ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

[Nederlander]

NHC will initiate advisories when there is a known TC. Currently all we have is a good looking MLC, who know what is going on at the surface. Odds are IMO that 91L will get upgraded soon.....MGC

This is in every sense of the word a tropical cyclone. And should've been upgraded earlier. When a Chief Met with 40 years of experience tells me he has never seen anything like this, then it certainly suggets something is a bit wonky at the NHC. It might just boil down to procedural changes that need to be made, but however you slice it, warnings should be up.

[Nimbus]

Except for the burst of convection near the center the storm presents as a very dry system.
At the time of the last recon there was even an outflow boundary south of Louisiana.
The outflow subsidence from Carlos is relatively dry,the moisture condensed out at high altitude.


91l seems to be moving pretty fast, by the time the next recon mission completes the NHC might be able to narrow down the forecast areas that they expect to be affected.

By "dry" I assume you mean a lack of extensive convection? You must because in terms of PWs and water vapor, this thing has a very large envelope and is very wet ... which is one reason why the inland rainfall totals predicted by most models are so high across east Texas.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

[SouthDadeFish]

While the moisture envelope is large, 91L may be forming quite a compact core. Hard to say for sure without radar or microwave imagery though.

[Nederlander]

Except for the burst of convection near the center the storm presents as a very dry system.
At the time of the last recon there was even an outflow boundary south of Louisiana.
The outflow subsidence from Carlos is relatively dry,the moisture condensed out at high altitude.


91l seems to be moving pretty fast, by the time the next recon mission completes the NHC might be able to narrow down the forecast areas that they expect to be affected.

By "dry" I assume you mean a lack of extensive convection? You must because in terms of PWs and water vapor, this thing has a very large envelope and is very wet ... which is one reason why the inland rainfall totals predicted by most models are so high across east Texas.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

I can't see the loop on my phone but I believe that is upper layer water vapor imagery.

[gatorcane]

Map of projected rainfall for Texas.

[SouthDadeFish]

And speaking of microwave imagery... Here is the best we've got so far:

[Stormcenter]

Use your imagination here folks as to where the center may be on this loop.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[Nederlander]

Latest vis imagery seems to suggest the core is wrapping up tight.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-94&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&mapcolor=gray&numframes=20

[jasons2k]

Quick thoughts: Been studying some long hi-res visible loops. The system has slowed. The shear has collapsed and it's building a nice anti-cyclone on top. You can see the cirrus starting to fan out on all sides with upper-level outflow setting-up. Pretty healthy looking tropical storm ramping-up. On water vapor, you can see it's in a large moist envelope and the dry air it ingested yesterday has dissipated. I would not be surprised if this made a run for hurricane status. The story will still be the rain.

[MississippiWx]

While the moisture envelope is large, 91L may be forming quite a compact core. Hard to say for sure without radar or microwave imagery though.

Agree about the tight core that seems to be developing. If that's the case, then Texas might need to expect something a little stronger. Low end hurricane can't be ruled out, but that's totally depending on what's underneath that CDO-like cloud structure.

[ROCK]

Quick thoughts: Been studying some long hi-res visible loops. The system has slowed. The shear has collapsed and it's building a nice anti-cyclone on top. You can see the cirrus starting to fan out on all sides with upper-level outflow setting-up. Pretty healthy looking tropical storm ramping-up. On water vapor, you can see it's in a large moist envelope and the dry air it ingested yesterday has dissipated. I would not be surprised if this made a run for hurricane status. The story will still be the rain.

your right about the core now starting to align since it slowed. CDO looks to be forming also....if that is the center which I think it is its got some time to make a run....

[northjaxpro]

Quick thoughts: Been studying some long hi-res visible loops. The system has slowed. The shear has collapsed and it's building a nice anti-cyclone on top. You can see the cirrus starting to fan out on all sides with upper-level outflow setting-up. Pretty healthy looking tropical storm ramping-up. On water vapor, you can see it's in a large moist envelope and the dry air it ingested yesterday has dissipated. I would not be surprised if this made a run for hurricane status. The story will still be the rain.

Yeah, an anti-cyclone has built on top of 91L during the day. Clearly seeing the outflow looking fairly decent with the system and I am fairly confident when Recon gets in there within the next 90 minutes or so, they will find at least a moderate TS. Looking at satellite imagery, a fairly decent ball of convection, seemingly a CDO near the apparent low level center has really developed over the past few hours. One thing about these tropical cyclones in the GOM, they can ramp up fairly quickly upon approach to land, as some others on the forum earlier discussed with Humberto and Claudette being two of the best examples of this.

[cycloneye]

Plane is decending so we will know very soon how things are in there.

[TheProfessor]

WPC has taken notice on the storm's size and has expanded the area they think the heaviest rain will be.

[Nederlander]

Quick thoughts: Been studying some long hi-res visible loops. The system has slowed. The shear has collapsed and it's building a nice anti-cyclone on top. You can see the cirrus starting to fan out on all sides with upper-level outflow setting-up. Pretty healthy looking tropical storm ramping-up. On water vapor, you can see it's in a large moist envelope and the dry air it ingested yesterday has dissipated. I would not be surprised if this made a run for hurricane status. The story will still be the rain.

your right about the core now starting to align since it slowed. CDO looks to be forming also....if that is the center which I think it is its got some time to make a run....

Agreed Rock. If we had 45 mph this morning, then hurricane status before landfall is not completely out of the question. Its got the right ingredients: warm ssts and low to moderate shear. I didn't expect that core to start wrapping around like it is. I think 91L is angry at the NHC and is saying, 'What do I have to do to get a name??'

[EasyTiger]

Does anyone have a sense of current and future track?

[northjaxpro]

Does anyone have a sense of current and future track?

The deep, mean layered Southeast U.S. ridge giving us scorching heat here currently is steering soon to be Bill west -northwest to eventually northwest into SE TX tomorrow and then up through Eastern TX , where flooding is forecast to be potentially extensive later this week.

[BigA]

New "hot tower" burst developing on north side of possible proto-CDO. Genuinely excited to see what recon finds.

[EasyTiger]

Does anyone have a sense of current and future track?

The deep, mean layered Southeast U.S. ridge given us scorching heat here is steering soon to be Bill west -northwest to eventually northwest into SE TX tomorrow and then up through Eastern TX , where flooding is forecast to be potentially extensive later this week.

Thanks for the synopsis - very helpful! I do see where the Bermuda high is pushing on it pretty hard at the moment. Just didn't know if it was supposed to retreat or continue to build.

[northjaxpro]

Does anyone have a sense of current and future track?

The deep, mean layered Southeast U.S. ridge given us scorching heat here is steering soon to be Bill west -northwest to eventually northwest into SE TX tomorrow and then up through Eastern TX , where flooding is forecast to be potentially extensive later this week.

Thanks for the synopsis - very helpful! I do see where the Bermuda high is pushing on it pretty hard at the moment. Just didn't know if it was supposed to retreat or continue to build.

The ridge has been persistent all spring and now well into June here in the Southeast U.S. Region, especially here in Florida. Very hot and dry here. Had a high today at my locale of 98.6 degrees, and it is forecast to get near 100 degrees here the next few days. No end in sight to this pattern here in the foreseeable future.