Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[caneman]

It does look to be spinning up.,Much to my disappointment. i thought we were going to finally get a break from the rain here in Tampa, St. Pete and clearwater.

[tropicwatch]

Apparently Jim Cantore is onboard. Part of his latest tweet said, "fire up the plane".

[crimi481]

Buoy readings- Venice, Fl
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=venf1

Wind speed picking up - 18-20 knots. Gusts 22 knots

[rockyman]

It certainly "looks" like a lopsided tropical system. Shear and dry air are really taking a toll, but that's to be expected. I'd be very surprised if the NHC doesn't at least comment on the system soon (even if giving it the "zero percent lemon" treatment).

[crimi481]

SW Florida Radar Loop
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... flanim.gif

[Sanibel]

It has to separate out from the front.


Nice welcome monsoon rains this morning to make up for the rainfall deficit.

[caneman]

Winds have picked up. I was just looking at buoys as well. You can see the rotation on radar will it or won't it? Pressures haven't fallen yet.

[gatorcane]

this actually should be an invest in my opinion, latest loop. No idea what the NHC is thinking not mentioning this area. The circulation appears to be tightening too though there is some moderate shear around and dry air too keeping it in check. It has had "that look" since yesterday. You get the feeling as soon as it can find a window where the shear relaxes, it could be off to the races (might have to wait until getting over into the Atlantic).

[ronjon]

I've heard mention of shear being too high but latest shear analysis shows only 15-20 kts where the COC is located now and it drops to only 10 kts further north. Greatest shear over S FL. Still some dry air over the panhandle which may make it slow to develop but shear not overwhelming at this point.

[TheStormExpert]

Apparently Jim Cantore is onboard. Part of his latest tweet said, "fire up the plane".

Stu Ostro is questioning if it's Tropical in nature.

@StuOstro: Not a #tropical cyclone? http://t.co/c1Hl433UPH

[TheStormExpert]

Couldn't the NHC at least lemon it at 0% for the sake of it like they always use to?

[asd123]

Hasn't this low pressure system been the cause of toasty 700 mb and 500 mb temps of -4 to -5 C in cfla? Even the area forecast discussion says that these temps are highly abnormal.

[Nimbus]

Look like a cold gray morning to you?

[northjaxpro]

I think the system may find slightly better conditions in terms of the shear in the next 24-36 hours as it drifts and meanders very slowly northward towards the Big Bend region. If the Low can stay intact through this time period, at least the potential of a TD could happen by Wednesday.

[asd123]

Hasn't this low pressure system been the cause of toasty 700 mb and 500 mb temps of -4 to -5 C in cfla? Even the area forecast discussion says that these temps are highly abnormal.

Yeah and the Florida panhandle has 500mb temps of -2C! You know something's going on.

[Weatherboy1]

Good morning - Certainly does seem worth mentioning or at least monitoring by the NHC, in my view. These frontal/potentially hybrid (at first) type systems are typical of the earlier part of the season, vs. the Cape Verde-type systems later in August and September. I'm just hoping the rain will let up for a bit so I can get a bike ride in later! LOL

[ronjon]

Bouy 100 miles west of Bayport (28.5N, 84.5W) reporting sustained winds out of the north at 19 kts with gusts to 25 kts and pressure 1013 mb and falling.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Could be the clouds and the way they are moving but it looks like the CoC is drifting south into the heavy convection. Is that true?

[Stormcenter]

Yeah I think it's worth mention. IMO

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... duration=6

[ronjon]

I think it's transitioning to subtropical now.