Gulf of Mexico: Invest 91L is up

[tropicwatch]

The wind shear in the northern Gulf of Mexico has really relaxed this afternoon. This has allowed a nice blow up of showers form in the gulf which it has been devoid of, most of this season.

[Nimbus]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42001&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=CDT

[Yellow Evan]

No model support.

And in the ATL, when there is no model support, I highly doubt it will form.

[NDG]

The wind shear in the northern Gulf of Mexico has really relaxed this afternoon. This has allowed a nice blow up of showers form in the gulf which it has been devoid of, most of this season.

http://tropicwatch.info/wg8shr.gif

No development here, it is nothing more than an upper level low enhancing convection.

[Sanibel]

Typical dead June.

[tailgater]

forecasting a weak low in the BOC for the 48 and 72 hr. time period.

[Sanibel]

Flare-up in west Gulf.

[Dean4Storms]

So today's 12z GFS run develops a Closed Low off the NW Yucatan peninsula over the weekend then heads toward South TX.

[Stormcenter]

Link or image please...thanks.

So today's 12z GFS run develops a Closed Low off the NW Yucatan peninsula over the weekend then heads toward South TX.

[Alyono]

confirmed

[hurrtracker79]

Link or image please...thanks.

So today's 12z GFS run develops a Closed Low off the NW Yucatan peninsula over the weekend then heads toward South TX.

12Z CMC and NAM also trying to develop a weak area of low pressure next week in the W Gulf. Awaiting the EURO..

[gatorcane]

Not sure if this is the right thread but NHC mentions it:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the
northwestern Caribbean Sea to Belize and the Yucatan peninsula of
Mexico are primarily associated with an upper-level trough. This
activity is expected to move northwestward into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by late Sunday where development, if any, is unlikely
due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Blake/Franklin

[stormlover2013]

Cmc, gfs,euro on board

[PTrackerLA]

Interesting, looks like a big rain maker could be in the cards. Today is very "tropical" feeling with a repeating cycle of showers/sun/showers as the deep moisture flow from the Gulf is increasing.

[ronjon]

Both GFS and NAM continue to show development off the NW coast of the Yucatan in 72 hours. Getting strong model support for a tropical storm in the GOM with CMC and Euro on board. Oh add the NAVGEM as on board too. Looks like upper Tx coast right now based on models.

[KatDaddy]

Time for the fun and games to begin. We do not need anymore rain in SE TX after the heavy flooding rains last month. Several days of deep moisture from the Caribbean followed my a weak tropical system could bring a significant flood event. SE TX can stand 5-6" rains before flooding becomes an issue but with a tropical environment that could occur in several hours. Time to start watching the models a little closer.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS is very bullish.

[stormlover2013]

Why do u say it's very bullish?

[gatorcane]

Because it shows a tropical storm

[Riptide]

Because it shows a tropical storm

Didn't know Storm2k was the stock market. Joking

I'm kind of underwhelmed by the lack of coverage for this system. Typical GOM sleeper.