2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[wxman57]

1991 and 1957 are my primary analog years based on SSTAs with the -AMO, +PDO and ENSO and based on that the east coast and western GOM may be the worry spots based on those analogs and one thing of note is that in those seasons all the deep tropical activity was depreciated while the main developments were from stuff that formed on fronts like

1991
Ana
Bob
Claudette
Grace
Perfect Storm

1957
Bertha
Debbie
Frieda

and out of all the storms that formed in those 2 seasons only 2 formed in the MDR with Erika in 1991 and Carrie in 1957 so based on that watch out for even weak frontal systems as they also can cause significant to major hurricane landfalls during EL NINOS

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Don't forget the worst storm of 1957 - Audrey, the only hurricane to affect the U.S. that year. Audrey killed over 300 people in Cameron Parish, LA.

[gatorcane]

Convection over Africa is looking quite robust lately for this time of year. Could it be an early indicator of an active wave train off Africa this year? We can note the ITCZ is starting to make it's yearly treck north too. Saved images below:

[TheStormExpert]

I'm guessing it might be a passing Kelvin Wave? We saw these quick bursts of convection last season for a few days at a time at most.

[cycloneye]

Interesting data with El Nino around.

@philklotzbach · 9m9 minutes ago Tracks of Atl hurricanes at Cat. 3+ strength in 5 strongest Aug-Oct El Ninos since 50. One US MH landfall (Betsy-65)

[cycloneye]

Hey look what we have here! Our first Tropical wave but let's not celebrate much about it.You know what I mean.

[cycloneye]

Hey look what we have here! Our first Tropical wave but let's not celebrate much about it.You know what I mean.

http://i.imgur.com/qYpYHtx.gif

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EARLIER TODAY
EMBEDDED IN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE SSMI
TPW IMAGERY. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS LOCATED FROM 02N TO 10N NEAR 18W.

[ninel conde]

LC continues to say the experts are underplaying the upcoming cane season, including cape verde storms.

[WPBWeather]

LC continues to say the experts are underplaying the upcoming cane season, including cape verde storms.

Yikes! If you are bullish on the season then we may be doomed here in FL!

[Hurricaneman]

LC continues to say the experts are underplaying the upcoming cane season, including cape verde storms.

Yikes! If you are bullish on the season then we may be doomed here in FL!

Larry Cosgrove's forecast assumes this turns into a La Nina during the summer which IMO is a fallacy and I think his forecast bust badly

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[WPBWeather]

LC continues to say the experts are underplaying the upcoming cane season, including cape verde storms.

Yikes! If you are bullish on the season then we may be doomed here in FL!

Larry Cosgrove's forecast assumes this turns into a La Nina during the summer which IMO is a fallacy and I think his forecast bust badly

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products[/quote]

I was being somewhat tongue in cheek as Ninel is never bullish on anything... Anyway I thought LC was Levi Cowan not Larry Cosgrove

[gatorcane]

There appears to be some warming over the Far Eastern Atlantic near the Cape Verde region looking at the anomalies over the past 7 days:



That Atlantic MDR seems to be warming faster than normal looking at the past couple of weeks, which is due to the warming in the Far Eastern Atlantic region I would imagine. Question is does this warming continue or is it just temporary?

[ninel conde]

JB sounding the alarm for a possible GOM storm 10-17 days from now.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the Steering Pattern is about to finally change in the coming 7-10 days. With instead of the recently persistent East Coast Ridge/West and Central U.S. Trough, we will now see a complete 180 flip to East Coast Trough/West and Central U.S. Ridge.

This overall is good news for all! Especially Texas & Florida with Texas being literally deluged with rain and Florida(with the exception of extreme West Coast of FL) being nearly Bone Dry!

According to the local TWC forecast here in WPB they are showing 50% POP's for most of the 5-10 day forecast range. For the most part IMO they seem to have a better handle on their forecasts than the NWS has on theirs.

My question is will this pattern last or be temporary? This will be a huge key factor in the upcoming months for whatever may form in the Atlantic.

12z GFS


18z GFS


12z Euro

[Cyclenall]

Those 500 mb images posted are beyond revolting for my local weather prospects, the absolute last thing I want to see in a month like June or any warm month is what the 12z GFS showed . After putting up with that horrendous (actually the worst possible) pattern, seeing that pop up again anytime makes me puke with fiery rage.

Looks like the Steering Pattern is about to finally change in the coming 7-10 days. With instead of the recently persistent East Coast Ridge/West and Central U.S. Trough, we will now see a complete 180 flip to East Coast Trough/West and Central U.S. Ridge.

What do you mean finally change? Its been overall stuck in that crappy mode (peak Atlantic hurricane season wise) for 9 years give or take. If we're talking about a smaller timescale, the last 6 months have been in general East Coast Trough/West and Central U.S. Ridge so seeing it again is terrible. The flip is going from best to worst for all weather.

This overall is good news for all!

I know your not aware of this, but the majority of people in my part of North America can't stand this pattern and the level of despair it causes for heat lovers and wanters of summer, is very high. We didn't have summer last year because the whole year was an ice box with brutal cold winters. Its easily the worst modeling projection I could have seen. I can't describe how much I don't want that, its the worst news of all if it pans out.

My question is will this pattern last or be temporary? This will be a huge key factor in the upcoming months for whatever may form in the Atlantic.

I don't even think its a pattern considering not long ago we just got out of it. It may not be exactly the same as what winter had, but its close enough to put it in the yucky bin . 240 Hours out is borderline fantasy and if it happens (God forbid), it still doesn't mean its going to last to give some feedback on the first question.

[tolakram]

Let me post a couple of saved images for the first day of the season.

Vertical Instability; well below normal in the tropical Atlantic


Vertical Shear


Source: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/atlantic_00-24.asp

[tolakram]

Just for fun, the 48 hour Vertical Instability forecast.



Source: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/atlantic_24-48.asp

[ninel conde]

:uarrow: Those 500 mb images posted are beyond revolting for my local weather prospects, the absolute last thing I want to see in a month like June or any warm month is what the 12z GFS showed . After putting up with that horrendous (actually the worst possible) pattern, seeing that pop up again anytime makes me puke with fiery rage.

Looks like the Steering Pattern is about to finally change in the coming 7-10 days. With instead of the recently persistent East Coast Ridge/West and Central U.S. Trough, we will now see a complete 180 flip to East Coast Trough/West and Central U.S. Ridge.

What do you mean finally change? Its been overall stuck in that crappy mode (peak Atlantic hurricane season wise) for 9 years give or take. If we're talking about a smaller timescale, the last 6 months have been in general East Coast Trough/West and Central U.S. Ridge so seeing it again is terrible. The flip is going from best to worst for all weather.

This overall is good news for all!

I know your not aware of this, but the majority of people in my part of North America can't stand this pattern and the level of despair it causes for heat lovers and wanters of summer, is very high. We didn't have summer last year because the whole year was an ice box with brutal cold winters. Its easily the worst modeling projection I could have seen. I can't describe how much I don't want that, its the worst news of all if it pans out.

My question is will this pattern last or be temporary? This will be a huge key factor in the upcoming months for whatever may form in the Atlantic.

I don't even think its a pattern considering not long ago we just got out of it. It may not be exactly the same as what winter had, but its close enough to put it in the yucky bin . 240 Hours out is borderline fantasy and if it happens (God forbid), it still doesn't mean its going to last to give some feedback on the first question.

well said. Im sick to death of this ##*@#%^* east coast trof for the last 10 years. cant WE EVER have a ridge?

[ninel conde]

la nina and we have an east coast trof. el nino and we have an east coast trof. el neutral and we have an east coast trof. sick to death of it.

[gatorcane]

Ninel, we have had a strong EC ridge nearly the entire month of May and it is finally breaking down. Haven't seen that kind or ridge in May in a long time. I have a feeling the pattern is going to be different this hurricane season (because of the presence of a strong El Nino that looks to be developing that could buck the pattern over North America) and we won't see such a stubborn trough for months at a time. But the question is will there be any hurricanes out there when that ridge pattern is in place?

[abajan]

la nina and we have an east coast trof. el nino and we have an east coast trof. el neutral and we have an east coast trof. sick to death of it.

Well, there's nothing we can do about it. So, it's a waste of energy getting sick over it. The Serenity Prayer might help.