ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

[wkwally]

Tropical Storm Watch:
An announcement that sustained winds of 34 to 63 knots (39 to 73 mph or 63 to 118 km/hr) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.

AS per the NHC's deffination of a tropical storm watch

[NDG]

Wow. No warnings at 5PM is a little surprising. If warnings do go up it's going to be one of the shortest lead times that I can remember in recent history. Be very careful to note this is not a criticism. I'm just wondering out loud why they won't go ahead and give a few more hours notice. My suspicion is that they don't expect any RI and it is important to note the SSTs near the coast drop off to below 26C (even below 25) well before it landfalls. I suspect they just don't expect a very strong storm but rather a prodigious rainmaker and local OEMs already know that.

SSTs are nothing close to below 26 deg C you must have been looking at old data.

[ozonepete]

Wow. No warnings at 5PM is a little surprising. If warnings do go up it's going to be one of the shortest lead times that I can remember in recent history. Be very careful to note this is not a criticism. I'm just wondering out loud why they won't go ahead and give a few more hours notice. My suspicion is that they don't expect any RI and it is important to note the SSTs near the coast drop off to below 26C (even below 25) well before it landfalls. I suspect they just don't expect a very strong storm but rather a prodigious rainmaker and local OEMs already know that.

My friend, where do you see those SSTs near the coast? This says otherwise:

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/wgof.html

Here:

[psyclone]

I don't understand. They've initiated advisories numerous times in the past based on satellite/buoy/other data without a plane.

The biggest headache with this is that it forces employers/schools/etc. to make decisions for tomorrow after-hours. It's going to be quite a scramble to communicate all the closings and other impacts last-minute.

most of them have private services. NHC is not playing as big of a role as one may expect

This exactly. I am still surprised the NHC hasn't at least issued watches. I have seen so many times watches be issued way before a storm is classified. This just doesn't make any sense to me.

When have watches been issued before a storm is classified? Please provide any examples.

[Nederlander]

I have a bad feeling about this one. I hope I am wrong and the NHC is seeing something I am not.

I wouldn't worry too much. There's not enough time/room for it to have significant strengthening as we are in the 24-36 range. And as others have indicated, the NHC's hesitancy suggests no real chance of RI. More or less a big rain event.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

Have they ever done THAT before? (taken directly from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov)

I have never heard or seen that before. I have been listening and watching NHC advisories since...well Tropical Storm Delia in 1973..and before...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_ ... %281973%29

That's definitely new.

[jabman98]

People in Houston seem to be taking the storm somewhat seriously if my local Kroger is any indication. Stopped by to get a few things and it was packed and non-perishable items like canned goods were really picked over. Water was piled up at the entrance and pretty much every other cart had a case of water in it. The checkout clerk told me they'd run out of water yesterday and had to restock.

Store was really busy. Hard to find a place to park and almost all checkout lanes were open and in use. The employees told me they'd been busy all day.

Maybe the flooding a few weeks ago woke people up. We aren't looking forward to more flooding conditions, that's for sure.

[floridasun78]

Have they ever done THAT before? (taken directly from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov)

I have never heard or seen that before. I have been listening and watching NHC advisories since...well Tropical Storm Delia in 1973..and before...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_ ... %281973%29

That's definitely new.

yes all years i want site never seen them post that

[Craters]

Wow. No warnings at 5PM is a little surprising. If warnings do go up it's going to be one of the shortest lead times that I can remember in recent history. Be very careful to note this is not a criticism. I'm just wondering out loud why they won't go ahead and give a few more hours notice. My suspicion is that they don't expect any RI and it is important to note the SSTs near the coast drop off to below 26C (even below 25) well before it landfalls. I suspect they just don't expect a very strong storm but rather a prodigious rainmaker and local OEMs already know that.

My friend, where do you see those SSTs near the coast? This says otherwise:

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/wgof.html

Might have been looking at the THCP map instead?...

[davidiowx]

When have watches been issued before a storm is classified? Please provide any examples.

This happens all of the time for the islands in the Atlantic.

[NDG]

Wow. No warnings at 5PM is a little surprising. If warnings do go up it's going to be one of the shortest lead times that I can remember in recent history. Be very careful to note this is not a criticism. I'm just wondering out loud why they won't go ahead and give a few more hours notice. My suspicion is that they don't expect any RI and it is important to note the SSTs near the coast drop off to below 26C (even below 25) well before it landfalls. I suspect they just don't expect a very strong storm but rather a prodigious rainmaker and local OEMs already know that.

My friend, where do you see those SSTs near the coast? This says otherwise:

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/wgof.html

Here:

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/sat%20rgb%20with%20SSTs%202015-06-15%201945_zpsgfxnmkuw.jpg

The site has not updated the SSTs in weeks!

[Craters]

Wow. No warnings at 5PM is a little surprising. If warnings do go up it's going to be one of the shortest lead times that I can remember in recent history. Be very careful to note this is not a criticism. I'm just wondering out loud why they won't go ahead and give a few more hours notice. My suspicion is that they don't expect any RI and it is important to note the SSTs near the coast drop off to below 26C (even below 25) well before it landfalls. I suspect they just don't expect a very strong storm but rather a prodigious rainmaker and local OEMs already know that.

My friend, where do you see those SSTs near the coast? This says otherwise:

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/wgof.html

Might have been looking at the TCHP map instead?...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Have they ever done THAT before? (taken directly from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov)

Yes. The first time I saw it was for 2013's Tropical Storm Melissa.

[wkwally]

People in Houston seem to be taking the storm somewhat seriously if my local Kroger is any indication. Stopped by to get a few things and it was packed and non-perishable items like canned goods were really picked over. Water was piled up at the entrance and pretty much every other cart had a case of water in it. The checkout clerk told me they'd run out of water yesterday and had to restock.

Store was really busy. Hard to find a place to park and almost all checkout lanes were open and in use. The employees told me they'd been busy all day.

Maybe the flooding a few weeks ago woke people up. We aren't looking forward to more flooding conditions, that's for sure.

This is what I just told my daughter and her friends

[wicked_wx_watcher]

Pardon my ignorance, but if NHC underestimates this storm (not upgrading it, naming it, etc.) and it causes more damage than expected, will that make it more difficult for those harmed to get assistance?

[psyclone]

When have watches been issued before a storm is classified? Please provide any examples.

This happens all of the time for the islands in the Atlantic.

I don't recall such a thing. please provide any one example

[Nederlander]

Pardon my ignorance, but if NHC underestimates this storm (not upgrading it, naming it, etc.) and it causes more damage than expected, will that make it more difficult for those harmed to get assistance?

I think, at this point, most people are aware of the flood potential in coastal, low-lying areas. They have to make their own decisions in regards to seeking higher ground. I trust the NHC as far as intensity goes this close to landfall. I just think there should have been a classification and warnings by now.

[ROCK]

I don't understand. They've initiated advisories numerous times in the past based on satellite/buoy/other data without a plane.

The biggest headache with this is that it forces employers/schools/etc. to make decisions for tomorrow after-hours. It's going to be quite a scramble to communicate all the closings and other impacts last-minute.

agree...I am just going to keep my kids home...

[wicked_wx_watcher]

People in Houston seem to be taking the storm somewhat seriously if my local Kroger is any indication. Stopped by to get a few things and it was packed and non-perishable items like canned goods were really picked over. Water was piled up at the entrance and pretty much every other cart had a case of water in it. The checkout clerk told me they'd run out of water yesterday and had to restock.

Store was really busy. Hard to find a place to park and almost all checkout lanes were open and in use. The employees told me they'd been busy all day.

Maybe the flooding a few weeks ago woke people up. We aren't looking forward to more flooding conditions, that's for sure.

According to grocery store managers in the Clear Lake, Webster, League City areas, all water stocks are depleted and they don't think they can get more before this event. However, I went to Lowe's this afternoon, they carry water for construction jobs and have plenty available in 32 bottle flats.

[Yellow Evan]

How is this not a TS??

I've never been baffled at the NHC before