Texas Spring-2015
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Re: Texas Spring-2015
I'm getting lightning and loud thunder again after nothing for an hour and a half... the storms are halfway to Austin now. What a strange night. I did not expect this level of activity.
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#neversummer
Another Soaker
Sounds like the same type of storms I got on May 12, 2000. The lightning never ended on this cluster back then and it was highly unique similar to what is being described here.
This may not be widespread flooding, but there is a slow moving MCS out there drenching the soaked areas that got flooded:
If this is a quiet period, Texas is in huge trouble. El Reno 2013 had about 7000 J/kg for CAPE. I am interested to see the drought monitor for this Thursday's update, I think its gone for all intents and purposes.
Ntxw wrote:Quieter day today in terms of widespread flooding. However it is a high cape day so any storm that pops out of the dryline will be nasty as there will be 4000-5000 (J/kg) of cape. That is very high. For example days with such high cape values (4000+ J/kg) relative to our region includes, but not only, El Reno 2013, May 3rd 1999, Jarrell 1997. Luckily we don't have the screaming shear above.
This may not be widespread flooding, but there is a slow moving MCS out there drenching the soaked areas that got flooded:
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0137
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1124 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015
*Cut*
WHILE THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS A SIGNAL FOR LOCAL 2-4" OF RAIN
IN THIS REGION, THE CURRENT LOCATION AND BREADTH OF THE
THUNDERSTORM BAND HAS EXCEEDED ALL MODEL EXPECTATIONS. RECENT RAP
FORECASTS INDICATE STEADY STATE 850 HPA INFLOW OVERNIGHT, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
CONTINUES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST. CELL TRAINING/MERGERS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN HERE. WHILE HOURLY RAIN RATES HAVE RECENTLY NEARED
3" PER RADAR ESTIMATES, ONCE THE COMPLEX STARTS TO FORWARD
PROPAGATE, RAIN RATES OF UP TO 2" CAN BE GENERALLY EXPECTED. MUCH
OF THIS AREA JUST RAINED HEAVILY YESTERDAY, SO SOILS ARE
SATURATED. FLASH FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR IN THIS REGION.
ROTH
If this is a quiet period, Texas is in huge trouble. El Reno 2013 had about 7000 J/kg for CAPE. I am interested to see the drought monitor for this Thursday's update, I think its gone for all intents and purposes.
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- Category 5
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- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
I enjoyed the EWX morning discussion (last 2 paragraphs). I must say I agree that I am also looking forward to a period of benign weather, as compared to May, and ESPECIALLY this past Memorial Day weekend! Given the record-breaking storms, I think we could all use a break to recoup and clean up.
000
FXUS64 KEWX 270908
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
408 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN I35 CORRIDOR
IN MAINLY WILLIAMSON...LEE...AND FAYETTE COUNTIES THIS MORNING
PRODUCING SOME MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREA SOUNDINGS
WERE SHOWING STABLIZATION AND MID LEVEL WARMING WHICH HAS
EFFECTIVELY LIMITED THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THESE STORMS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING. AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THIS ACTIVITY MOVES OFF...THIS ENERGY SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST
BRUSHING THE EASTERNMOST ZONES THROUGH MID DAY. THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS LOW.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...HI RES MODELS ALL HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS RATHER POORLY AS NONE OF THEM ADEQUATELY CAPTURED
THE OVERNIGHT MCS. SO NOT MUCH STOCK WAS PUT INTO THEIR
DEPICTIONS. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY REMAINS FOR A MORE
ISOLATED STORM THREAT TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATED MORE MINOR SHORTWAVE PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH ONE UP NEAR FORT WORTH AND YET ANOTHER OVER THE BIG
BEND. WITH THE DRY LINE RECEDING WESTWARD IN THE MODELS...THINK
OUTFLOWS WILL BE THE DECIDER FOR CI THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONE
SUCH OUTFLOW WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THIS MORNING AND AM
A BIT CONCERNED SOME DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG IT TODAY SO
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OUT THERE AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE NEW MEXICAN
ROCKIES AND INTERACT WITH THE DRYLINE OUT WEST TO DEVELOP A MORE
ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SEVERE...COULD ORGANIZE INTO A STRONG LINE OF
STORMS THAT WOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLATEAU COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.6-1.7 RANGE...THINK
THESE COULD BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINER. GOOD NEWS IS THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD BE LOSING INTENSITY AS
IT DISPLACES FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MUCH LESS ACTIVE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WHEN COMPARED TO...WELL...MAY. THE
JUNE 1 ECMWF SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND KEEPS THE UPPER JET STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS LIKE WE HAVE BEEN SEEING OVER THE LAST MONTH...LOOKS MUCH
LESS LIKELY.
WE AS METEOROLOGISTS ENJOY INTERESTING PATTERNS AND CHALLENGING
FORECASTS TO A DEGREE. BUT WE WILL BE JOINING YOU IN A COLLECTIVE
HALLELUJAH IF THINGS ARE MORE BENIGN FOR THE EXTENDED GIVEN THE
LAST MONTH AND ESPECIALLY THE LAST WEEKEND. LUCKILY THAT SEEMS TO
BE THE CASE FOR NOW.
&&
000
FXUS64 KEWX 270908
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
408 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN I35 CORRIDOR
IN MAINLY WILLIAMSON...LEE...AND FAYETTE COUNTIES THIS MORNING
PRODUCING SOME MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREA SOUNDINGS
WERE SHOWING STABLIZATION AND MID LEVEL WARMING WHICH HAS
EFFECTIVELY LIMITED THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THESE STORMS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING. AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THIS ACTIVITY MOVES OFF...THIS ENERGY SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST
BRUSHING THE EASTERNMOST ZONES THROUGH MID DAY. THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS LOW.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...HI RES MODELS ALL HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS RATHER POORLY AS NONE OF THEM ADEQUATELY CAPTURED
THE OVERNIGHT MCS. SO NOT MUCH STOCK WAS PUT INTO THEIR
DEPICTIONS. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY REMAINS FOR A MORE
ISOLATED STORM THREAT TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATED MORE MINOR SHORTWAVE PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH ONE UP NEAR FORT WORTH AND YET ANOTHER OVER THE BIG
BEND. WITH THE DRY LINE RECEDING WESTWARD IN THE MODELS...THINK
OUTFLOWS WILL BE THE DECIDER FOR CI THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONE
SUCH OUTFLOW WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THIS MORNING AND AM
A BIT CONCERNED SOME DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG IT TODAY SO
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OUT THERE AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE NEW MEXICAN
ROCKIES AND INTERACT WITH THE DRYLINE OUT WEST TO DEVELOP A MORE
ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SEVERE...COULD ORGANIZE INTO A STRONG LINE OF
STORMS THAT WOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLATEAU COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.6-1.7 RANGE...THINK
THESE COULD BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINER. GOOD NEWS IS THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD BE LOSING INTENSITY AS
IT DISPLACES FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MUCH LESS ACTIVE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WHEN COMPARED TO...WELL...MAY. THE
JUNE 1 ECMWF SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND KEEPS THE UPPER JET STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS LIKE WE HAVE BEEN SEEING OVER THE LAST MONTH...LOOKS MUCH
LESS LIKELY.
WE AS METEOROLOGISTS ENJOY INTERESTING PATTERNS AND CHALLENGING
FORECASTS TO A DEGREE. BUT WE WILL BE JOINING YOU IN A COLLECTIVE
HALLELUJAH IF THINGS ARE MORE BENIGN FOR THE EXTENDED GIVEN THE
LAST MONTH AND ESPECIALLY THE LAST WEEKEND. LUCKILY THAT SEEMS TO
BE THE CASE FOR NOW.
&&
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- TeamPlayersBlue
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Here we go again for Houston. Eastern line of storms is moving through but the back end of the storms is hanging back
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- gboudx
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Re: Texas Spring-2015
Brent wrote:I'm getting lightning and loud thunder again after nothing for an hour and a half... the storms are halfway to Austin now. What a strange night. I did not expect this level of activity.
I was awakened by the thunder and also hail hitting our windows. When I checked the radar I saw the line of storms far south of us and moving south. I kept refreshing the page to make sure it wasn't stuck. Must've been huge anvils to drop hail like it was.
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- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
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Re: Texas Spring-2015
Good, more rain. Things were getting a bit dry in Houston. Haven't had any rain since the 10" over 24 hours ago...
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FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
654 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015
TXC139-271400-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0112.000000T0000Z-150527T1400Z/
/00000.2.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ELLIS TX-
654 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A DAM BREAK REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900
AM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY...
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS REPORTED THE IMMINENT FAILURE OF PADERA
LAKE DAM!
PADERA LAKE DAM IS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CITY OF MIDLOTHIAN...
JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 287 NEAR KIMBLE ROAD. THE DAM IS BEGINNING TO
FAIL AND WILL GIVE WAY THIS MORNING.
THE FLOOD WATERS FROM THIS LAKE WOULD RAPIDLY SURGE INTO NEWTON
BRANCH...THEN INTO COTTONWOOD CREEK ALONG HIGHWAY 287. THE HIGHWAY
IS BEING CLOSED...AND TRAFFIC IS BEING DIVERTED. FROM COTTONWOOD
CREEK...THE FLOOD WAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOAP CREEK...THEN BRIEFLY INTO
MOUNTAIN CREEK...BEFORE FLOWING INTO THE SOUTH END OF JOE POOL LAKE
NEAR BRITTON PARK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
654 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015
TXC139-271400-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0112.000000T0000Z-150527T1400Z/
/00000.2.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ELLIS TX-
654 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A DAM BREAK REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900
AM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY...
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS REPORTED THE IMMINENT FAILURE OF PADERA
LAKE DAM!
PADERA LAKE DAM IS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CITY OF MIDLOTHIAN...
JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 287 NEAR KIMBLE ROAD. THE DAM IS BEGINNING TO
FAIL AND WILL GIVE WAY THIS MORNING.
THE FLOOD WATERS FROM THIS LAKE WOULD RAPIDLY SURGE INTO NEWTON
BRANCH...THEN INTO COTTONWOOD CREEK ALONG HIGHWAY 287. THE HIGHWAY
IS BEING CLOSED...AND TRAFFIC IS BEING DIVERTED. FROM COTTONWOOD
CREEK...THE FLOOD WAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOAP CREEK...THEN BRIEFLY INTO
MOUNTAIN CREEK...BEFORE FLOWING INTO THE SOUTH END OF JOE POOL LAKE
NEAR BRITTON PARK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Spring-2015
wxman57 wrote:Good, more rain. Things were getting a bit dry in Houston. Haven't had any rain since the 10" over 24 hours ago...
You might want to invest in one of these, how else will you get your biking in?

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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
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- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Spring-2015
My water doesn't look as inviting. Rode about 6 miles down the Brays Bayou trail yesterday after work.
The first two pictures below are at the 6 mile point in my ride where the upper trail at the top of the bayou's bank connects to the lower trail. Right past that bridge the trail stopped for me. At that point, the water would have been over 10 ft above my head that morning.


The two pictures below are about 2 miles from my house at a street called "Rice". The water reached nearly 2 feet above the upper trail there, flooding many homes. The HEB on the south side of the bayou had about 3 feet of water in it. Some good friends of mine in the neighborhood behind HEB lost 3 cars and had about 3-4 inches of water in their home.


The first two pictures below are at the 6 mile point in my ride where the upper trail at the top of the bayou's bank connects to the lower trail. Right past that bridge the trail stopped for me. At that point, the water would have been over 10 ft above my head that morning.
The two pictures below are about 2 miles from my house at a street called "Rice". The water reached nearly 2 feet above the upper trail there, flooding many homes. The HEB on the south side of the bayou had about 3 feet of water in it. Some good friends of mine in the neighborhood behind HEB lost 3 cars and had about 3-4 inches of water in their home.
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- TeamPlayersBlue
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I have friends in the same neighborhood. Helped them cleanup yesterday after they had about 7 inches in their home. About how long does it take for the Bayou to get down to normal?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22979
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:I have friends in the same neighborhood. Helped them cleanup yesterday after they had about 7 inches in their home. About how long does it take for the Bayou to get down to normal?
The bayou rises and falls VERY quickly. I've seen it rise 5-8 feet in a few minutes after a heavy thunderstorm passed a few miles upstream. Once that surge of water from that storm passed the water dropped back to normal. If no more water is feeding the western part of the watershed then it drops quickly.
There's a camera along the bayou/bike trail across from the Ben Taub entrance. Yesterday, the level reached 19ft there. Today it's at 1 ft.
http://fas3.flood-alert.org/#Bayou%20Cam:Cam%20One%20%28large%29
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Watching the invests down in the EPAC. Until then..


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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
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Re: Texas Spring-2015
wxman57 wrote:Good, more rain. Things were getting a bit dry in Houston. Haven't had any rain since the 10" over 24 hours ago...


Sorry, I'm not laughing at the horrible flooding situation, just the comment. I literally chuckled out loud. Seriously, you guys need to get a rain break!
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- Annie Oakley
- Category 5
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- Location: Texas
Re: Texas Spring-2015
lol-and I liked weatherdude's 'benign weather' comment-as if there were such a thing in Texas.
Stock up on mosquito repellant everyone-
Check out the latest situation report from Tx OEM from this am:
http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/
Stock up on mosquito repellant everyone-
Check out the latest situation report from Tx OEM from this am:
http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/
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- Annie Oakley
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- Location: Texas
Texas Border Patrol making changes in advance of weather threats:
http://www.valleymorningstar.com/news/l ... e75f9.html
http://www.valleymorningstar.com/news/l ... e75f9.html
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- gboudx
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Posting this lesson from Steve McCauley regarding what happened in DFW last evening/night. This is what I love about this guy. If you want to see the accompanying graphics, you can go to his Facebook page. https://www.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mccauley
PART I: The Outlook
Yesterday, the forecast on this page called for severe thunderstorms to fire in the west half of north Texas with large hail. high winds, and tornadoes. This, of course, is what happened.
Some of the storms were then supposed to move into the Metroplex but once getting past Fort Worth were expected to weaken rapidly due the building cap over the eastern half of the area. This, of course, is not what happened!
Before continuing, it may come as a surprise to know that many of our computer models kept storms out of the Metroplex altogether. Even the European Model predicted not a drop of rain would fall in the Metroplex or anywhere across the eastern half of north Texas! But that didn't look reasonable given the expected strength of the storms.
But when the Texas Tech model kept the bulk of the storms in the western half of the area, I was inclined to agree (no bias there, right?!?)
wink emoticon
So why did the math fail to capture the storms that would form in the SE quadrant of the area? Read on if you wish ... Part II Coming Up !
Part II: Why Were The Storms To The West Supposed To Weaken If They Tried To Move Into The Eastern Half of North Texas?
As most of you know who follow this page, it was the cap that was expected to build back in across the eastern half of north Texas Tuesday evening which would force the storms to our west to weaken rapidly as they moved past Fort Worth.
But the fact is, the storms out west NEVER made it here. The storms we saw in the Metroplex fired up on top of us. They didn't move in, they exploded directly overhead!
How was this possible? Did the cap not build in as expected?
Here is what may be the shocking answer: No. The cap returned just as the math predicted!
This graphic shows the results of the data analysis from the weather balloon that was launched from Fort Worth at 7 PM yesterday evening. Without going into too much detail, I want to draw your attention to the number listed at the top of the graphic, labeled CIN. This is called CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. You can think of it as CAP STRENGTH.
It is an intriguing mathematical formula, but generally speaking (and there are exceptions), a CIN value of at least 75 is often considered very detrimental to thunderstorm development. As you can see, the CIN value over the Metroplex was 90 !
So yes, the cap was significant over the Metroplex at the time storms began popping "all over the place" ! How is this even remotely possible?
Stay tuned for the answer coming up in Part III !
Part III: Why Storms Exploded in a Capped Environment over the Metroplex.
The first "red flags" that showed up suggesting the cap was in danger of being overwhelmed appeared about an hour before it did. I made a passing reference to this possibility in my posts last night.
Now, before I go on, I realize that changing my forecast less than an hour before storms started popping is not really much advance notice, but what I saw happening was not anticipated. I have seen it happen only a handful of times in my career, but each time, it has lead to explosive thunderstorm development.
So what was this phenomenon that overwhelmed our cap?
This graphic is a cross sectional view of the radar. Think of it as what you would see if you were standing in Waxahachie and looking north towards the city of Dallas. You can see some very light blue radar echoes sweeping from left to right (i.e., west to east) high overhead Dallas County.
What were these "blue radar echoes" ? It was not raining anywhere at the time in Dallas County. No big surprise ... for you will note that these radar echoes were tens of thousands of feet above the ground! So what were they?
They were ICE CRYSTALS streaming tens of thousands of feet overhead, blown by upper-level winds from the tops of the severe thunderstorms to the west over 100 miles away! These ice crystals were falling through the atmosphere, all of which were evaporating (or more accurately, SUBLIMATING) before reaching the ground.
Ice crystals that sublimate in the middle of the atmosphere have a dramatic COOLING effect. This process was literally chilling the mid-levels off the atmosphere effectively removing the cap from the top down !!
This phenomenon was not seen by any of the morning computer model runs. Indeed, I would not even know how to predict such an occurrence much more than a few hours in advance, but there it was.
As the ice crystals continued to fall, the cap was being whittled away until it was nothing, and then we saw a rapid, complete overturning of the atmosphere resulting in widespread thunderstorm development turning our expected 30% coverage of storms into 80% !
Conclusion Coming Up In Part IV
Part IV: The ReCap (no pun intended)
Ice crystals descending from high-altitude thunderstorm anvil clouds that were being blown over the Metroplex by high-altitude winds last night, caused the mid-levels of the atmosphere over the Metroplex to chill dramatically creating a very unstable atmosphere. This effectively removed the capping inversion that was trying to build over the eastern half of north Texas yesterday evening.
With the cap removed from the top down, there was nothing to stop the complete overturning of the atmosphere which resulted in rapid-fire thunderstorm development over the Metroplex.
Therefore, the intense thunderstorms that brought high winds and flooding rains to the eastern half of the Metroplex last night were brought to you by the littlest things that went undetected until about an hour before the storms went nuts.
If interested in the complete details on this phenomenon, please see Parts I - III of this analysis!
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- PTrackerLA
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- Location: Lafayette, LA
Re: Texas Spring-2015
The MCS that originated in the DFW area came through my area this morning with an intense line of severe thunderstorms. None of the models showed this happening either. Just goes to show you that the atmosphere plays by it's own rules sometimes!
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- Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
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- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
As if they don't have enough problems to deal with down there, a TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR BLANCO:
-----
TORNADO WARNING
TXC031-271730-
/O.NEW.KEWX.TO.W.0039.150527T1647Z-150527T1730Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1147 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL BLANCO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
* AT 1146 AM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER TWIN
SISTERS...OR NEAR BLANCO...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO JUST EAST OF U.S.
281 NEAR LITTLE BLANCO ROAD.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BLANCO AND PAYTON AROUND 1230 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ISSUED
FOR THE SAME AREA.
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3014 9830 3013 9826 3000 9834 2998 9836
3000 9844 3015 9844
TIME...MOT...LOC 1646Z 197DEG 5KT 3002 9840
TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.00IN
-----
TORNADO WARNING
TXC031-271730-
/O.NEW.KEWX.TO.W.0039.150527T1647Z-150527T1730Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1147 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL BLANCO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
* AT 1146 AM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER TWIN
SISTERS...OR NEAR BLANCO...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO JUST EAST OF U.S.
281 NEAR LITTLE BLANCO ROAD.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BLANCO AND PAYTON AROUND 1230 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ISSUED
FOR THE SAME AREA.
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3014 9830 3013 9826 3000 9834 2998 9836
3000 9844 3015 9844
TIME...MOT...LOC 1646Z 197DEG 5KT 3002 9840
TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.00IN
0 likes
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Tornadoes in North Texas on Memorial Day. Of note, so called "weak tornadoes" can and do kill.
The Milam County tornado was rated EF-2 and yet it killed one and injured five others.
The Grayson County tornado was rated EF-0, but a little further up the road after it crossed into Bryan County, it killed a 48-year old woman in a manufactured home.
-----
000
NOUS44 KFWD 270136
PNSFWD
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271345-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
836 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015
...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR MAY 25 2015 TORNADOES...
.OVERVIEW...A SURVEY TEAM FOUND TWO SEPARATE TORNADIC DAMAGE
TRACKS IN LAMPASAS COUNTY. ONE SHORT TRACK WAS FOUND NORTHEAST OF
LAMPASAS AND THE SECOND TRACK WAS FOUND NORTHWEST OF KEMPNER. SOME
RESIDENTIAL AND NUMEROUS TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED WITH BOTH TORNADOES.
THE FIRST TORNADO OCCURRED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF CR 3050 AND
CR 3070. THE SECOND TORNADO STARTED NEAR THE LAMPASAS RIVER BRIDGE
ON FM 2313 WHERE IT DAMAGED NUMEROUS TREES...AND TRACKED
NORTHEAST...DAMAGING TWO HOMES NEAR THE END OF THE TRACK NEAR CR
3210 AND FM 2313. BOTH OF THESE TORNADOES RECEIVED EF-1 RATINGS.
THESE TWO TORNADOES OCCURRED FROM THE SAME STORM.
THE STORM THAT PRODUCED THE TWO TORNADOES IN LAMPASAS COUNTY ALSO
PRODUCED AN EF-1 TORNADO NEAR PIDCOKE IN CORYELL COUNTY. THE
TORNADO STARTED JUST SOUTH OF PIDCOKE AND MOVED IN A GENERALLY
NORTH DIRECTION BEFORE HITTING THE PIDCOKE CEMETERY AND DAMAGING
NEARLY ALL TREES AT THE CEMETERY. ACROSS THE CREEK FROM THE
CEMETERY...SEVERAL HOMES WERE DAMAGED...AND THEN THE TRACK OF THE
TORNADO BECAME MORE NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING NEAR SHELL
MOUNTAIN ROAD.
ANOTHER SURVEY TEAM FOUND EF-2 DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH A TORNADO
IN MILAM COUNTY. THE STORM BEGAN NEAR THE PETTIBONE COMMUNITY AND
TRACKED TO THE NORTHEAST FOR APPROXIMATELY 9 MILES. ONE FATALITY
AND FIVE TOTAL INJURIES OCCURRED WITH THIS TORNADO. EF-2 DAMAGE
WAS FOUND TO TWO MANUFACTURED HOMES...ONE OF WHICH WAS ALMOST
COMPLETELY DESTROYED AND THE OTHER WAS TURNED UPSIDE DOWN.
A BRIEF EF-0 TORNADO WAS ALSO DETERMINED IN THE CITY OF
SHERMAN...JUST EAST OF DOWNTOWN. ONE INJURY OCCURRED WITH THIS
TORNADO.
.NORTHEAST OF LAMPASAS TORNADO...
RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 85-90 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.4 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 50 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0
START DATE: MAY 25 2015
START TIME: 141 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 6 NE LAMPASAS / LAMPASAS / TX
START LAT/LON: 31.10 / -98.09
END DATE: MAY 25 2015
END TIME: 142 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 7 NE LAMPASAS / LAMPASAS / TX
END LAT/LON: 31.09 / -98.08
.NORTHWEST OF KEMPNER TORNADO...
RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90-95 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 1.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 180 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0
START DATE: MAY 25 2015
START TIME: 142 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 4 NW KEMPNER / LAMPASAS / TX
START LAT/LON: 31.12 / -98.06
END DATE: MAY 25 2015
END TIME: 146 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 4 N OF KEMPNER / LAMPASAS / TX
END_LAT/LON: 31.13 / -98.04
.PIDCOKE TORNADO...
RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 100-105 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 5.7 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 600 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0
START DATE: MAY 25 2015
START TIME: 206 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 3 SW PIDCOKE / CORYELL / TX
START LAT/LON: 31.24 / -97.93
END DATE: MAY 25 2015
END TIME: 213 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 2 NE PIDCOKE / CORYELL / TX
END_LAT/LON: 31.30 / -97.87
.SHERMAN/DENISON TORNADO...
RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 80-85 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 5.2 MILES NON-CONTINUOUS
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 50 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 1
START DATE: MAY 25 2015
START TIME: 225 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 2 NE SHERMAN / GRAYSON / TX
START LAT/LON: 33.67 / -96.59
END DATE: MAY 25 2015
END TIME: 230 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 2 SSE DENISON / GRAYSON / TX
END_LAT/LON: 33.72 / -96.53
.MILAM COUNTY TORNADO...
RATING: EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 120-125 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 9 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 400 YARDS
FATALITIES: 1
INJURIES: 5
START DATE: MAY 25 2015
START TIME: 355 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 9 SW CAMERON / MILAM / TX
START LAT/LON: 30.82 / -97.12
END DATE: MAY 25 2015
END TIME: 410 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 5 NW CAMERON / MILAM / TX
END_LAT/LON: 30.92 / -97.02
EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES
TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.
EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH
NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.
$$
BRADSHAW/CAVANAUGH/DUNN/FOX/GUDMESTAD/STALLEY
The Milam County tornado was rated EF-2 and yet it killed one and injured five others.
The Grayson County tornado was rated EF-0, but a little further up the road after it crossed into Bryan County, it killed a 48-year old woman in a manufactured home.
-----
000
NOUS44 KFWD 270136
PNSFWD
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271345-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
836 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015
...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR MAY 25 2015 TORNADOES...
.OVERVIEW...A SURVEY TEAM FOUND TWO SEPARATE TORNADIC DAMAGE
TRACKS IN LAMPASAS COUNTY. ONE SHORT TRACK WAS FOUND NORTHEAST OF
LAMPASAS AND THE SECOND TRACK WAS FOUND NORTHWEST OF KEMPNER. SOME
RESIDENTIAL AND NUMEROUS TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED WITH BOTH TORNADOES.
THE FIRST TORNADO OCCURRED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF CR 3050 AND
CR 3070. THE SECOND TORNADO STARTED NEAR THE LAMPASAS RIVER BRIDGE
ON FM 2313 WHERE IT DAMAGED NUMEROUS TREES...AND TRACKED
NORTHEAST...DAMAGING TWO HOMES NEAR THE END OF THE TRACK NEAR CR
3210 AND FM 2313. BOTH OF THESE TORNADOES RECEIVED EF-1 RATINGS.
THESE TWO TORNADOES OCCURRED FROM THE SAME STORM.
THE STORM THAT PRODUCED THE TWO TORNADOES IN LAMPASAS COUNTY ALSO
PRODUCED AN EF-1 TORNADO NEAR PIDCOKE IN CORYELL COUNTY. THE
TORNADO STARTED JUST SOUTH OF PIDCOKE AND MOVED IN A GENERALLY
NORTH DIRECTION BEFORE HITTING THE PIDCOKE CEMETERY AND DAMAGING
NEARLY ALL TREES AT THE CEMETERY. ACROSS THE CREEK FROM THE
CEMETERY...SEVERAL HOMES WERE DAMAGED...AND THEN THE TRACK OF THE
TORNADO BECAME MORE NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING NEAR SHELL
MOUNTAIN ROAD.
ANOTHER SURVEY TEAM FOUND EF-2 DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH A TORNADO
IN MILAM COUNTY. THE STORM BEGAN NEAR THE PETTIBONE COMMUNITY AND
TRACKED TO THE NORTHEAST FOR APPROXIMATELY 9 MILES. ONE FATALITY
AND FIVE TOTAL INJURIES OCCURRED WITH THIS TORNADO. EF-2 DAMAGE
WAS FOUND TO TWO MANUFACTURED HOMES...ONE OF WHICH WAS ALMOST
COMPLETELY DESTROYED AND THE OTHER WAS TURNED UPSIDE DOWN.
A BRIEF EF-0 TORNADO WAS ALSO DETERMINED IN THE CITY OF
SHERMAN...JUST EAST OF DOWNTOWN. ONE INJURY OCCURRED WITH THIS
TORNADO.
.NORTHEAST OF LAMPASAS TORNADO...
RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 85-90 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.4 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 50 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0
START DATE: MAY 25 2015
START TIME: 141 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 6 NE LAMPASAS / LAMPASAS / TX
START LAT/LON: 31.10 / -98.09
END DATE: MAY 25 2015
END TIME: 142 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 7 NE LAMPASAS / LAMPASAS / TX
END LAT/LON: 31.09 / -98.08
.NORTHWEST OF KEMPNER TORNADO...
RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90-95 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 1.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 180 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0
START DATE: MAY 25 2015
START TIME: 142 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 4 NW KEMPNER / LAMPASAS / TX
START LAT/LON: 31.12 / -98.06
END DATE: MAY 25 2015
END TIME: 146 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 4 N OF KEMPNER / LAMPASAS / TX
END_LAT/LON: 31.13 / -98.04
.PIDCOKE TORNADO...
RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 100-105 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 5.7 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 600 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0
START DATE: MAY 25 2015
START TIME: 206 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 3 SW PIDCOKE / CORYELL / TX
START LAT/LON: 31.24 / -97.93
END DATE: MAY 25 2015
END TIME: 213 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 2 NE PIDCOKE / CORYELL / TX
END_LAT/LON: 31.30 / -97.87
.SHERMAN/DENISON TORNADO...
RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 80-85 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 5.2 MILES NON-CONTINUOUS
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 50 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 1
START DATE: MAY 25 2015
START TIME: 225 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 2 NE SHERMAN / GRAYSON / TX
START LAT/LON: 33.67 / -96.59
END DATE: MAY 25 2015
END TIME: 230 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 2 SSE DENISON / GRAYSON / TX
END_LAT/LON: 33.72 / -96.53
.MILAM COUNTY TORNADO...
RATING: EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 120-125 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 9 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 400 YARDS
FATALITIES: 1
INJURIES: 5
START DATE: MAY 25 2015
START TIME: 355 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 9 SW CAMERON / MILAM / TX
START LAT/LON: 30.82 / -97.12
END DATE: MAY 25 2015
END TIME: 410 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 5 NW CAMERON / MILAM / TX
END_LAT/LON: 30.92 / -97.02
EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES
TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.
EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH
NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.
$$
BRADSHAW/CAVANAUGH/DUNN/FOX/GUDMESTAD/STALLEY
0 likes
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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