Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

#41 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:33 pm

Also, latest SAT imagery out of the Gulf. Definitely some spinning NW of Tampa. Will this convection old together in the EGOM? If so then yes game on...

tropicwatch · #42 Postby **tropicwatch** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:35 pm

Looks like it might be trying to get its act together just north of the trough line.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

#43 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:36 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Looks like it might be trying to get its act together just north of the trough line.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Is that a possible LLC trying to form a about 150 miles WNW of Tampa? It looks like that swirl is dropping slowly SSW. That link you provided is a good close-up shot of the Eastern Gulf.

#44 Postby **psyclone** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:38 pm

If something were to form in the eastern gulf which way would it likely move? we are completely waterlogged in my neck of the woods so I'm hoping for anywhere but here. we need a break.

#45 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:41 pm

psyclone, if anything forms in the Eastern Gulf, it looks like it isn't moving much the next several days due to light steering. Eventually it looks like the models want to eject NE but the models are really having a tough time trying to figure out this situation that is for sure. Just yesterday the Euro had a hurricane forming off the SE U.S. coast and moving NE but it has dropped that idea the past couple of runs and shifting more west. If a low ends up forming in the Eastern Gulf, could be a lot more rain on the way for you folks as you would be on the eastern side.

#46 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:00 pm

Shear is dropping across the northern and eastern Gulf:

#47 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:04 pm

Yeap! Shear has been gradually dropping since yesterday in the region. I am liking the chances better as time progresses with some possible Low pressure development in the NE GOM , especially the Monday- Wednesday timeframe. The strongest vorticity I believe will be in this region

#48 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:38 pm

12Z UKMET develops a low just west of Tampa and then it eventually becomes a strong tropical storm that rides the Northern Gulf coast........this ought to open some eyes:

144 hours - New Orleans:

tropicwatch · #49 Postby **tropicwatch** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:40 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z UKMET develops a low just west of Tampa and then it eventually becomes a strong tropical storm that rides the Northern Gulf coast........this ought to open some eyes:

144 hours - New Orleans:

Now that would be pretty wild.

#50 Postby **psyclone** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:48 pm

a broad cyclonic turning is evident on the radar...a sharp line of storms running from near Orlando west northwest to the big bend area is moving SW...showers out in the Gulf west of Tampa are moving south...meanwhile over south Florida the showers/storms have an eastward component of motion. this is a change from even this morning when the torrential rain that impacted the Tampa bay are approached from the northwest (yesterday's rains did as well).

#51 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:54 pm

psyclone, I see what you mean. By the way, here is a really good sat loop where you can see the broad cyclonic turning. The shear is blowing the convection to the South and SW, but if the shear can let up, maybe something might get going off the west coast of Florida.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

Looking at this loop, it seems the beginning of potential genesis the way the area looks on satellite with the broad low just north of the convection, and all the convection on the southern side of the broad low (for now) with convection "fanning out." Question is will new convection fire or not? If so, then we could indeed see something try to get going in the Eastern Gulf as the upper-level winds are supposed to relax over the next couple of days.

stormlover2013 · #52 Postby **stormlover2013** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 5:02 pm

Well I said earlier longer this takes the more west it goes because high pressure builds back up towards se

Sanibel · #53 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 5:19 pm

Hard to pinpoint where the center is trying to form on that loop.

#54 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 5:31 pm

Sanibel look at the radar out of Tampa. Very clear broad cyclonic turning. You are right though. Tough to pick out a center as it is broad.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/

#55 Postby **psyclone** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 5:36 pm

Sanibel wrote:Hard to pinpoint where the center is trying to form on that loop.

agree. It's a total mess and a long time from becoming anything. having said that, a good sized area has received 5"+ of rain from this non entity so anytime you get PWATs north of 2" and something to lift that air you can't help but pay attention.

#56 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 5:47 pm

Looks like just some weak broad rotation but very disorganized. If Convection can sustain and sit there a day or two it might get going. Next 2 days will tell the tale!

Sanibel · #57 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 10:31 pm

It's breezy tonight which is unusual. Something's trying to kick up.

Hammy · #58 Postby **Hammy** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 11:39 pm

latest GFS running, doesn't seem to develop anything at all now through the entire run.

NCSTORMMAN · #59 Postby **NCSTORMMAN** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 11:49 pm

Hammy wrote:latest GFS running, doesn't seem to develop anything at all now through the entire run.

So, the odds are going down right? It looks like all the convection is dying in the gulf and in the atlantic. At least to me it does but I am no weatherman. Am I the only one who feels that way?

Hammy · #60 Postby **Hammy** » Sun Jul 26, 2015 12:53 am

NCSTORMMAN wrote:
Hammy wrote:latest GFS running, doesn't seem to develop anything at all now through the entire run.

So, the odds are going down right? It looks like all the convection is dying in the gulf and in the atlantic. At least to me it does but I am no weatherman. Am I the only one who feels that way?

There is still some turning in the Gulf, but much of the convection may have been from heating of the day, though there is a bit of new convection forming. I would say for the time being that it's done.

Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

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