Convection north of Panama

[Nimbus]

There has been lots of lift in the area for a while now but the wind shear has not allowed persistent convection.
This morning I noticed a strong convective burst just north of Panama that appears at least temporarily to be forming under less shear.

This area is not completely divorced from the EPac so perhaps the area forecast to form there will become dominant before the cross?

[abajan]

Well, it's something to watch but with El Niño coming on strong, "wind shear" will likely be repeated many times this season.

This post is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and is not backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

There is a nice mid level vorticity north of the Honduran/Nica border but at the surface there is nothing but easterly winds sweeping across the area.

[emeraldislenc]

very impressive thunder storms

[floridasun78]

storms area by Honduras look not weaking yet their keep building

[HURAKAN]

40+ kt of shear

[floridasun78]

it now almost gone waking fast

[Sanibel]

The convection north of Honduras is typical of early season. Showing signs of trying to congeal but being badly sheared-off.

[tailgater]

some decent 850 mb vorticity.

[Nimbus]

You can see some vorticity in the central gulf in the water vapor imagery but the buoy pressures are all currently near 1015.