Low near Delmarva

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Hammy
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Low near Delmarva

#1 Postby Hammy » Sat Jul 11, 2015 1:25 pm

System NHC tweeted about yesterday seems to have formed a low pressure now over eastern Virginia, and is being developed by both the Euro (showing +5C 850mb temp anomaly surrounded by 0C, which indicates tropical nature) and the NAM (the latter seemed to do the best with the last two systems of the US models).
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floridasun78
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Re: Low near Delmarva

#2 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Jul 11, 2015 4:35 pm

their weather blog i read talking about maybe low forming move fast to ne
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#3 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Jul 11, 2015 4:43 pm

It seems to be well positioned to develop...these El Nino years don't slow down these kind of systems.
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#4 Postby Hammy » Sat Jul 11, 2015 6:47 pm

After tweeting about it, and given all the models develop something, I'm surprised there have been no mention in the outlook yet despite Arthur last year being mentioned while still over Georgia. It certainly looks like it's starting to organize.
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#5 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 11, 2015 9:37 pm

yes I am surprised too especially with the reliable ECMWF showing development.

Guess they are too busy tracking the monsters-to-be brewing in the EPAC. :)
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CrazyC83
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Re:

#6 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Jul 11, 2015 10:01 pm

Hammy wrote:After tweeting about it, and given all the models develop something, I'm surprised there have been no mention in the outlook yet despite Arthur last year being mentioned while still over Georgia. It certainly looks like it's starting to organize.


I'd at least put a code yellow on it personally.
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tolakram
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Re: Low near Delmarva

#7 Postby tolakram » Sun Jul 12, 2015 12:24 am

Image

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system has moved off of the east coast
of the United States and is located about 70 miles east of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina. Although showers and thunderstorms have
become concentrated near the center of the low, environmental
conditions are expected to only be marginally conducive for
development of a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next
day or so while the low moves eastward and then northeastward away
from the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Stewart
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Re: Low near Delmarva

#8 Postby tolakram » Sun Jul 12, 2015 12:29 am

Is INVEST 92

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=117352
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