2015 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

I'd be worried about August. September things start to hit MX.

October/November too due to the fact that is when most big Hawaii storms strike.

Well Iniki hit in September. I think it's the sole Hawaii storm that relates to modern trends compared to past Hawaii striking storms. Mainly because all the bullets Hawaii has dodged in recent years were Iniki-esque track wise. Track west, become strong and play the ridging/troughing timing game.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd be worried about August. September things start to hit MX.

October/November too due to the fact that is when most big Hawaii storms strike.

Well Iniki hit in September. I think it's the sole Hawaii storm that relates to modern trends compared to past Hawaii striking storms. Mainly because all the bullets Hawaii has dodged in recent years were Iniki-esque track wise. Track west, become strong and play the ridging/troughing timing game.

Iniki passed further south than most recent Hawaii threats. While since the EPAC is getting warmer the past few years, and the number of storms that hit Hawaii from the east (or come close to) have increased, I'd argue an Iwa/Nina situation is more likely still than an Iniki. Iniki was absolute perfect timing from a fairy rare CPAC Cat 4 near 160W.

[CrazyC83]

October and November seem to be more likely for Hawaii hits at high intensity IMO, since it requires a trough that digs down really low. Iniki seemed pretty early in the season.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
about 1000 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level conditions are
forecast to become conducive for some development of this system
early next week while it moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[Yellow Evan]

3 storms here, none threaten Hawaii



And then this GFS one that it later brings into MX

And then 95E.

[cycloneye]

This should be 96E shortly.

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
about 1200 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level conditions are
forecast to become conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while it moves to the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[srainhoutx]

This should be 96E shortly.

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
about 1200 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level conditions are
forecast to become conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while it moves to the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

This system looks most impressive via satellite and I expect it will put on a show safely across the open waters of the Eastern Pacific. The upper air pattern looks very conducive for tropical development as a strong CCKW continues to move E toward the Pacific Coast of Mexico.

[cycloneye]

Invest 96E is up

[Yellow Evan]

GFS still very keen on a monster near MX by day 13-1 that first forms on day 6-7.

[Kingarabian]

Euro has a TS skirting Hawaii, actually.

[cycloneye]

Euro has a TS skirting Hawaii, actually.

That is 96E.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS

[Kingarabian]

I'd be worried about August. September things start to hit MX.

October/November too due to the fact that is when most big Hawaii storms strike.

Well Iniki hit in September. I think it's the sole Hawaii storm that relates to modern trends compared to past Hawaii striking storms. Mainly because all the bullets Hawaii has dodged in recent years were Iniki-esque track wise. Track west, become strong and play the ridging/troughing timing game.

Iniki passed further south than most recent Hawaii threats. While since the EPAC is getting warmer the past few years, and the number of storms that hit Hawaii from the east (or come close to) have increased, I'd argue an Iwa/Nina situation is more likely still than an Iniki. Iniki was absolute perfect timing from a fairy rare CPAC Cat 4 near 160W.

I know Iniki is super rare, it was, but a lot of these cross over storms have become more frequent and seemingly stronger.

The last time we had a CPAC brewed threat was in 2009, Hurricane Neki. I think this could be the season where we see a legit hurricane forming in the CPAC.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[td100]

[Yellow Evan]

I know Iniki is super rare, it was, but a lot of these cross over storms have become more frequent and seemingly stronger.

The last time we had a CPAC brewed threat was in 2009, Hurricane Neki. I think this could be the season where we see a legit hurricane forming in the CPAC.

Ana was CPAC bound last year, but that was a Cat 1. Keep in mind that the strongest CPAC homegrown has ever gotten, aside from Ioke, was 120 knots.

I wouldn't say cross overs have become more common. If anything, they've become less common. CPAC use to get 5+ EPAC crossover some years during the 80's and 90s. Stronger, compared to the late 90s and 2000s, sure though. In the last active era, storms used to pass 140W at what today people would consider near Category 5 intensity, which to be fair, hasn't happened in decades, though I think that can happen in current conditions.

Most storms that become strong in the EPAC seem to do so a little further north nowadays, so I'd argue that an Iniki is less likely than an Iwa/Nina, or even an Iselle. Who knows, maybe this year can reverse the trend. That and the fact the SST's are getting warmer further north, making it easier for a storm to hit Hawaii from the east.

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at the EPAC it looks like many tropical systems will take place with the Kelvin wave and MJO are in conjunction and the results are show on the satellite pics

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at the EPAC it looks like many tropical systems will take place with the Kelvin wave and MJO are in conjunction and the results are show on the satellite pics

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I'm only thinking 2 in the next week.

[cycloneye]

Wow,a major cane shown by 12z ECMWF but is 10 days out.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS has the same thing on day 10.

Don't dismiss it.

[Kingarabian]

Yup. Expecting a mention by the NHC soon.

[TheStormExpert]

Wow,a major cane shown by 12z ECMWF but is 10 days out.

http://i.imgur.com/VSMjfiC.png

WOAH!!! You don't see the Euro showing something that BIG everyday!