Area of Disturbed Weather in the NW Caribbean

[TheStormExpert]

South Florida must have a shield over it to deflect any type of rain that we might get.I say they might lower the rain chances to 20 percent by wed/thurs time frame.This is just an opinion.

I agree! It's aggravating and disappointing to here all this hype two to three days ago about a good deal of Tropical Moisture heading our way come mid/late week in S. FL for the models to only back away nearly completely a day or so later.

What will it take to actually get some decent rain event during the actual RAINY SEASON other than a Tropical Cyclone threat?

I mean if Texas can get deluged with upwards of 30 inches of rain in May alone allowing for a complete Drought Buster why can't we just get 3-6 inches of rain? I can already sense that this will probably be one of the driest Rainy Seasons here in S. FL at least in years!

[jlauderdal]

And just a few days ago, So Fla was in for a possible 3 to 10 inches of rain. This happens every year. Why do I fall for it? lol

watch the euro, stay away from the gfs outside 72H...gfs needs a tropical win before it is to be taken seriously

It got Ana right about 2 weeks out, but that is FAR from enough for it to earn it's full trust back it once had.

2 weeks out iss luck IMO...when it nails a system we will know it...sofla will get its rain. not the first time the rainy season has been delayed

[ronjon]

7 day QPF totals for the entire FL peninsula are greater than 1.5 inches with highest totals of 2 inches or more in SE FL and NE FL. Hang in there east coasters, summer rains not associated with a tropical cyclone are on the way.

[psyclone]

South Florida must have a shield over it to deflect any type of rain that we might get.I say they might lower the rain chances to 20 percent by wed/thurs time frame.This is just an opinion.

I agree! It's aggravating and disappointing to here all this hype two to three days ago about a good deal of Tropical Moisture heading our way come mid/late week in S. FL for the models to only back away nearly completely a day or so later.

What will it take to actually get some decent rain event during the actual RAINY SEASON other than a Tropical Cyclone threat?

I mean if Texas can get deluged with upwards of 30 inches of rain in May alone allowing for a complete Drought Buster why can't we just get 3-6 inches of rain? I can already sense that this will probably be one of the driest Rainy Seasons here in S. FL at least in years!

The rainy season is on. Just because the sprinkler hasn't hit your backyard yet doesn't mean it won't. Today the interior is getting hammered with huge storms. these are areas that up until today had been missing out. it's only a matter of time before your number comes up. once the atlantic gets a touch warmer an easterly flow will=nocturnal and morning rains for you guys and a westerly flow will focus the big late day boomers on your side of the state. Peninsular Florida almost always gets a ton of water in the June-Sept timeframe and I'm confident this year will be no exception.

[gatorcane]

Three global models show development within 5 days or less. Convection on the increase in the nw Caribbean an no mention by nhc? Goes to show the weight given to the European models (ECMWF and UKMET).

[fci]

South Florida must have a shield over it to deflect any type of rain that we might get.I say they might lower the rain chances to 20 percent by wed/thurs time frame.This is just an opinion.

Maybe behind a developing system we will get west or southwest winds aloft and the PM storms will fire up and give the East Coast some much needed rain.

[Hammy]

Three global models show development within 5 days or less. Convection on the increase in the nw Caribbean an no mention by nhc? Goes to show the weight given to the European models (ECMWF and UKMET).

Global models have awful track records though, especially the last two years. As the GFS has undergone major upgrades recently, and correctly called both Ana and Andres (with general accuracy on intensity) and has had no recurring phantom storms yet, if this does develop it'll probably give more weight to the GFS with future systems.

[TheStormExpert]

South Florida must have a shield over it to deflect any type of rain that we might get.I say they might lower the rain chances to 20 percent by wed/thurs time frame.This is just an opinion.

Maybe behind a developing system we will get west or southwest winds aloft and the PM storms will fire up and give the East Coast some much needed rain.

One can only hope and assume that will happen. IMO that is probably all we will see over the next 5-7 days, afternoon/evening storms focused on Florida's East Coast instead of West Coast.

[gatorcane]

latest saved image with deepening convection over the NW Caribbean:

[TheStormExpert]

Three global models show development within 5 days or less. Convection on the increase in the nw Caribbean an no mention by nhc? Goes to show the weight given to the European models (ECMWF and UKMET).

Global models have awful track records though, especially the last two years. As the GFS has undergone major upgrades recently, and correctly called both Ana and Andres (with general accuracy on intensity) and has had no recurring phantom storms yet, if this does develop it'll probably give more weight to the GFS with future systems.

Plus earlier today on TWC I was listening to Michael Lowry mention how shear very well could be a big inhibitor towards Tropical Development in the Bahamas Vicinity or off the SE U.S. Coast.

[ronjon]

At the very least, the mid level circulation over the northern GOM will pull copious amounts of moisture over the peninsula this week from the NW Caribbean. Still have my doubts regarding any organized system given the Euros persistence toward no development and hostile environment.

[OuterBanker]

latest saved image with deepening convection over the NW Caribbean:

http://i.imgur.com/qEaZuxL.jpg

And look at all the convection on the east coast of Fla. Hope it's producing some muc need rain.

[OuterBanker]

Crazy Canadian still develops it. But,even it is off the coast now.

[SouthDadeFish]

It should be noted that the MJO is in a favorable phase for convection in the Western ATL:



This can also be seen in the velocity potential anomaly forecasts:



Convection also looks to be forced by a digging upper level trough, which moves over the Gulf in the next 5 days.

As a result, I would not be surprised to see development in either the NW Caribbean or NW ATL over the next 5-10 days. Keep in mind that if anything does form, it will probably be highly asymmetric due to the presence of dry mid-upper level air associated with the trough, as well as strong westerly winds in the upper levels, also due to the trough.

[Hammy]

latest GFS confirms phantom storm as there is no longer any development, which I believe leaves just the CMC developing anything now.

edit: gone from all 00z runs

[jlauderdal]

South Florida must have a shield over it to deflect any type of rain that we might get.I say they might lower the rain chances to 20 percent by wed/thurs time frame.This is just an opinion.

Maybe behind a developing system we will get west or southwest winds aloft and the PM storms will fire up and give the East Coast some much needed rain.

One can only hope and assume that will happen. IMO that is probably all we will see over the next 5-7 days, afternoon/evening storms focused on Florida's East Coast instead of West Coast.

SE FL best shot today and weds then diminishing chances as we move forward...be interesting to see where we are on thursday; the setup doesn't even look that promising with the main activity pinned off the coast could really steal most of the energy and turn this into a non-event..severe potential is about nil..after this it looks like ridging returns and dry on the east side

[wxman57]

Perhaps some rain for Florida at least, but a TS is looking less likely. Time for you guys to get some rain. I measured 18" in May and close to 40" so far this year. Take the rain, please!

[tropicwatch]

Depending how far the cold front progresses coming through the southeast before it goes stationary should be a big factor on how much rain there is in S. FL.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I am starting to wonder if we will see any rain even a drop out of this. Watching the radar all day rain comes up from the keys splits die's out and no rain. Have not gotten one single drop here in Westchester by FIU.

[jlauderdal]

I am starting to wonder if we will see any rain even a drop out of this. Watching the radar all day rain comes up from the keys splits die's out and no rain. Have not gotten one single drop here in Westchester by FIU.

tomorrow looks better but look at my post from earlier today, i thought this might happen..its just not a great setup for SE FL, lots of cloud cover, lift is to the west and south..maybe tomorrow or even later in the week if we can get some sun