Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[NDG]

Radar loop out of Tallahassee, make sure you speed up the loop.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displ ... duration=3

[cycloneye]

Interesting tweet by Levi.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 8m8 minutes ago
System in NE gulf might end up closer to a TD than one might have expected before shifting inland.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, there is clearly a decent rotation right at the Bend area south of Tallahassee in the Apalachee Bay region NDG. The Low Pressure is still broad though. That Low is just meandering, almost stationary .

[TheStormExpert]

Even down here in Southeast Florida(Palm Beach Gardens) it seems rather tropical out with off and on showers since earlier this afternoon. There is even a decently nice breeze.

It's in the air!

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting tweet by Levi.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 8m8 minutes ago
System in NE gulf might end up closer to a TD than one might have expected before shifting inland.

When will the NHC bite?

[northjaxpro]

As indicated earlier today, we have two distinctive areas of interest in the NE GOM. The Low Pressure area near the Big Bend coast just south of Tallahassee, and the apparent development of another wave of Low Pressure to the south/southeast of the MS River Delta area.

I have to agree with NDG in that the Low near the Big Bend region is definitely looking the best it has all day long with very impressive convective tops and motion appears stationary. Interesting to see Cowan thinking that something out of either of these areas may form into a TD before coming ashore in the short term.

[Stormcenter]

Area southeast of the MS. Delta looking more interesting. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[TheStormExpert]

Hmm... The 8pm TWO is taking much longer than usual to come out.

[TheStormExpert]

As indicated earlier today, we have two distinctive areas of interest in the NE GOM. The Low Pressure area near the Big Bend coast just south of Tallahassee, and the apparent development of another wave of Low Pressure to the south/southeast of the MS River Delta area.

I have to agree with NDG in that the Low near the Big Bend region is definitely looking the best it has all day long with very impressive convective tops and motion appears stationary. Interesting to see Cowan thinking that something out of either of these areas may form into a TD before coming ashore in the short term.

What are the odds of a minimal TS in your opinion? Just curious.

[northjaxpro]

That is a good question. Shear reduced considerably today as we can all see with these two areas of interest I have been following all day. Although the Low Pressure area near the Big Bend of Florida currently looks the best, it's proximity to land will hinder any further development chances, unless it drifts and stalls in Apalachee Bay before coming ashore.

I think the developing Low pressure wave south/southeast of the MS River Delta region has the best potential to develop in my view. That disturbed area is farther back in a more conducive area where shear is even lighter. Convection is still building over this particular area and if this trend continues, all attention I think should focus to that area.

[USTropics]

8PM TWD from NHC is out:

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE US
SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
30N85W AND STATIONARY FRONT FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF...TO A DISSIPATING 1013 MB LOW NEAR 28N94W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE 1013 MB LOW TO NEAR THE TX/MEXICO BORDER NEAR
26N97W. THE COMBINATION OF FORCING FROM THE EASTERNMOST LOW AND
THE FRONT...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN
THE FL W COAST AND 91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. E TO NE WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE FRONTS. SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE
WITHIN 125 NM S OF THE FRONTS. SE TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE
S OF 24 N ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE SURFACE LOWS
WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Well NHC says no storm so no storm will form.

[northjaxpro]

Still, we have two Low Pressure areas at the current time. Both are pulsating convection in a slightly better enviroment in which we have not seen all week. Definitely need to keep monitoring until we see trends indicating that these Low Pressure areas are dissipating.

[psyclone]

Well even absent development we're floating yet again in the Tampa Bay area.

[gatorcane]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[NDG]

I just don't anything south of the MS River delta, nothing but westerly winds at the surface in this area with pressures not as low as closer to FL, broad surface circulation is in the NE GOM. There still some windshear in the area, convection keeps being pushed to the south.

Saved radar loop:

[gatorcane]

The problem for this area continues to be the shear. Check out the map below. You have an upper-level low just east of the Bahamas and an upper-high over the NW Gulf and you get a strong north wind gradient between the two (20K to 30K winds in the upper atmosphere) through the northern Gulf area which should prevent any development.

[Nimbus]

A lot of the times we see convection it is due to the shear causing lift over the warm SST's.
Once the shear ends no more lift and the surface pressures rise.

That is what the NHC thinks is going on so those hot towers that keep blowing up must be just from shear.

There really hasn't been any persistent vorticity evident once the cloud tops get blown off.

[NDG]

SSE of Tallahassee is where the surface vorticity, clearly seen on radar and from surface observations.
0z NAM brings it onshore by tomorrow morning.

[northjaxpro]

1010 mb Low on WPC surface analysis at 4Z analyzed in Apalachee Bay about 40 miles west of Cedar Key.