without TS winds or reconnaissance.

Why must it be a 50mph TS to be classified?

It just seems to be what they're doing this season, a few people even pointed it out with Claudette not getting upgraded until that point.

[NDG]

I placed the L where the COC was located at the time of the vis satellite pix.

[northjaxpro]

Low still appears on its southward drift this hour. If the Low continues to drift south the next several hours, that would place the circulation center about due west of the mouth of the Suwannee River. Right now it is about 20 miles due west of Horseshoe Beach looking at the latest radar frame. Remember, it is only moving at 2 to 2.5 mph currently. crawling lol..

[TheStormExpert]

Is it me or does it look to be less definable on radar?

[Stormcenter]

I still find the large complex SW of our low interesting today.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[Nimbus]

The surface pressure is dropping and the winds are picking up at the Tampa bay buoy.
25 - knot winds fairly far from the circulation center.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036

[Stormcenter]

I agree

Is it me or does it look to be less definable on radar?

[Hammy]

It just occurred to me, but looping the one-hour totals on NWS radar can be used to get a general idea of the center location.

[Dean4Storms]

I agree

Is it me or does it look to be less definable on radar?

Looks that way because Convection has fired over the center, you don't see the little bands spiraling around a hole so easily now.

[Dean4Storms]

I have to question the models forecast with this Low for now. The convection is drawing it Southward and I don't think the models saw that coming. If it deepens this evening the track could change.

[tropicwatch]

Look at the difference in water levels at Paradise Point on the Crystal River.

[JKingTampa]

New bands are still firing, looks like at TD to me.

[hurricanekid416]

So how much time does it have on water