EPAC: GUILLERMO - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

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 UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.2.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  31 JUL 2015    Time :   170000 UTC
      Lat :   12:18:52 N     Lon :  133:38:26 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.2 / 966.6mb/ 94.8kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                5.2     5.6     5.6

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

 Center Temp :  -7.9C    Cloud Region Temp : -63.3C

 Scene Type : EYE 

[Yellow Evan]

MU shows this having peaked now and this weakens from here on out

still not seeing that much of a Hawaii threat, unless ALL models are dead flat wrong

GFDL and some GFS runs have brought this near the island as a tropical cyclone.

And the GFS run is weird since it weakens it 9 mbar in 6 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

One thing I remember from 1997, there were no Hawaii threats from the east that year. Everything got sheared.

Ironically, some of the greatest threats from the EAST have come during strong la niña years. 1999 had Dora, 2007 had Flossie. Both were very powerful hurricanes that narrowly missed to the south. Not entirely sure why this is the case

Well, 1982 had Iwa from the SW and Daniel and Gilma passed near the islands from the east.

1957 had a system pass near the islands from the east as well. Ditto 1972.

[Yellow Evan]

http://i.imgur.com/gkDLzVH.jpg

Much better. Think this can bomb out now.

[Alyono]

One thing I remember from 1997, there were no Hawaii threats from the east that year. Everything got sheared.

Ironically, some of the greatest threats from the EAST have come during strong la niña years. 1999 had Dora, 2007 had Flossie. Both were very powerful hurricanes that narrowly missed to the south. Not entirely sure why this is the case

Well, 1982 had Iwa from the SW and Daniel and Gilma passed near the islands from the east.

1957 had a system pass near the islands from the east as well. Ditto 1972.

1957 had Dot, but from the south.

Not saying the chances are worse in an el nino. However, for some reason, intense storms threaten from the east in non strong el niño years. I do not have an answer for it

[Yellow Evan]

1957 had Dot, but from the south.

Not saying the chances are worse in an el nino. However, for some reason, intense storms threaten from the east in non strong el niño years. I do not have an answer for it

Dot was 1959, but Nina was 1957.

I wouldn't make any real conclusions. Sample size is small.

[CrazyC83]

Flossie in 2007 was lower in latitude, so it managed to avoid the shear for most of the approach. Storms that stay below 15-16N seem to do better as they track into the eastern part of the CPAC.

[Kingarabian]

Flossie in 2007 was lower in latitude, so it managed to avoid the shear for most of the approach. Storms that stay below 15-16N seem to do better as they track into the eastern part of the CPAC.

Was just about to say this.

Flossie was the last legit hurricane threat to Hawaii before Ana.

GFS changes its mind every run now.

[Yellow Evan]

Flossie in 2007 was lower in latitude, so it managed to avoid the shear for most of the approach. Storms that stay below 15-16N seem to do better as they track into the eastern part of the CPAC.

Was just about to say this.

Flossie was the last legit hurricane threat to Hawaii before Ana.

GFS changes its mind every run now.

Not counting Iselle since that was from the east?

[Kingarabian]

Flossie in 2007 was lower in latitude, so it managed to avoid the shear for most of the approach. Storms that stay below 15-16N seem to do better as they track into the eastern part of the CPAC.

Was just about to say this.

Flossie was the last legit hurricane threat to Hawaii before Ana.

GFS changes its mind every run now.

Not counting Iselle since that was from the east?

Yup although I give it props for making it.

[Yellow Evan]

1957 had Dot, but from the south.

Not saying the chances are worse in an el nino. However, for some reason, intense storms threaten from the east in non strong el niño years. I do not have an answer for it

Dot was 1959, but Nina was 1957.

I wouldn't make any real conclusions. Sample size is small.

Maybe there's some truth. Fabio 88 and Ignacio 85 were both Hawaii threats to the south in La Ninas. Then again Estelle 86 was an El Nino.

[Kingarabian]

EC shifts east and grazes the islands.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 09, 2015073118, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1340W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 1008, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GUILLERMO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,

[Yellow Evan]

Eye is by definition there in BD, so I don't understand this.

TXPZ25 KNES 311825
TCSENP

A. 09E (GUILLERMO)

B. 31/1800Z

C. 12.4N

D. 134.0W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...EYE IS NOT REAL EVIDENT SO DT=4.5 BASED ON 15/10
BANDING. MET=4.5 ON RAPID CURVE AND PAT=4.5, FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

31/1408Z 12.4N 132.6W AMSU

[Yellow Evan]

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             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  31 JUL 2015    Time :   180000 UTC
      Lat :   12:23:18 N     Lon :  133:59:09 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.5 / 960.9mb/102.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                5.5     5.5     5.5

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

 Center Temp : -46.7C    Cloud Region Temp : -66.2C

 Scene Type : EYE 

[Kingarabian]

TAFB is 4.5 too, right?

[Yellow Evan]

TAFB is 4.5 too, right?

If I had to guess, T5.0.

[Yellow Evan]

All of the 12z models have shifted north. GFDL, HWRF, CMC, NOGAPS. Also all show no deepening.

Reason for the northerly shifts is since it is stronger, more likely to feel a weakness.

[Kingarabian]

All of the 12z models have shifted north. GFDL, HWRF, CMC, NOGAPS. Also all show no deepening.

Reason for the northerly shifts is since it is stronger, more likely to feel a weakness.

The problem with that is that the Hawaiian islands are at the consensus average line.

It has to be really shallow at this point to miss from the south, or remain a robust hurricane if it passes to the north, safely. Because the ridge is going to build back and possibly force it really close to one of the islands from the east, if not a direct hit.

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[Kingarabian]

Fresh GMI pass: