Just a note about my 11 a.m. forecast

JetMaxx · #1 Postby **JetMaxx** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 12:27 pm

I recieved a very unkind email calling me "an alarmist wishcaster" for forecasting 125 mph at landfall of hurricane Isabel....and I "was scaring everyone to death for no reason", because "Isabel was falling apart and dying". He also mentioned I was forecasting a cat-3 with NO model guidance to back me up....

IF anyone has taken the time to check the latest run of the GFDL (06z), the 36 hour landfall intensity is now forecast by the GFDL to be 106 kts....or 122 mph.

In the end, my analysis may turn out to be incorrect....but I'm certainly not "-removed-" an impossible event --not when there is model data backing me up.

#2 Postby **Lowpressure** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 12:32 pm

Especially with recon flt winds of 115kts.

#3 Postby **ALhurricane** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 12:32 pm

Perry,

I along with every other reasonable person on this board knows you are not an alarmist. You have a sound reason for your forecast. A forecast that I can certainly see coming true.

One look at the WV shows the dry air over the Carolinas retreating. Isabel is entering into a more favorable environment and I would not be at all surprised to see a mid level Cat 3 at landfall. The fact that the recon is still reporting 115 kt flight level wind should tell people something. Despite all the dry air, Isabel has been able to hold her own. No pressure rises since yesterday evening.

Don't worry about the wackos out there trying to bug you.

debbiet · #4 Postby **debbiet** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 12:37 pm

I certainly don't feel that you're an alarmist...while I haven't mapped out or compared your forecast to the actual ones, I have a feeling that you've been pretty darned close from the start. Thanks for your patience with ME...you've answered all of my questions promptly and professionally. Obviously there are many different possibilities...that's what keeps everybody coming back here...but I for one just wanted to say thanks!

Howlin · #5 Postby **Howlin** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 12:56 pm

JetMaxx wrote:I recieved a very unkind email calling me "an alarmist wishcaster" for forecasting 125 mph at landfall of hurricane Isabel....and I "was scaring everyone to death for no reason", because "Isabel was falling apart and dying". He also mentioned I was forecasting a cat-3 with NO model guidance to back me up....

IF anyone has taken the time to check the latest run of the GFDL (06z), the 36 hour landfall intensity is now forecast by the GFDL to be 106 kts....or 122 mph.

In the end, my analysis may turn out to be incorrect....but I'm certainly not "-removed-" an impossible event --not when there is model data backing me up.

Sitting here in Raleigh, North Carolina, with a niece and a nephew in Wrightsville Beach, I can tell you I don't think you're an alarmist at all.

And with my little knowledge, what I've seen you post has been dead on.

Thank you.

#6 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 12:58 pm

I'll tell you what Isabel doesn't look like a system packing packing
105 mph winds. The deep convection is just not there.

JetMaxx · #7 Postby **JetMaxx** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 1:31 pm

Here's something to think about.....

There were no satellites until 1960...and no coastal weather radars until the late 1950's. We DON'T KNOW what hurricane Hazel looked like 24 hours before landfall or at landfall. We'll never know for certain what the 1938 and 1944 severe east coast hurricanes looked like.

I suspect the 1926 Great Miami hurricane was an annular hurricane, and probably the monster 1928 San Felipe hurricane that killed thousands in Florida and thousands more in the Caribbean. I can theorize the violent 1935 Labor Day hurricane was a more intense carbon copy of Andrew...tight, intense, and deadly; but I'll never know for sure.

What I do know is we have a large....very large hurricane moving toward the Carolina coast. According to recon it has both the winds aloft AND central pressure to meet cat-3 criteria (115 kts and 956 mb).

So it's strange looking...doesn't appear like most large hurricanes; it's not classic anymore, nor annular, nor exciting to "ooh" and "aah" over - but for all we know, neither were hurricane Hazel or the 1938 Long Island Express...and they both took the lives over 100 Americans...

If I were along the coast in the path of this hurricane I'd be evacuating...and if I was unable to leave, I'd be terrified...because of what it is capable of; and even more frightening...what it could become before making landfall tomorrow (it hasn't reached the gulf stream yet).

HuffWx · #8 Postby **HuffWx** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 1:34 pm

PW...

As a long time friend..No worries. People who know your character and forecasting abilities will not question you. Anyone who ran up phone bills pre -internet days to chech SST's in the atlantic is a nut!

Good call...I was watching that dryer air loop in and thought it may weaken to a 1...I Look to be wrong.

Huff

Mello1 · #9 Postby **Mello1** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 2:40 pm

I found this site just a couple of days ago and I have been totally hooked since. In fact, I deeply respect the level of educated guesses here and put more faith in them than the corporate media's responses.

I've been looking at this storm from a metaphysical perspective and this storm, IMO, is unlike anything that we have seen in the Atlantic in recent modern times. And for a storm to take such a hit yesterday, nearly sheared off on the SW side and still spin up to maintain Cat 2 intensity and dead on course is very interesting to me.... to say the least.

I have followed JetMaxx's discussion more than any others because of the technical points he raises that is not really being discussed by anyone else.

Further, on another message board, someone in NY (Long Island) mentioned a report on WCBS radio where they have already told the people in Nassau Cty to expect their power to go out for at least 48 hours if the storm continues on it's present course and speed. I find this interesting as well, since by the time the storm reaches the NY area, it is being forecasted to be an extra-tropical system. In my mind, that can't be any worst than their winter nor'easters.

So, am I just being my usual overly suspicious self, or is there more to this storm that we just don't understand as of yet? Is this storm set to restrengthen with an intensity more powerful than being projected at this time?

As always, I hope for the best, but prepare for the worst case sceanero. JM, keep up the good work.

luvbeinggramma · #10 Postby **luvbeinggramma** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 2:55 pm

Hi Mello,

I found this board 3 days ago and have been totally hooked since myself. I have learned so much about hurricanes from reading all the posts and really enjoy JetMaxx's discussions as well.

I live in the Niagara Peninsula region and have an avid interest in how strong Hurricane Isabel will be when she reaches the shores as she appears to be making a direct hit over land(remanents?) toward us. :o

Thank you all for your in depth, informative posts.

Carolina_survivor · #11 Postby **Carolina_survivor** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 3:05 pm

As an eastern North Carolina resident, I'd much rather be relieved if the storm comes in weaker than expected, than unprepared if it comes in stronger than expected. I have been reading and appreciating your posts too.

Just a note about my 11 a.m. forecast

Just a note about my 11 a.m. forecast

Thanks!

Re: Just a note about my 11 a.m. forecast

I tell you what.

First Time Posting...

Great Board!!

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