Kingarabian wrote:
I know Iniki is super rare, it was, but a lot of these cross over storms have become more frequent and seemingly stronger.
The last time we had a CPAC brewed threat was in 2009, Hurricane Neki. I think this could be the season where we see a legit hurricane forming in the CPAC.
Ana was CPAC bound last year, but that was a Cat 1. Keep in mind that the strongest CPAC homegrown has ever gotten, aside from Ioke, was 120 knots.
I wouldn't say cross overs have become more common. If anything, they've become less common. CPAC use to get 5+ EPAC crossover some years during the 80's and 90s. Stronger, compared to the late 90s and 2000s, sure though. In the last active era, storms used to pass 140W at what today people would consider near Category 5 intensity, which to be fair, hasn't happened in decades, though I think that can happen in current conditions.
Most storms that become strong in the EPAC seem to do so a little further north nowadays, so I'd argue that an Iniki is less likely than an Iwa/Nina, or even an Iselle. Who knows, maybe this year can reverse the trend. That and the fact the SST's are getting warmer further north, making it easier for a storm to hit Hawaii from the east.