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TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Both Andres and Blanca have displayed a pattern of convective warming throughout the daylight hours and convective deepening throughout the overnight hours. It's long believed that diurnal cycles don't affect significant tropical cyclones, but I'm not no sure that's the case after watching these two systems.
JtSmarts wrote:Don't usually follow the Pacific, but wow, what a nice looking storm! Hopefully she's not a major problem for Baja.
cycloneye wrote:Some upwelling may begin soon if Blanca doesn't start to move.
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Ntxw wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Looks like some dry air is creeping into view from the N/NNW. Will this possibly affect it?
I wouldn't worry about it too much yet. Example would've been Andres, unlike some systems over in the Atlantic, EPAC storms can fight off dry air well. Especially with a good CCKW and ENSO convection below it backing it up. Cooling SST's down the road would be a bigger detriment but that's still a ways off.
Yeah, dry air shouldn't be too much of an issue in the absence of wind shear. As you said, we saw that with Andres which blossomed to 130kt despite a large mass of dry air in its vicinity, and we've seen it with numerous cyclones before then.
Ntxw wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Looks like some dry air is creeping into view from the N/NNW. Will this possibly affect it?
I wouldn't worry about it too much yet. Example would've been Andres, unlike some systems over in the Atlantic, EPAC storms can fight off dry air well. Especially with a good CCKW and ENSO convection below it backing it up. Cooling SST's down the road would be a bigger detriment but that's still a ways off.
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Both Andres and Blanca have displayed a pattern of convective warming throughout the daylight hours and convective deepening throughout the overnight hours. It's long believed that diurnal cycles don't affect significant tropical cyclones, but I'm not no sure that's the case after watching these two systems.
Yellow Evan wrote:cycloneye wrote:Some upwelling may begin soon if Blanca doesn't start to move.
Yes, but the upwelling shouldn't be too bad.
HEAT CONTENT 98 99 99 94 88 58 24
Kingarabian wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:cycloneye wrote:Some upwelling may begin soon if Blanca doesn't start to move.
Yes, but the upwelling shouldn't be too bad.
HEAT CONTENT 98 99 99 94 88 58 24
The NHC hasn't mentioned a word about upwelling in any of its forecasts, this could be the reason
Yellow Evan wrote:Cloud tops warming on the north side. Don't know why.
MiamiensisWx wrote:I think a bigger problem than upwelling and mid-level dry air is the extreme upper-level divergence over the system. This pattern has facilitated the development of persistent outer convective banding on the south side of the cyclone over the past few days, which could be disrupting inflow into the inner core. To be honest, that makes more sense than any diurnal convective wane. I don't expect things to change until Blanca starts its re-curvature overnight, but when it does, I expect shear to be low enough so that dry air won't be too much of a problem. The big question is whether the lopsided convective pattern forces an early eyewall replacement cycle, which would throw a wrench into the intensity forecast, likely leading to a weaker system that takes time to recover, thereby having a briefer window for re-intensification before shear increases and heat content diminishes.
MiamiensisWx wrote:I think a bigger problem than upwelling and mid-level dry air is the extreme upper-level divergence over thesystem. This pattern has facilitated the development of persistent outer convective banding on the south side of the cyclone over the past few days, which could be disrupting inflow into the inner core. To be honest, that makes more sense than any diurnal convective wane. I don't expect things to change until Blanca starts its re-curvature overnight, but when it does, I expect shear to be low enough so that dry air won't be too much of a problem. The big question is whether the lopsided convective pattern forces an early eyewall replacement cycle, which would throw a wrench into the intensity forecast, likely leading to a weaker system that takes time to recover, thereby having a briefer window for re-intensification before shear increases and heat content diminishes.
1900hurricane wrote:It's somewhat tough to say with any certainty what is ailing Blanca currently, but if I had to guess, I'd actually say eyewall replacement. Microwave imagery from this morning showed a rather loose brightness gradient between the warmest part of the eye and coldest updrafts in the eyewall, which is something that is often seen in the latter stages of eyewall replacement. A flaw in this thinking though is that this pass occurred only just at cloud tops were beginning to warm, but it is perhaps possible that the polar orbiter did not have the resolution to resolve the very small inner eyewall well enough to clearly distinguish it, thereby displaying the loose brightness gradient. This is just a hunch at this point, but so far, the convective degradation seems to be in line with what is typically observed during eyewall replacement, where the most robust warming occurs directly adjacent to the eye.
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Kingarabian wrote:Latest frame shows cooling tops to the north once again.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 937.2mb/129.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.4 6.4
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km
Center Temp : -1.2C Cloud Region Temp : -70.3C
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