2015 EPAC Season

[Ntxw]

Yeah Euro is showing a conveyor belt of systems from southern Mexican coast northwest-ward. According to Mike Ventrice with the waning MJO signal, El Nino low frequency forcing will be in the EPAC as with canonical events. Basically without the strong MJO the Nino shows it's true colors.

[dexterlabio]

I remember back in the day when hurricanes/typhoons form in the Pacific with a weak, incoherent MJO signal. That was around 2009. Nowadays I notice cyclone genesis in this basin (or in other areas as well) occurs only with a strong MJO event.

[Ntxw]

I remember back in the day when hurricanes/typhoons form in the Pacific with a weak, incoherent MJO signal. That was around 2009. Nowadays I notice cyclone genesis in this basin (or in other areas as well) occurs only with a strong MJO event.

Do you think that was the case? I wonder if it is because we have a better understanding now of the MJO and CCKW's in the past few years. Maybe it was there but we just weren't able to filter it out. Just an idea though.

[Yellow Evan]

I remember back in the day when hurricanes/typhoons form in the Pacific with a weak, incoherent MJO signal. That was around 2009. Nowadays I notice cyclone genesis in this basin (or in other areas as well) occurs only with a strong MJO event.

That is still the case today.

In active years, you don't really need MJO as much. In quiet years, you do.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF (Felicia, Guillermo, with Hilda forming to tis south)

[Hurricane Jed]

Storms galore. Hope Hilda becomes a cane this year

[Yellow Evan]

Despite the ECMWF support, zilch from the GFS even though it forecasts low shear in the EPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about 700 miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Some gradual development is possible early next week while this
system moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about 700 miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Gradual development of this system is possible early next week while
it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward well offshore
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Yellow Evan]

A weak area of low pressure is located about 650 miles south-
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of this system early next week while it
moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward well offshore of
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Yellow Evan]

A weak area of low pressure located about 650 miles south-southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of this system early next week while it
moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward well offshore of
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[Yellow Evan]

A weak area of low pressure located about 700 miles south-southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce a large area of
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while
the low moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Models on this one trending west. More west, stronger it will become.

Also have another two systems behind this one.

[Yellow Evan]

IF anyone cares, three more systems after 99E per 6z GFS

[cycloneye]

Yellow Evan,potential longtracker on long range.

[Yellow Evan]

Yellow Evan,potential longtracker on long range.

Yep. These storms should start going more W and threatening Hawaii more. We've gotten a lot of what are by EPAC standards, high latitude systems that bring rain/rough seas to the US, but no southern clippers that can from time to time lead to 20+ and sometimes 40+ ACE systems.

[CrazyC83]

Yellow Evan,potential longtracker on long range.

Yep. These storms should start going more W and threatening Hawaii more. We've gotten a lot of what are by EPAC standards, high latitude systems that bring rain/rough seas to the US, but no southern clippers that can from time to time lead to 20+ and sometimes 40+ ACE systems.

It seems unusual for July anyway for storms to rise so much in latitude. These storms are behaving more like September or October storms.

[Yellow Evan]

Yellow Evan,potential longtracker on long range.

Yep. These storms should start going more W and threatening Hawaii more. We've gotten a lot of what are by EPAC standards, high latitude systems that bring rain/rough seas to the US, but no southern clippers that can from time to time lead to 20+ and sometimes 40+ ACE systems.

It seems unusual for July anyway for storms to rise so much in latitude. These storms are behaving more like September or October storms.

It's due to the fact SST's are well above average and thus the EPAC SST gradient is further north (really just exists along the California Current off the coast of Baja).

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF has two more storms forming within the next week.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by early next week.
Some development of this system is possible while it moves westward
to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by early next week.
Some development of this system is possible while it moves westward
to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percen