Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[Stormcenter]

from what?

I think it's transitioning to subtropical now.

[NCSTORMMAN]

from what?

I think it's transitioning to subtropical now.

It can be argued that it is already tropical. The guy from the weather channel that Jim Cantore retweeted makes a very good argument.

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters take on this area is keep an eye but do no expect development:

Heavy rains in Florida from Gulf of Mexico low
A low pressure system has formed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Florida, and will drift toward the Florida coast today, bringing 1 - 3" of rain with a few high spots of 3 - 5" over Central Florida over the next few days. The Tampa radar is estimating that this low has already brought 6+ inches of rain to the coast near Tampa, Fort Myers, and Naples. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots is keeping this system from developing. While a number of members of the GFS and European ensemble model forecast do show this system developing, none of the operational versions of our reliable models for predicting genesis of tropical cyclones show development over the next five days. We should keep an eye on this system over the next few days, but I am not expecting it to develop.

[Stormcenter]

So I guess if the models say nothing will develop then we should all just move along right? IMO

[psyclone]

sounds like a reasonable statement from Jeff Masters. It's also worth noting that the sensible weather differences between a tropical disturbance/depression or even a weak tropical storm are negligible. The frogs are happy in all 3 scenarios.

[TheAustinMan]

Current SPC mesoanalysis has a closed 1014mb isobar on this low while NOAA surface analysis has a 1012mb isobar (with the low analyzed at 1011mb). The mesoanalysis appears to indicate that the circulation is a bit elongated along the trough axis at this time.

[Sanibel]

You might see them change their tune if it hits the formation threshold and pulls together. In any case I think the season is slowly switching on.

[gatorcane]

How about the UKMET which ultimately is going with a 992MB hurricane impacting the North Carolina by hour 144 from this area which it has crossing Florida and into the Atlantic over the next few days? If that is not eye-popping I don't know what is? Of course the same model was modeling a strong TS into New Orleans a couple of days ago.

[NDG]

Sounding from Tampa this morning says it all, look at the screaming 30-40knot ENE winds at H20 down to H30 over Tampa bay.
This would cause the circulation to get decapitated when growing in height.



Not as strong further north closer to the big bend's coast but still fairly unfavorable.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Mike thinks it has a chance of being an invest at least.

https://www.facebook.com/TropicalUpdate ... 77947367:0

[ronjon]

from what?

I think it's transitioning to subtropical now.

From a true cold core low pressure system.

[psyclone]

I'm about as close to this disturbance as possible without getting wet feet. If it keeps moving n/ne it's going to be on land soon.

[Stormcenter]

is it moving N/NE?

I'm about as close to this disturbance as possible without getting wet feet. If it keeps moving n/ne it's going to be on land soon.

[NCSTORMMAN]

is it moving N/NE?

I'm about as close to this disturbance as possible without getting wet feet. If it keeps moving n/ne it's going to be on land soon.

To my untrained eye it looks like it is moving wsw into the convection. It could be a trick of the radar/IR though.

[gatorcane]

looks like a floater has been moved to this area now:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[NDG]

from what?

I think it's transitioning to subtropical now.

From a true cold core low pressure system.

It was never a cold core low pressure system, the low formed from an old cold front which lost its identity as it came down to central FL becoming nothing more than a trough.

[psyclone]

is it moving N/NE?

I'm about as close to this disturbance as possible without getting wet feet. If it keeps moving n/ne it's going to be on land soon.

The morning discussion from NWS Tampa Bay indicated a NE motion. Maybe it's closer to north. certainly the dominant spin has migrated from offshore the Charlotte harbor area yesterday to west northwest of tampa bay today. that's a pretty big jump when there's limited real estate... a similar move in the next 24 hours would put the low on land somewhere around the Levy/Dixie county coast.

[gatorcane]

Based on the latest 12Z GFS run, low pressure or some kind of trough looks to hand along the northern Gulf coast / NE GOM for 183 hours. So it seems there is some weak steering and whatever is out there may not move out as quickly as some may hope. This could mean lot more rain for the Tampa area and points north.

[NDG]

I keep looking at the HR visible satellite loop and I just do not see this circulation getting better organized, if anything it has become weaker and elongated as the day has gone by, the shear is relentless.

[Nimbus]

is it moving N/NE?

I'm about as close to this disturbance as possible without getting wet feet. If it keeps moving n/ne it's going to be on land soon.

The morning discussion from NWS Tampa Bay indicated a NE motion. Maybe it's closer to north. certainly the dominant spin has migrated from offshore the Charlotte harbor area yesterday to west northwest of tampa bay today. that's a pretty big jump when there's limited real estate... a similar move in the next 24 hours would put the low on land somewhere around the Levy/Dixie county coast.

Scud indicated the surface low has been west of Tampa for several days..

Shear pulled the convection cloud tops south off Venice.

Surface circulation recently moved a little southwest to tuck itself under the deepest convection so its still off Tampa.

The longer it meanders the better chance of becoming trapped under the building ridge rather than following the front northeast.

Its an asymptotic solution.

That may be why JB gave the heads up and the NHC is delaying.