Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[gatorcane]

Low-level vorticity is also increasing across the Eastern Gulf, off of the SW coast of Florida:

[blp]

Vorticity continues to improve in the Gulf and less elongated. I still think something is going to spin up off Fort Myers area where you see greatest vorticity. The 500mb has greatly improved.

850mb


700mb


500mb


EDIT Gator you beat me to it. We are on the same page.

[gatorcane]

Vorticity continues to improve in the Gulf and less elongated. I still think something is going to spin up off Fort Myers area where you see greatest vorticity. The 500mb has greatly improved.

EDIT Gator you beat me to it. We are on the same page.

We are on the same page.

How can the NHC not mention this area the way it is looking on sat imagery and the persistent convection? I have actually seen designed invests look worse than what this area looks. Curious what they say for the upcoming 8pm EST outlook

[northjaxpro]

I have to think NHC will do a TWO about the Northeast GOM region very shortly Gatorcane. This system seems to be gradually getting its act together, with the main inhibitor currently being the moderate northerly shear. However, just a bit of slackening of the shear may get this Low to tighten up in the next couple days.

[stormlover2013]

Rain maker fellows, stop wishing

[NCSTORMMAN]

Rain maker fellows, stop wishing

Best looking rain maker I have seen in awhile at least if you are saying a non-tropical rain maker. I see some tropical looking spin there but again I repeat I am no weatherman.

[gatorcane]

High tower blowing up off ft Myers / Port Charlotte area. This is a good sign as we are at the diurnal minimum.

[northjaxpro]

Rain maker fellows, stop wishing

Any time you get strong vorticity in the GOM, especially given sea surface temperatures in the mid-upper 80s in the eastern GOM, you pay attention. This is not wishing. This is being sensible to paying attention to a region which in the past couple of days has had model support for Low pressure to form in the NE GOM i.e. CMC... Today, we have had a Low pressure area, albeit broad and weak for the moment, get initialized by the NHC. So, this isn't some one here wishing for anything. Just a weather observer monitoring the situation like most on this forum.

[stormlover2013]

Good tropical rain maker, the ingredients just isn't quite there man, I love watching these storms developed and tracking them but just don't see nothing coming in fruitation

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Rain maker fellows, stop wishing

Any time you get strong vorticity in the GOM, especially given sea surface temperatures in the mid-upper 80s in the eastern GOM, you pay attention. This is not wishing. This is being sensible to paying attention to a region which in the past couple of days has had model support for Low pressure to form in the NE GOM i.e. CMC... Today, we have had a Low pressure area, albeit broad and weak for the moment, get initialized by the NHC. So, this isn't some one here wishing for anyting. Just a weather observer monitoring the situation like most on this forum.

Exactly no one is wishing for a storm I hope the thing dies out but being observant of the situation does not mean you are -removed-.

[northjaxpro]

Good tropical rain maker, the ingredients just isn't quite there man, I love watching these storms developed and tracking them but just don't see nothing coming in fruitation

And fine. That is your opinion and I respect that, Just don't chastise others on here, be it pro mets or credible weather observers by stating that we are "wishing" for something to happen. That is not necessary on this forum.

[stormlover2013]

Usually these things do this during the day time, at night usually dies down, that will be the telling was it just day time heating making the gulf look good we shall see

[stormlover2013]

Oh I'm not man, all I am saying is it doesn't look good for developing, and 95 percent of the pros have said this already.....I would love to see a trop storm come out of this so I can stay up late and track it but I don't think it will happen with this

[NCSTORMMAN]

Usually these things do this during the day time, at night usually dies down, that will be the telling was it just day time heating making the gulf look good we shall see

I agree the thing could be looking good because of heating and tonight will tell the tale. If it is still firing up convection tonight then it is no doubt a storm forming in my untrained opinion. We shall see.

[tolakram]

Reminder, if you make a prediction you need to put the disclaimer on the post. This can be placed in your signature if you so desire.

As suggested above, please be respectful of other members. Let us know your opinion on the storm, not on others opinions. Thanks.

[Alyono]

NHC's outlook... nothing to see. I happen to agree with this one

[crownweather]

No mention on the 8 pm outlook. I suspect NHC wants to see if this persists tonight before mentioning.

[northjaxpro]

No mention on the 8 pm outlook. I suspect NHC wants to see if this persists tonight before mentioning.

Yeah, I agree.

[ronjon]

The models were more bullish on development yesterday. That dry air did a number on convection overnight. The weak low is still attached to the front and this thing would have to sit over the GOM for a few more days to maybe transition to something more tropical. Looks like just a non-tropical rainmaker at this point. BTW, I've recorded over 6 inches of rain since Friday and I'm up to 13.5 inches for the month of July in Hernando Beach, about 30 miles north of Clearwater on the gulf.

[northjaxpro]

While the Non-Tropical Low meanders around the next couple of days over those warm sst's, there is a chance in my view that the shear may relax just enough to possibly see this transition to fully tropical and possibly develop. We shall just watch, wait and see how it plays out.