ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

[wicked_wx_watcher]

Pardon my ignorance, but if NHC underestimates this storm (not upgrading it, naming it, etc.) and it causes more damage than expected, will that make it more difficult for those harmed to get assistance?

I think, at this point, most people are aware of the flood potential in coastal, low-lying areas. They have to make their own decisions in regards to seeking higher ground. I trust the NHC as far as intensity goes this close to landfall. I just think there should have been a classification and warnings by now.

I know in the past, it made it difficult to receive federal assistance for states and counties.

[Stormcenter]

Looking at this latest sat loop something just does not look right about 91L.
I'm trying to find that clear cut center but i can't. IMO

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=10

[Nederlander]

Another thing working against pseudo-Bill right now is his sheer size. This is a rather large system. Smaller systems are more suitable to ramp up with a tighter pressure gradient; see Humberto.

[ozonepete]

Wow. No warnings at 5PM is a little surprising. If warnings do go up it's going to be one of the shortest lead times that I can remember in recent history. Be very careful to note this is not a criticism. I'm just wondering out loud why they won't go ahead and give a few more hours notice. My suspicion is that they don't expect any RI and it is important to note the SSTs near the coast drop off to below 26C (even below 25) well before it landfalls. I suspect they just don't expect a very strong storm but rather a prodigious rainmaker and local OEMs already know that.

My friend, where do you see those SSTs near the coast? This says otherwise:

Might have been looking at the TCHP map instead?...

No your chart is fine. As NDG said, the Floater site apparently went to sleep on updating SSTs. Your chart is good.

[wkwally]

I can understand the NHC not pulling the trigger and nameing this system but at the very least they should be issuing watchs. But once more and as I said before I hope thay are seeing something I am not.

[ozonepete]

Here:

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/sat%20rgb%20with%20SSTs%202015-06-15%201945_zpsgfxnmkuw.jpg\

The site has not updated the SSTs in weeks!

Ok, NDG, you are right. There is a timestamp in the lower left of that satellite image that says 2015150 which is Julian date for May 30th. That is really lame that they're not updating that. thanks for pointing it out.

[SunnyThoughts]

You guys over in Texas stay safe. Sure looks good not to be classified as something.

[Nederlander]

Looking at this latest sat loop something just does not look right about 91L.
I'm trying to find that clear cut center but i can't. IMO

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=10

Perhaps under the CDO? Looks to me like it could have ingested a bit of dry air to the east though. Someone can correct me if I'm seeing that wrong.

[SeGaBob]

Have they ever done THAT before? (taken directly from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov)

Yes. The first time I saw it was for 2013's Tropical Storm Melissa.

They also did it it with Ana this past May.

[davidiowx]

I can understand the NHC not pulling the trigger and nameing this system but at the very least they should be issuing watchs. But once more and as I said before I hope thay are seeing something I am not.

My thoughts exactly. I am quite surprised watches have no been issued yet. Perhaps they see something nobody else does....

[Alyono]

I can understand the NHC not pulling the trigger and nameing this system but at the very least they should be issuing watchs. But once more and as I said before I hope thay are seeing something I am not.

My thoughts exactly. I am quite surprised watches have no been issued yet. Perhaps they see something nobody else does....

their procedures do not allow them to issue warnings before an advisory is issued. Typical government over here it seems. Best to follow hard and fast procedures that take too long to change.

[NDG]

An hour ago buoy 42002 started reporting winds from the west with a pressure of 1007mb, if there is a well defined COC it is north of the 26th latitude.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

[Nederlander]

I can understand the NHC not pulling the trigger and nameing this system but at the very least they should be issuing watchs. But once more and as I said before I hope thay are seeing something I am not.

With the current setup, the NHC does not post watches/warnings without a tropical cyclone formation. And in the view of the NHC, there is no tropical cyclone yet.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm amazed they haven't pulled the trigger and classified it. Clearly appears from all obs and especially visible imagery that this has a closed Low near 26.2N 93.8W

[davidiowx]

I can understand the NHC not pulling the trigger and nameing this system but at the very least they should be issuing watchs. But once more and as I said before I hope thay are seeing something I am not.

My thoughts exactly. I am quite surprised watches have no been issued yet. Perhaps they see something nobody else does....

their procedures do not allow them to issue warnings before an advisory is issued. Typical government over here it seems. Best to follow hard and fast procedures that take too long to change.

They can issue a watch though right? I know I have seen that on the Leewards and other islands with waves en route to them in the past. Unless this is something they have changed recently.

[gatorcane]

wow no upgrade to T.S. yet? Very surprising. How is this not a T.S.? Looks like one on SAT loop, may even be some early signs of banding trying to form on the eastern side:

[psyclone]

I can understand the NHC not pulling the trigger and nameing this system but at the very least they should be issuing watchs. But once more and as I said before I hope thay are seeing something I am not.

My thoughts exactly. I am quite surprised watches have no been issued yet. Perhaps they see something nobody else does....

their procedures do not allow them to issue warnings before an advisory is issued. Typical government over here it seems. Best to follow hard and fast procedures that take too long to change.

Not according to this poster. Says it happens all the time although I'm still awaiting any one example. I believe you are correct...No advisory=no watches/warnings.

[Nederlander]

KFDM Beaumont Met Greg Bostwick in response to me asking him why the NHC is sitting on this so long:

"I don't get it as well."

EDIT: Also said "Totally agree.. In my almost 40 years never seen anything like it."

[Blinhart]

If I remember correctly the islands of the Caribbean can issue watches and warnings because they are under their own government rules and can issue watches and warnings with out having to have authorization from the NHC. I could be wrong, but I think in the past the islands have issued watches when they think a wave will be a system by the time it reaches them.

[collegebroke]

As a Houston resident thinking back to Rita, people spent hours/days in the car trying to get out of town. Even though things have been improved, I can see why the NHC is hesitant to put out an advisory because it may cause people to get out into the danger when they will probably ride this one out if they stay at home. The flooding week before last was bad in some areas. It was not a named storm and we still lost 12 souls to the waters. People around here are nervous because the lakes, rivers, and bayous haven't receded yet. I'm sure the NHC knows this because every OEM around here has probably told them. If I was the guy responsible for signing that forecast and posting it, I'd make sure I had some really good info in my pocket before I started asking all these communities to go into major event protocol. It could cost more lives by calling it (especially at rush hour) rather than not around here. IMHO. Thanks