CPAC: ELA - Post-Tropical

#41 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun Jul 05, 2015 2:57 pm

Alyono wrote:seems to be bogus development ahead of the system in some of the models. Causing a northward bias in the tracks

Why is the development bogus?

#42 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 05, 2015 4:04 pm

PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR 08/0000Z AROUND A CENTRAL PACIFIC
SYSTEM IF IT IS A POTENTIAL THREAT TO HAWAII.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK:
A. POSSIBLE FIX MISSION FOR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC SYSTEM AT
08/1800Z NEAR 14.5N 143.0W IF IT DEVELOPS.
B. ANOTHER POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION FOR 09/0000Z.

#43 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sun Jul 05, 2015 4:35 pm

While the models are flip flopping intensity and track wise, it's one of the larger invests near Hawaii I've seen. Looks like it'll take longer than usual to consolidate - if it does.

#44 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sun Jul 05, 2015 5:37 pm

#45 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 05, 2015 6:45 pm

A large low pressure system centered about 1550 miles southwest
of the southern tip of Baja California Sur is producing an
extensive area of cloudiness and showers. Satellite-derived
surface wind data indicate that the low is gradually becoming
better defined, and environmental conditions are forecast to
become more conducive for development over the next several days.
A tropical depression is expected to form by mid-week while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

#46 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun Jul 05, 2015 7:05 pm

It's decent looking but WPAC-esque.

#47 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sun Jul 05, 2015 7:29 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:It's decent looking but WPAC-esque.

Still trying to figure out how intensity affects the track. These model runs have been confusing to say the least.

#48 Postby **Alyono** » Sun Jul 05, 2015 10:12 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Alyono wrote:seems to be bogus development ahead of the system in some of the models. Causing a northward bias in the tracks

Why is the development bogus?

the development ahead of this is bogus. It's causing this to move too far to the north

#49 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun Jul 05, 2015 10:18 pm

Alyono wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Alyono wrote:seems to be bogus development ahead of the system in some of the models. Causing a northward bias in the tracks

Why is the development bogus?

the development ahead of this is bogus. It's causing this to move too far to the north

Are you saying you don't think this will develop much, or since it is suppose to develop much, models are too poleward.

#50 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sun Jul 05, 2015 11:51 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Are you saying you don't think this will develop much, or since it is suppose to develop much, models are too poleward.

I think he's talking about the trough? Models aren't bullish on it anymore strength wise. Minimal TS.

Here's the 00z GFS which has a Hawaii landfall once again after clearing the islands to the north the previous 2 runs.

#51 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jul 06, 2015 12:15 am

#52 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jul 06, 2015 1:11 am

A large low pressure system is centered about 1800 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. During the past several
hours, shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become
more concentrated near the center of the low. Environmental
conditions are steadily becoming more conducive for development, and
a tropical depression could form by Tuesday while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

#53 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jul 06, 2015 3:37 am

Organizing rather nicely through Dmin.

I'd raise the odds. Hopefully quicker intensification means it takes a more N route and solely provides Hawaii with some needed rains.

#54 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jul 06, 2015 5:04 am

Dmin and Dmax are very overrated.

But I agree it looks nice.

#55 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jul 06, 2015 5:05 am

WTPN21 PHNC 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8N 128.8W TO 14.1N 137.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.3N 129.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N
127.9W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 129.5W, APPROXIMATELY 1500 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
BANDING, ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED LLCC. A
060540Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH MOSTLY 20 KNOTS OF
WIND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW
VWS 10 TO 20 KNOTS OF VWS. MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM IS
GOOD, WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS AREA BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070900Z.//
NNNN

#56 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jul 06, 2015 6:00 am

06z GFS and 00z Euro have a depression clearing the islands. Confusing.

It has a nice anti cyclone situated over it to disperess the Hawaiian shear and I'd side with the intensity models of having a decent cane. From the looks of it, we could see a classification tomorrow.

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#57 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jul 06, 2015 6:15 am

#58 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jul 06, 2015 6:30 am

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu and the National Hurricane Center in Miami are monitoring an area of disturbed weather over the east Pacific. This area will continue to be closely monitored for any signs of development. Confidence in the long range forecast for next weekend is rather low at the present time. The current extended forecast keeps us in a trade wind regime with a weak trough of low pressure embedded in the trades. This could change depending on whether or not a system develops and on its future track and intensity.

#59 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 06, 2015 6:47 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large low pressure system centered about 1700 miles east-
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has changed little in
organization during the past few hours. However, environmental
conditions are expected to be become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan

#60 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 06, 2015 8:16 am

EP, 96, 2015070612, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1312W, 25, 1006, LO

CPAC: ELA - Post-Tropical

Re:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

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