Predict the EPAC hurricane numbers for 2015!

[galaxy401]

Including the CPAC:

21/12/7

[TheStormExpert]

24/14/10

This season will basically be the East Pacific's version of the 2005 Atlantic Season potentially. Since Andres and probably Blanca should become both Major Hurricanes I figured that it's best to strive high in terms of numbers. After all we are only two weeks into the season.

[Yellow Evan]

24/14/10

This season will basically be the East Pacific's version of the 2005 Atlantic Season potentially. Since Andres and probably Blanca should become both Major Hurricanes I figured that it's best to strive high in terms of numbers. After all we are only two weeks into the season.

Still shy of the record # of TS's and hurricanes of 28 and 16.

[CaliforniaResident]

24/14/10

This season will basically be the East Pacific's version of the 2005 Atlantic Season potentially. Since Andres and probably Blanca should become both Major Hurricanes I figured that it's best to strive high in terms of numbers. After all we are only two weeks into the season.

The big question is IF y'all think that I'm being way too farfetched about my prediction of an October landfall near San Diego. If this season is as hyperactive as some of us are predicting with the Nino peaking in fall and also given that the SST are warmest here in September and October (much warmer than in June/July), it's a real possibility and not a "joke" as some of you are treating it as such.

Given that our infrastructure and landscape is not equipped to deal with even moderately heavy rain and wind, I think that even a barely cat 1 or even strong TS could cause more damage in San Diego than a cat 3 in the Southeastern U.S or a cat 2 in the Northeastern U.S.

On the other hand, it would quickly end the fire season (which also peaks in fall) here due to the fact that we normally get no rain in the summer months and it would put a major dent in our 4 year drought.

For those of you who say it's physically impossible, nope, it's happened before:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1858_San_Diego_hurricane

[xtyphooncyclonex]

24/14/10

This season will basically be the East Pacific's version of the 2005 Atlantic Season potentially. Since Andres and probably Blanca should become both Major Hurricanes I figured that it's best to strive high in terms of numbers. After all we are only two weeks into the season.

The big question is IF y'all think that I'm being way too farfetched about my prediction of an October landfall near San Diego. If this season is as hyperactive as some of us are predicting with the Nino peaking in fall and also given that the SST are warmest here in September and October (much warmer than in June/July), it's a real possibility and not a "joke" as some of you are treating it as such.

Given that our infrastructure and landscape is not equipped to deal with even moderately heavy rain and wind, I think that even a barely cat 1 or even strong TS could cause more damage in San Diego than a cat 3 in the Southeastern U.S or a cat 2 in the Northeastern U.S.

On the other hand, it would quickly end the fire season (which also peaks in fall) here due to the fact that we normally get no rain in the summer months and it would put a major dent in our 4 year drought.

For those of you who say it's physically impossible, nope, it's happened before:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1858_San_Diego_hurricane

Just because it happened before does not mean it will happen this year. Anything is possible, but that's just extremely unlikely. Not even the Super Niño events of 1982/97 had a hurricane landfalling over Cali. A full fledged tropical cyclone making landfall over Cali this year is much less likely than a category 5 super typhoon directly impacting my city.

[Cyclenall]

My 2015 North Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Prediction is as follows:

23/13/9 (Final)

ACE: 212

These are some point form notes on my thoughts for this season:

- At least one category 5 hurricane will form
- There will be one major hurricane landfall on the mainland Mexican coastline this season
- More TC's will be traveling westwards at a low latitude this season entering into the Cpac
- In the "Hyper-Active" category for Epac seasons
- Four large hurricanes will form
- The 3rd major hurricane will form near July 6-12
- One tropical cyclone will have a true (not an exaggerated) pinhole eye

Note: None of this is based on scientific data or factual evidence. These are general thoughts that I have on what I think will happen.

Predict the number of named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific for the 2015 season:

33/22/11......and one landfall in a place where you least expect it to happen...

What do you think the chances are (in %) of that number set coming to fruition? Is the landfall location where we least expect it Panama? Did I win?

[CaliforniaResident]

Predict the number of named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific for the 2015 season:

33/22/11......and one landfall in a place where you least expect it to happen...

What do you think the chances are (in %) of that number set coming to fruition? Is the landfall location where we least expect it Panama? Did I win?[/quote]

I won't give a percentage since I'm making my prediction based on intuition/hunches.
Scroll up to see where and when I predict the landfall.
The only problem is that our SST have cooled back to "normal" but I anticipate them warming back to well above normal (like they were last fall) once the warm water from the then-strong El Nino makes its way up here.

[Cyclenall]

I won't give a percentage since I'm making my prediction based on intuition/hunches.
Scroll up to see where and when I predict the landfall.
The only problem is that our SST have cooled back to "normal" but I anticipate them warming back to well above normal (like they were last fall) once the warm water from the then-strong El Nino makes its way up here.

For Epac followers, California is not where we least expect it because its happened before, Panama or Alaska would be options for that criteria.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Hey CaliforniaResident, please add your disclaimer

[CaliforniaResident]

Hey CaliforniaResident, please add your disclaimer

Here it goes: I am not a meteorologist or a climate scientist; my statements and predictions are based on my own speculations.