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caneman wrote:Some areas here have picked up 12 inches of rain already. They are forecasting another 3 to 6 inches. Ive.lived here 35 years and never remember anything like it. If you get a chance check some of the news sites here f for the tampa bay area to see photos. I hate El Nino for us it means copious rains and cold winters.
TheStormExpert wrote:caneman wrote:Some areas here have picked up 12 inches of rain already. They are forecasting another 3 to 6 inches. Ive.lived here 35 years and never remember anything like it. If you get a chance check some of the news sites here f for the tampa bay area to see photos. I hate El Nino for us it means copious rains and cold winters.
Typically El Niños do not have as much control over the weather here in Florida during the summer as they do during the winter.
But yeah, unfortunately expect a wetter and at least cooler than normal winter here in Florida.
NDG wrote:I personally do not think anything will come out of that convection west of Tampa, surface trough is now way north of it, nothing but westerly winds underneath the weak mid level vorticity.
Models show surface high pressure ridge moving back in before the next trough comes down next weekend. Upper level northerly winds are forecasted to increase once again across the eastern GOM.
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Was noticing that complex earlier and thought it might be worth monitoring. Though this pesky relentless shear just won't ease up one bit!
Wonder if this will be the case here and off the SE U.S. Coast the rest of the season, or will we finally become more favorable in these regions as time goes on?
Dean4Storms wrote:TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Was noticing that complex earlier and thought it might be worth monitoring. Though this pesky relentless shear just won't ease up one bit!
Wonder if this will be the case here and off the SE U.S. Coast the rest of the season, or will we finally become more favorable in these regions as time goes on?
From the indications I've seen with the CFSv2 it looks like a warmer late August and Sept. for much of the Eastern Half of the USA, which would lead me to believe that Ridging is the dominating upper level pressure pattern instead of all this repetitive Troughing. If so, think we'd have less shear along the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf, might be bad timing with the Wave Train becoming more active. We'll see!
Dean4Storms wrote:TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Was noticing that complex earlier and thought it might be worth monitoring. Though this pesky relentless shear just won't ease up one bit!
Wonder if this will be the case here and off the SE U.S. Coast the rest of the season, or will we finally become more favorable in these regions as time goes on?
From the indications I've seen with the CFSv2 it looks like a warmer late August and Sept. for much of the Eastern Half of the USA, which would lead me to believe that Ridging is the dominating upper level pressure pattern instead of all this repetitive Troughing. If so, think we'd have less shear along the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf, might be bad timing with the Wave Train becoming more active. We'll see!
Dean4Storms wrote:Yea, that little low level swirl and low pressure look separated from the Convection further WSW down around 27.5N and 87W. That area is getting my attention this morning as the convection continues to refire over the same area. Wouldn't surprise me to see another Low form along that trough with Convection this robust if it continues today!
wxman57 wrote:Weak low-level swirl has moved inland into the eastern FL panhandle. Pressures are starting to rise across the NE Gulf. No evidence of any rotation in offshore obs. Development chances remain near zero.
